Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB072VM0X01C21A2000000/?unlock=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. </li>
<li>The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> should push back, changing their recommendation, which <em>might</em> cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei article out today at 6pm JST, the day before the Tender Offer close (after most shareholders would have decided to tender). This is slimy. Really bad. 
The original Shinsei pushback was the partial offer was coercive at a low price because it didn't offer a full exit. SBI said "only 48%." 

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) should push back, changing their recommendation, which might cause a 10-day extension. That would give investors a chance to withdraw.


SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.</li>
<li>The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.</li>
<li>In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. </li>
</ul>


Murakami-San bought more shares in Shinsei Bank and now he is up to 8.14% of shares out and nearly 10% of voting rights.
The timing and price of his new buy tell you more about the possibilities. It confirms his strategy was totally independent of the poison pill kerfuffle.
In this insight we walk through the post-tender positioning framework and its possibilities in some detail. 


Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.</li>
<li>Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.</li>
<li>Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) has now basically given up against the fierce opposition of SBI and the fact that its Poison Pill wasn't going to do more than delay things.
Shinsei Bank COULD HAVE said it would cancel the Poison Pill but still opposed the TOB because of the low price and coercive nature. It went neutral instead.
Now it is ARB vs FUTURE SQUEEZE. And the question is... Will Murakami-san? Or won't he? Whichever way you think, there is a decent little arb here.


Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

<ul>
<li>On 24 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> cancelled the Poison Pill EGM scheduled for 25 November, and changed its SBI TOB Opinion to Neutral. SBI has agreed to respect Shinsei...</li>
<li>...management policy &amp; business strategy as per 12 November DICJ letter, and effect stable transition of management. That it is a partial TOB at a too low price, so...</li>
<li>...Shinsei will not support. BUT... the BIGGEST problem comes next. And it is a doozy. There are post-tender complications which require contortions to resolve. </li>
</ul>


On 24 November, Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) cancelled the Poison Pill EGM scheduled for 25 November, and changed its SBI TOB Opinion to Neutral. SBI has agreed to respect Shinsei...
...management policy &amp; business strategy as per 12 November DICJ letter, and effect stable transition of management. That it is a partial TOB at a too low price, so...
...Shinsei will not support. BUT... the BIGGEST problem comes next. And it is a doozy. There are post-tender complications which require contortions to resolve. 


Shinsei Drops Opposition to SBI TOB; A Fascinating Post-Tender Game of 🐔

<ul>
<li>Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.</li>
<li>Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. </li>
<li>Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. </li>
</ul>


Overnight, NHK and Nikkei reported that the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan is leaning towards voting AGAINST the Poison Pill in the Shinsei EGM Thursday.
Given SBI has 20.32% of the vote and the DICJ has 23.31%, that would make passage of the Poison Pill defence more likely to fail. 
Investors should be looking at what could happen if the vote fails. 


Shinsei EGM:  Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

Japan

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Nagano Prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and trust accounts. The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, credit guarantee, debt recovery, trading, and venture capital and operates branches overseas.

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

The 77 Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank in Tohoku area.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and exchange transactions. The Bank also provides others financial services such as securities brokerage, trust banking, letter of credit, leasing, credit cards, and computer services.

The Gunma Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Gunma Prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction.  The Gunma Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, and investment advisory, and develops information systems.

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Yamaguchi Bank and Momiji Holdings. The Group provides variety of financial services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, leasing and credit cards.

Kyushu Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Higo Bank and Kagoshima Bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  Kyushu Financial Group also provides other financial services including security brokerage, credit cards, leasing, and letters of credit.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Associated Banc-Corp is a Midwest banking franchise headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Bank offers a full range of financial products and services through banking locations serving communities throughout Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, and commercial financial services in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Texas.

ServisFirst Bancshares Inc. operates as the holding company for ServisFirst Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services. The Company offers various deposit products, such as demand, time, and savings deposits, as well as negotiable orders of withdrawal accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRA accounts.

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

SBI To Apply for Bank Holding Company License Within Year And Squeeze Out Shinsei Minorities

SBI appears to be setting up to take majority control of Shinsei. The Nikkei carried an article about post-tender intentions for a takeover. This...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Parsing Murakami-San's Bet

Murakami-san has upped his position in Shinsei Bank yet again, this time adding after the EGM kerfuffle was resolved. That tells us something and...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303): Does Murakami-San...? Or Doesn't He? That Is The Question.

The Shinsei Bank (8303) Tender Offer Arb is now officially juicy. There is a question of whether Murakami-san will tender or whether he won't. That...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Drops Opposition to SBI TOB; A Fascinating Post-Tender Game of 🐔

Shinsei has announced it is calling off the Poison Pill EGM and going "neutral" on the Tender Offer. That means the TOB is going to be...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei EGM: Govt May Vote AGAINST But Could Shinsei Rig The Vote?

The news overnight (on what is a national holiday) is that the DICJ is leaning towards "not voting FOR" the Shinsei Poison Pill. That doesn't mean...

Travis Lundy

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