Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

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ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property in Texas, in the United States, which will be its third student accommodation asset investment this year.

While ART may be the first Singapore-listed trust to venture into student housing as S-Reits continue to diversify across property sub-segments, there are other Singapore-listed companies such as Singapore Press Holdings SPH: T39 +1.03% , Far East Orchard Far East Orchard: O10 -3.64% , Centurion Corporation Centurion: OU8 0% , Wee Hur Wee Hur: E3B 0% , and Metro Holdings Metro: M01 0% that invest, own, and manage purpose built student accommodation assets (PBSA).

According to Knight Frank, global investments in PBSA reached a record US$16.3 billion in 2018.

Savills considers the PBSA sector to be counter-cyclical and notes in a report that it was one of the few asset classes that showed resilience during the global financial crisis in 2008.

In addition, data collated by Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) has shown that over a third of deals for student housing in 2021 so far have been by private equity firms, as investors continue to seek exposure to alternative real estate sectors.

ART's most recent acquisition is a freehold 1,005-bed student accommodation asset in Lubbock, Texas, for S$93.8 million. Wildwood Lubbock is a cottage-style property that is fully leased for the 2021 academic year and serves over 40,000 students from Texas Tech University.

The trust expects the acquisition to increase its pro forma FY2020 distribution per stapled security by approximately 1.5 per cent.

It also notes the longer average leases of student housing at one year, versus hotel stays.

ART has acquired four longer-stay accommodation assets this year, after expanding its strategy and diversifying its portfolio from traditional hospitality assets, further increasing its resilience and stable income.

Its two other student housing assets are in Atlanta (acquired in February 2021 for S$126.3 million) and South Carolina (acquired in June 2021 for S$73.4 million), both in the US.

In June 2021, ART also acquired three rental housing properties in Sapporo, Japan for S$85.2 million.

Following the acquisitions, ART's rental housing and student accommodation properties will comprise about 11 per cent of its portfolio value, up from 5 per cent in end 2020. It has a medium-term target to expand it to 15 to 20 per cent.

CDL Hospitality Trust CDL HTrust: J85 -0.85% (CDLHT) in July this year has announced that it is revising its principal investment strategy to include rental housing, student accommodation and senior housing assets.

The trust sees the revision of its strategy as a way to bring more diversification to its portfolio, enhance income stability as tenants typically have longer lengths of stay compared to hotels, and expand its range of investment opportunities given its broader mandate.

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) has a portfolio of 28 PBSA assets in the UK with a total of 7,723 beds under its brands Capitol Students, Student Castle, and Galileo Residenz.

Far East Orchard owns a PBSA portfolio in the UK comprising over 3,500 beds in the cities of Brighton, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Sheffield.

Centurion Corporation has a PBSA segment with 19 assets in Australia, South Korea, the UK and US that accounted for 25 per cent of its revenue in H12021.

Wee Hur Holdings' PBSA business is undertaken via two of its funds which manage two operational assets, one asset pending operations and the rest at various stages of development.

Metro Holdings' PBSA portfolio consists of two properties in Warwick and Bristol, in the UK, and a 7.3 per cent investment in the Mapletree Global Student Accommodation Private Trust. 

REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/ascott-joins-trend-of-hospitality-reits-pivoting-to-student-housing">read</a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/10-s-reits-yielding-long-term-annualised-returns"> </a>the original version.
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    Reaching into rental homes, student housing.png


ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property in Texas, in the United States, which will be its third student accommodation asset investment this year.

While ART may be the first Singapore-listed trust to venture into student housing as S-Reits continue to diversify across property sub-segments, there are other Singapore-listed companies such as Singapore Press Holdings SPH: T39 +1.03% , Far East Orchard Far East Orchard: O10 -3.64% , Centurion Corporation Centurion: OU8 0% , Wee Hur Wee Hur: E3B 0% , and Metro Holdings Metro: M01 0% that invest, own, and manage purpose built student accommodation assets (PBSA).

According to Knight Frank, global investments in PBSA reached a record US$16.3 billion in 2018.

Savills considers the PBSA sector to be counter-cyclical and notes in a report that it was one of the few asset classes that showed resilience during the global financial crisis in 2008.

In addition, data collated by Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) has shown that over a third of deals for student housing in 2021 so far have been by private equity firms, as investors continue to seek exposure to alternative real estate sectors.

ART's most recent acquisition is a freehold 1,005-bed student accommodation asset in Lubbock, Texas, for S$93.8 million. Wildwood Lubbock is a cottage-style property that is fully leased for the 2021 academic year and serves over 40,000 students from Texas Tech University.

The trust expects the acquisition to increase its pro forma FY2020 distribution per stapled security by approximately 1.5 per cent.

It also notes the longer average leases of student housing at one year, versus hotel stays.

ART has acquired four longer-stay accommodation assets this year, after expanding its strategy and diversifying its portfolio from traditional hospitality assets, further increasing its resilience and stable income.

Its two other student housing assets are in Atlanta (acquired in February 2021 for S$126.3 million) and South Carolina (acquired in June 2021 for S$73.4 million), both in the US.

In June 2021, ART also acquired three rental housing properties in Sapporo, Japan for S$85.2 million.

Following the acquisitions, ART's rental housing and student accommodation properties will comprise about 11 per cent of its portfolio value, up from 5 per cent in end 2020. It has a medium-term target to expand it to 15 to 20 per cent.

CDL Hospitality Trust CDL HTrust: J85 -0.85% (CDLHT) in July this year has announced that it is revising its principal investment strategy to include rental housing, student accommodation and senior housing assets.

The trust sees the revision of its strategy as a way to bring more diversification to its portfolio, enhance income stability as tenants typically have longer lengths of stay compared to hotels, and expand its range of investment opportunities given its broader mandate.

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) has a portfolio of 28 PBSA assets in the UK with a total of 7,723 beds under its brands Capitol Students, Student Castle, and Galileo Residenz.

Far East Orchard owns a PBSA portfolio in the UK comprising over 3,500 beds in the cities of Brighton, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Sheffield.

Centurion Corporation has a PBSA segment with 19 assets in Australia, South Korea, the UK and US that accounted for 25 per cent of its revenue in H12021.

Wee Hur Holdings' PBSA business is undertaken via two of its funds which manage two operational assets, one asset pending operations and the rest at various stages of development.

Metro Holdings' PBSA portfolio consists of two properties in Warwick and Bristol, in the UK, and a 7.3 per cent investment in the Mapletree Global Student Accommodation Private Trust. 

REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Ascott joins trend of hospitality Reits pivoting to student housing

Diversified Industries

Avi Dalfen

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New industry data this week, plus take-aways from  our latest discussions with company managements, all confirm that the likely trend in the industrial segment of the global real estate industry is for rental rates to rise.</li>
<li>The growth in e-commerce is continuing to accelerate globally. In some key market, this is "triggering a land grab for distribution space that experts say is accelerating".</li>
<li>Therefore, the increasing scarcity value of well situated industrial real estate in high demand markets is likely to continue to push up rental rates to higher and higher levels.</li>
<li>Given our expectation that fundamentals driving the growing demand for Last Mile Industrial real estate are likely to persist, we continue to expect this segment to outperform the broader Real Estate sector for the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


New industry data this week, plus take-aways from  our latest discussions with company managements, all confirm that the likely trend in the industrial segment of the global real estate industry is for rental rates to rise.
The growth in e-commerce is continuing to accelerate globally. In some key market, this is "triggering a land grab for distribution space that experts say is accelerating".
Therefore, the increasing scarcity value of well situated industrial real estate in high demand markets is likely to continue to push up rental rates to higher and higher levels.
Given our expectation that fundamentals driving the growing demand for Last Mile Industrial real estate are likely to persist, we continue to expect this segment to outperform the broader Real Estate sector for the foreseeable future.


Rental Rates for Last Mile Industrial Real Estate Poised to Move Higher in Most Key Global Markets

United Kingdom

Savills Plc provides consulting services and transactional advice on matters related to commercial, agricultural and residential property. The Company also provides property and facilities management, financial services and funds management.

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Savills PLC (SVS LN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

REIT Watch - Ascott joins trend of hospitality Reits pivoting to student housing

ASCOTT Residence Trust Ascott Trust: HMN -0.51% (ART) announced last week that it will acquire a student accommodation property...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Rental Rates for Last Mile Industrial Real Estate Poised to Move Higher in Most Key Global Markets

New industry data this week, plus take-aways from our latest discussions with company managements, all confirm that the likely trend in...

Avi Dalfen

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52-week Range

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