Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. </li>
<li>It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. </li>
<li>Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. 
It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. 
Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>I see no new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro (TYR AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True (TRUE TB)</a></strong> / <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
I see no new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week.
Key updates took place for Tyro (TYR AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), and True (TRUE TB) / Total Access Communication (DTAC TB).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."</li>
<li>This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.</li>
<li>It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."
This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.
It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.


Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>Our latest Webinar looks at news updates on Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction. To help us explore the implications for investors, we welcome Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> of Quiddity Advisors. </p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85181403738" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div></div><p>Travis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.</p>

Our latest Webinar looks at news updates on Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction. To help us explore the implications for investors, we welcome Insight Provider Travis Lundy of Quiddity Advisors. The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 12 October 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereTravis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.

Smartkarma Webinar | Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction Updates

<ul>
<li>As a follow-on to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-october-2022-rebal-big-names-with-big-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:81835" rel="noopener">TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows</a> which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.</li>
<li>In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.</li>
<li>Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.</li>
</ul>


As a follow-on to TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - BIG Names with BIG Flows which discussed ¥2.1trln a side flows overall, this insight analyses and proposes intra-sector baskets.
In general, the sector-neutral BUYs vs SELLs baskets of all names where Index Shares change by 10% or more have seen BUYs sharply outperform SELLs in the past three weeks.
Look for pre-positioning unwinds so trading BUY vs SELL baskets which have bucked the trend, banks and chemicals - might be worthwhile. Otherwise, pick your spots. Use the flow.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

Japan

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Nagano Prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and trust accounts. The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, credit guarantee, debt recovery, trading, and venture capital and operates branches overseas.

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

Fukuoka Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of the Bank of Fukuoka and Kumamoto Family Bank. As a financial group, the Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions. The Company also provides other financial services such as credit card, letter of credit, and leasing services.

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

The 77 Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank in Tohoku area.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and exchange transactions. The Bank also provides others financial services such as securities brokerage, trust banking, letter of credit, leasing, credit cards, and computer services.

The Gunma Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Gunma Prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction.  The Gunma Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, and investment advisory, and develops information systems.

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Yamaguchi Bank and Momiji Holdings. The Group provides variety of financial services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, leasing and credit cards.

Kyushu Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Higo Bank and Kagoshima Bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  Kyushu Financial Group also provides other financial services including security brokerage, credit cards, leasing, and letters of credit.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is a banking and financial services holding company. The Company provides a range of services including commercial and consumer banking, investment banking, and insurance broking. Through its subsidiaries, Hong Leong Financial underwrites life/general insurance, provides funds management, corporate advisory, and stock and share broking services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

United Community Banks, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company with locations throughout north Georgia and western North Carolina.  The Banks are community oriented and offer retail and corporate banking services including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts, secured and unsecured loans, wire transfers, trust services, and rental of safe deposit boxes.

Associated Banc-Corp is a Midwest banking franchise headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Bank offers a full range of financial products and services through banking locations serving communities throughout Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota, and commercial financial services in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Texas.

ServisFirst Bancshares Inc. operates as the holding company for ServisFirst Bank that provides consumer and commercial banking services. The Company offers various deposit products, such as demand, time, and savings deposits, as well as negotiable orders of withdrawal accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRA accounts.

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

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SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

The October 2022 TOPIX FFW rebalance - ¥2.1trln a side - is to be executed on Friday. There are some large flows on event names, and elsewhere. The...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Fengxiang, Singapore Medical, Shinsei Bank, True/DTAC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Shinsei was yesterday reported to be "planning to privatise Shinsei Bank" and today "no concrete steps are being considered to delist the Bank"....

Travis Lundy

Smartkarma Webinar | Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction Updates

Smartkarma is hosting a webinar with Analyst Travis Lundy, who will cover Shinsei, Toa Oil, and Toyo Construction News Updates

Smartkarma Research

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Buy/Sell Baskets (May the Flow Be Ever In Your Favour)

This companion piece to the first October 2022 FFW Rebalance piece shows both large (>¥5bn) and small (¥1-5bn) intra-sector flows. Using the flows...

Travis Lundy

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