Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

Malaysia

Wah Seong Corporation Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides pipe-coating services, manufactures spiral welded steel pipes, distributes building materials, installs metal roofing, produces plastic extrusion structural materials, assembles plastic doors and window frames, and provides industrial engineering services.

Icon Offshore Bhd is a pure-play offshore support vessel (OSV) provider in Malaysia.  The Company provides a wide range of logistical support services throughout the entire entire offshore oil and gas life cycle, from exploration and appraisal, field development and operation and maintenance, through to decommissioning.

Perdana Petroleum BHD provides offshore Marine and Integrated Brown Field Services for the upstream oil & gas industry.

Deleum Bhd. is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of products and services to the oil and gas industry, including gas turbine technical services, exploration and production equipment and services, gas turbine packages, specialized products and services and oilfield chemical and services

Uzma Bhd is an investment holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries works with provision of oil and gas geoscience and reservoir engineering services, provision of oil and gas drilling and operations services and provision of oil and gas project and operations services. Uzma activities also include oil and gas engineer and personal replacement and management systems.

Petra Energy Bhd. is an investment holding company. The Company's core business activities in integrated brown field services include operations & maintenance, oil field optimization, retrofits, domestic vessel re-chartering, design and fabrication of process equipment and packaging and supply of engineered equipment for the oil and gas industry.

Tanjung Offshore Bhd., through its subsidiaries, provides integrated services and equipment to the oil and gas and related industries in Malaysia. The Company's services include engineering equipment and spare parts, marine services, and maintenance and other support services.

KNM Group Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company designs, manufactures, and maintains process equipment, pressure vessels, heat exchangers, skid mounted assemblies, process pipe systems, storage tanks, specialized structural assemblies and module assemblies for the oil, gas and petrochemical industries.

Marine & General Berhad provides marine transportation support services. The Company offers marine logistics services to the upstream and downstream oil and gas industries.

Carimin Petroleum Berhad provides technical and engineering support services to clients within the Oil and Gas Industry in Malaysia. The Company specializes in engineering, scheduled/work pack development, procurement, structural/piping fabrication, electrical/instrumentation installation, pre-commissioning and commissioning activities.

Jutal Offshore Oil Services Limited provides technical support services in offshore oil and natural gas exploration and production. The Company also desgins, fabricates and sells oil and natural gas processing skid equipment.

Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co., Ltd. conducts mobile survey and provides technical services for oil and gas explorations.

Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Tech (002207 CH)

Jindal Drilling & Industries Ltd. explores for and produces oil and gas properties in the offshore areas of India.

Mermaid Maritime PCL is a provider of drilling and sub-sea engineering services for the offshore oil and gas industry. The Company's sub-sea engineering division services clients in South East Asia, India, China, Sakhlin, the North Sea, the Middle East and South America.

TOYO KANETSU K.K. manufactures conveyors and automated warehousing equipment used in distribution systems.  The Company also designs, manufactures, sells, and installs crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) low-temperature tanks.

Anton Oilfield Services Group provides onshore oilfield services and products. The Company provides oilfield services and products in the areas of well, drilling, production, and field services.

Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd. researches , develops, and manufactures petroleum exploration instrument and petroleum machinery.

Asian Oilfield Services Ltd. carries out manual and mechanized shot hole drilling activities at Ahmedabad.

Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery Company Limited manufactures and sells petroleum extraction machinery and related accessories.  The Company's products include five main categories, namely, oil well pipes, oil well sucker rods, oil well pumps, oil well pumping machines, and other petroleum extraction machinery accessories.

Sevan Marine ASA manufactures equipment for the offshore oil and natural gas industry.  The Company designs and produces floating production and storage platforms.

SapuraEnergy is a full fledged upstream oil and gas company. The Company provides engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning services through its fabrication, hook-up and commissioning, and Offshore Construction and Subsea Services divisions.

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Sapura Energy (SAPE MK)

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

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