Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore </h2><h3>Commercial properties set for big change; Long-term reduction in supply likely</h3><ul><li>Offices in the CBD, especially older buildings, need to evolve. Both the Central Business District Incentive (CBDI) Scheme and Strategic Development Incentive (SDI) Scheme were introduced to incentivise the redevelopment of older buildings to more productive mixed-use developments. Under the CBDI scheme, qualifying properties are allowed to intensify their GFA by 25-30%, depending on the proposed land use. Meanwhile, the SDI is intended to redevelop precincts in strategic areas across Singapore, such as Orchard Road, the CBD and Marina Centre</li><li>Since the circuit-breaker period, URA has received nine outline applications under the CBDI Scheme, of which six have been given in-principle approval. Three outline applications under the SDI Scheme were also given in-principle approval. The take-up of these schemes are also likely to result in the long-term reduction of office stock in the CBD, which plays a part in the government's decentralisation strategy to have more offices located outside the city centre, CBRE said.</li></ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/216/388/original/image018.png?1625188834" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="216388"></figure></section>

Singapore Commercial properties set for big change; Long-term reduction in supply likelyOffices in the CBD, especially older buildings, need to evolve. Both the Central Business District Incentive (CBDI) Scheme and Strategic Development Incentive (SDI) Scheme were introduced to incentivise the redevelopment of older buildings to more productive mixed-use developments. Under the CBDI scheme, qualifying properties are allowed to intensify their GFA by 25-30%, depending on the proposed land use. Meanwhile, the SDI is intended to redevelop precincts in strategic areas across Singapore, such as Orchard Road, the CBD and Marina CentreSince the circuit-breaker period, URA has received nine outline applications under the CBDI Scheme, of which six have been given in-principle approval. Three outline applications under the SDI Scheme were also given in-principle approval. The take-up of these schemes are also likely to result in the long-term reduction of office stock in the CBD, which plays a part in the government's decentralisation strategy to have more offices located outside the city centre, CBRE said.

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (2Jul21) - CBD Office Reduction in LT Supply

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<p>We are launching coverage of debt tokens with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siri-hub-investment-digital-tokens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33515:1" rel="noopener">Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY)</a> (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As such, we expect the SEC’s decision by 5-August.</p><p>Our conversation with the SEC on 29-June leads us to believe XSpring Digital will need to revise its token prospectus in July. That said, we do not expect the token to be launched until August. We reached out to XSpring Digital to get our initial questions answered but so far the company has not replied to us. Although the sale is not finalized yet, we believe it is of investor interest to understand the proposed structure of SIRIHUB to react in time when the token is up for sale.</p><p>Our initial thought on the token is that SIRIHUB-A at up to 4.5% dividend yield is unattractive, compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansiri-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12201:1" rel="noopener">Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)</a> (Sansiri)’s 4-year THB bond yield which hovers in the mid 4% handle at the time of this report. That said, SIRIHUB-B at up to 8.25% dividend yield is a much better choice, in our view, although SIRIHUB-B takes structural subordination to SIRIHUB-A. SIRIHUB-B is a better carry at 8.25% dividend yield (than SIRIHUB-A’s). Sansiri is rated “BBB+” by TRIS Rating. Assuming a one-notch lower rating for SIRIHUB-B at “BBB” on a national scale, SIRIHUB-B’s international scale rating could be in the “B” or “B-“ category. At a “B” credit rating on an international scale, we believe investors can still find 4-year Asian USD bonds with a yield-to-worst of more than an 8.25% handle.</p><p>Overall, we believe the upside of both tokens is rather limited by (1) the value of Siri Campus which could be lower than THB2.4bn now on COVID-19; (2) a lack of income diversification; and (3) a lack of liquidity as Thailand’s first debt token. That said, we see both SIRIHUB-A and SIRIHUB-B as unattractive at the current offering despite the better carry for SIRIHUB-B.</p>

We are launching coverage of debt tokens with Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY) (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As such, we expect the SEC’s decision by 5-August.Our conversation with the SEC on 29-June leads us to believe XSpring Digital will need to revise its token prospectus in July. That said, we do not expect the token to be launched until August. We reached out to XSpring Digital to get our initial questions answered but so far the company has not replied to us. Although the sale is not finalized yet, we believe it is of investor interest to understand the proposed structure of SIRIHUB to react in time when the token is up for sale.Our initial thought on the token is that SIRIHUB-A at up to 4.5% dividend yield is unattractive, compared to Sansiri Public (SIRI TB) (Sansiri)’s 4-year THB bond yield which hovers in the mid 4% handle at the time of this report. That said, SIRIHUB-B at up to 8.25% dividend yield is a much better choice, in our view, although SIRIHUB-B takes structural subordination to SIRIHUB-A. SIRIHUB-B is a better carry at 8.25% dividend yield (than SIRIHUB-A’s). Sansiri is rated “BBB+” by TRIS Rating. Assuming a one-notch lower rating for SIRIHUB-B at “BBB” on a national scale, SIRIHUB-B’s international scale rating could be in the “B” or “B-“ category. At a “B” credit rating on an international scale, we believe investors can still find 4-year Asian USD bonds with a yield-to-worst of more than an 8.25% handle.Overall, we believe the upside of both tokens is rather limited by (1) the value of Siri Campus which could be lower than THB2.4bn now on COVID-19; (2) a lack of income diversification; and (3) a lack of liquidity as Thailand’s first debt token. That said, we see both SIRIHUB-A and SIRIHUB-B as unattractive at the current offering despite the better carry for SIRIHUB-B.

SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div>
<h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3>
<p>In Indonesia<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-a-plethora-of-good-news" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News</a>,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back a call with<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a> revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-mandiri-persero-bmri-ij-the-unsung-hero-of-syariah" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah?</a> , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/metrodata-electronic-mtdl-ij-a-rare-value-play-on-indonesia-s-digitalization" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> highlights why<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xl-axiata-excl-ij-enabling-and-converging-in-indonesia" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> XL Axiata (EXCL IJ),</a> one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sunpower-read-across-from-buyout-of-zheneng-jinjiang-fair-value-remains-at-1-sgd-63-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44133" rel="noopener">Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunpower-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18395:1" rel="noopener">Sunpower Group (SPWG SP)</a> post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. </p>
<p>In Thailand<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-radar-nforce-secure-new-player-in-thai-cyber-security" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security</a>, Thai Specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wilmar-is-a-buy-after-yka-s-listing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44228" rel="noopener">Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> following the successful listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29184:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).</a></p>
<p>In Singapore<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sgx-sgx-sp-market-under-rates-its-growth-potential" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victor-galliano" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Victor Galliano</a> discusses why he feels<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SGX (SGX SP)</a> is undervalued. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/business-dna-suksan-yasasin-of-chayo-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44242" rel="noopener">Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ori-expect-flat-3q20-earnings-but-strong-recovery-in-4q20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44163" rel="noopener">ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-property-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26762:1" rel="noopener">Origin Property (ORI TB)</a> ahead of the company's earnings. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/com7-upgrade-super-cycle-for-iphone-users" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44208" rel="noopener">COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. </p>
<h3>Sector and Thematic Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-45-lobster-alliance-cp-all-goes-to-laos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42866" rel="noopener">Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sti-index-rebalance-kdcreit-included-flt-misses-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44178" rel="noopener">STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out,</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  </p>
<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/msci-nov20-index-rebalance-preview-asean-em-edition" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Brian Freitas</a> looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. </p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kasikornbank-s-inaugural-at1-underweight-on-franchise-challenges-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44176" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation,</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/hank-calenti-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:5194" rel="noopener">Hank Calenti, CFA</a> comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank's (KBANK)</a> inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Equity Bottom-Up Insights
In Indonesia Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - A Plethora of Good News,  Cross-ASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh reports back a call with Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) revealed a relatively positive message on a number of fronts, which came as a rare positive surprise. 
In Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ) - The Unsung Hero of Syariah? , Cross-ASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh sees potential positive catalysts in the merger of three State-owned Syariah banks. He believes that Mandiri Syariah,  given it has the largest Syariah business and generating an ROE in excess of 15%, will take the lead in the merged entity. 
In Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization, Angus Mackintosh highlights why Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) looks undervalued, as it benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 
In XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Enabling and Converging in Indonesia, Angus Mackintosh revisits XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), one of the key enablers of the Indonesian digital economy, with around 90% of revenues coming from data and 75% of its subscriber base on 4G. Smartkarma hosted a Webinar with XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) last week, which revealed a positive long-term picture, despite some near term competitive headwinds. 
In Sunpower: Read Across from Buyout of Zheneng JinJiang; Fair Value Remains at 1 SGD (63% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Sunpower Group (SPWG SP) post a Smartakarma webinar with the company. 
In Thailand IPO Radar: NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security, Thai Specialist Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a look at NForce Secure, New Player in Thai Cyber Security.  
In Wilmar Is A Buy After YKA’s Listing,David Blennerhassett revisits Wilmar International (WIL SP) following the successful listing of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (YKA CH).
In Singapore SGX (SGX SP): Market Under-Rates Its Growth Potential, Victor Galliano discusses why he feels SGX (SGX SP) is undervalued. 
In Business DNA: Suksan Yasasin of Chayo Group,Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA conducts an interview with Suksan Yasasin, the CEO of Chayo Group. Business DNA is a chance to dig into the essential makeup of business leaders and their organizations. The focus is not on the short term but rather on understanding the driving forces of a business. 
In ORI: Expect Flat 3Q20 Earnings but Strong Recovery in 4Q20, our friends at Country Group revisit Origin Property (ORI TB) ahead of the company's earnings. 
In COM7: Upgrade Super Cycle for iPhone Users, Country Group revisits this electronics distributor in light of the announcement of the launch of the new iPhone 12. 
Sector and Thematic Insights
In Snippets #45: Lobster Alliance, CP All Goes to Laos, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five developments over the past week that may impact Thai equities.
In STI Index Rebalance: KDCREIT Included, FLT Misses Out, Brian Freitas comments on the recent FTSE STI Index rebalance.  
In MSCI Nov20 Index Rebalance Preview - ASEAN EM Edition, Brian Freitas looks at the upcoming MSCI ASEAN EM scheduled rebalancing. 
Credit Insights
In Kasikornbank’s Inaugural AT1 – Underweight on Franchise Challenges and Valuation, credit specialist Hank Calenti, CFA comments on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)'s inaugural AT1 bond. He suggests to Underweight Kasikornbank's (KBANK) inaugural Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond on franchise challenges and valuation. 

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>With strong earnings from a equity income provide an attractive dividend yield at 6%-7%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of Bt2.4 (down from Bt2.6) based on 10xPE’21E which its a five-years average.</p><ul>
<li>The fall in 1Q20 earnings both YoY and QoQ was primarily pressured by weakening earnings from residential business which sunk 81%YoY to Bt80m. Meanwhile, equity income dropped only 5.6% YoY to Bt431m.</li>
<li><span>We expect 2Q20 earnings to soft down 25%YoY and 10%QoQ, given lower contribution from associated companies especially from HMPRO. Meanwhile, we expect residential transfer units to remain weak QoQ due to low visited rate, but likely to be the bottom quarter.</span></li>
<li><span>We maintain positive view in 2020-21E backed by stable equity income from associated companies (mostly from HMPRO) and several projects in pipeline worth over Bt48bn.</span></li>
</ul>

With strong earnings from a equity income provide an attractive dividend yield at 6%-7%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of Bt2.4 (down from Bt2.6) based on 10xPE’21E which its a five-years average.
The fall in 1Q20 earnings both YoY and QoQ was primarily pressured by weakening earnings from residential business which sunk 81%YoY to Bt80m. Meanwhile, equity income dropped only 5.6% YoY to Bt431m.
We expect 2Q20 earnings to soft down 25%YoY and 10%QoQ, given lower contribution from associated companies especially from HMPRO. Meanwhile, we expect residential transfer units to remain weak QoQ due to low visited rate, but likely to be the bottom quarter.
We maintain positive view in 2020-21E backed by stable equity income from associated companies (mostly from HMPRO) and several projects in pipeline worth over Bt48bn.


Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

<p>Five interesting trends/development that may involve Thai equities include:</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>Thai household debts </strong>now highest in the ASEAN region and second only to Korea in Asia. SCB, arguably the most affected bank, developed a proportionate payroll app to prevent them from incurring debts.</li>
<li>
<strong>Sneak Peek into PTTOR.</strong> More updates about PTT's current station count and Amazon Cafe stores, as well as the non-Amazon restaurant chains also owned by PTT.</li>
<li>
<strong>Weakening sentiments for Tanatorn. </strong>The opposition hotshot appears to be rocked by a number of setbacks and allegations ranging from his mother's ownership of reserved lands, his party's loss at the local elections, and breakaway of various working teams.</li>
<li>
<strong>End of LTF. </strong>The end of this tax-exempt investment program and its replacement by a less favorable product SEF is negative for the overall market, but could be beneficial to 'sustainable' stocks.</li>
<li>
<strong>Property prices in Bangkok rose 17%</strong> , though it was much driven by the outskirts. There is low-base effects in play here along with the anticipated opening of new BTS lines.</li>
</ul>

Five interesting trends/development that may involve Thai equities include:

Thai household debts now highest in the ASEAN region and second only to Korea in Asia. SCB, arguably the most affected bank, developed a proportionate payroll app to prevent them from incurring debts.

Sneak Peek into PTTOR. More updates about PTT's current station count and Amazon Cafe stores, as well as the non-Amazon restaurant chains also owned by PTT.

Weakening sentiments for Tanatorn. The opposition hotshot appears to be rocked by a number of setbacks and allegations ranging from his mother's ownership of reserved lands, his party's loss at the local elections, and breakaway of various working teams.

End of LTF. The end of this tax-exempt investment program and its replacement by a less favorable product SEF is negative for the overall market, but could be beneficial to 'sustainable' stocks.

Property prices in Bangkok rose 17% , though it was much driven by the outskirts. There is low-base effects in play here along with the anticipated opening of new BTS lines.


Snippets #31: PTTOR Intro, LTF Replacement

Thailand

Sansiri Public Company Limited develops real estate projects for sales and rentals.  Its projects include resort condominiums, residential and office buildings.  The Company also provides property and project management services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (2Jul21) - CBD Office Reduction in LT Supply

GCB deals YTD surpassed 2020; HDB prices 2.1% shy of 2Q13 peak; Indo shuts down malls; SIRI begins accepting cryptos; Phils tourist arrivals sanked

SCCM Asia Research

SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

Thailand's first debt token is under SEC review. See how the token is structured, how the story came together, and whether "SIRIHUB" is investable.

Bondcritic

The NEW Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Syariah Banking, XL Axiata, and Telkom's Tower Spinoff

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

QH: Expect 2Q20 to Be the Bottom Quarter

With strong earnings from a equity income provide an attractive dividend yield at 6%-7%. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating with a new target...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Snippets #31: PTTOR Intro, LTF Replacement

Five interesting trends/development that may involve Thai equities include: Thai household debts now highest in the ASEAN region and second only...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)