Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There are 38 adds/36 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 4.35% and a two-way trade of JPY 461bn (US$3.24bn).
There are a few stocks that will have same way flow from other index trackers within a few weeks of the JPX Nikkei 400 Index rebalance.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> expects generic competition for mainstay product in Japan in FY24, while overseas business should continue stable growth. The company guided for FY24 revenue of ¥273B (-2%).</li>
<li>Due to the absence of impairment loss, Santen is expected to report operating profit of ¥32B in FY24 from an operating loss of ¥3B in FY23.</li>
<li>Santen has unveiled new medium-term management plan, which calls for revenue of ¥280B, core operating profit of ¥56B, core ROE ratio of 13%, and core EPS growth rate of 10%+.</li>
</ul>



Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) expects generic competition for mainstay product in Japan in FY24, while overseas business should continue stable growth. The company guided for FY24 revenue of ¥273B (-2%).
Due to the absence of impairment loss, Santen is expected to report operating profit of ¥32B in FY24 from an operating loss of ¥3B in FY23.
Santen has unveiled new medium-term management plan, which calls for revenue of ¥280B, core operating profit of ¥56B, core ROE ratio of 13%, and core EPS growth rate of 10%+.


Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP): Aims to Ride Patent Cliff Through Focus on Improving Profitability

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

<ul>
<li>In 1Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peptidream-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1" rel="noopener">Peptidream Inc (4587 JP)</a> recorded revenue of ¥4,963 million, compared to ¥419 million revenue in year-ago period, driven by radiopharmaceutical business segment, which contributed 80% of total revenue.</li>
<li>As of March 31, 2023, the company’s pipeline consisted of 127 discovery and development programs (representing a net increase of 1 program from the end of the prior financial year).</li>
<li>Peptidream reiterated guidance for full-year 2024. Revenue is expected to increase 12% to ¥30B in 2024, while operating and net profits are expected to decline 30% and 64%, respectively.    </li>
</ul>


In 1Q23, Peptidream Inc (4587 JP) recorded revenue of ¥4,963 million, compared to ¥419 million revenue in year-ago period, driven by radiopharmaceutical business segment, which contributed 80% of total revenue.
As of March 31, 2023, the company’s pipeline consisted of 127 discovery and development programs (representing a net increase of 1 program from the end of the prior financial year).
Peptidream reiterated guidance for full-year 2024. Revenue is expected to increase 12% to ¥30B in 2024, while operating and net profits are expected to decline 30% and 64%, respectively.    


Peptidream (4587 JP): 1Q23 Result- Radiopharma Drove Sales; Losses Narrowed; Guidance Reiterated

Japan

SANTEN PHARMACEUTICAL CO., LTD. produces and sells ophthalmic medicine.  The Company manufactures a variety of products including eye drops and ointments. Santen Pharmaceutical also imports lenses and tools and equipment used by optometrists and produces anti-rheumatic drugs.

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Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Some Big Impact Names

There are 38 adds and 36 deletes for the JPXNK400 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes and there is a fair bit to trade on a lot of...

Brian Freitas