Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), as the long- term growth in our valuation matrix has been lifted to “strong,” more bullish than the “positive” outlook presented in the previous report.</li><li>We have changed the valuation method to the earnings yield instead of PBV. This results in a new fair value of Bt2.31, close to the previous value, based on the 12M EPS estimate, discounted by the required rate of return of 12.6%. SIRI’s earnings are the key factor driving the fair value (see page 2 for further details).</li><li>The high interim dividend yield of 5.3% (DPS: Bt0.1) will serve as the near-term share price catalyst. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), as the long- term growth in our valuation matrix has been lifted to “strong,” more bullish than the “positive” outlook presented in the previous report.We have changed the valuation method to the earnings yield instead of PBV. This results in a new fair value of Bt2.31, close to the previous value, based on the 12M EPS estimate, discounted by the required rate of return of 12.6%. SIRI’s earnings are the key factor driving the fair value (see page 2 for further details).The high interim dividend yield of 5.3% (DPS: Bt0.1) will serve as the near-term share price catalyst. 

SANSIRI Plc. - Maintaining Growth Momentum in 2H23E

<ul><li>SIRI reported a 2Q23 net profit of Bt1.62bn, in line with the market’s projection but 24% better than our estimate, due mainly to the booking of after-tax gain from land sales amounting to Bt402mn.</li><li>Excluding this extra item, SIRI’s core profit was Bt1.22bn (+32% YoY and +10% QoQ), 7% lower than our expectation, as the gross profit margin (GPM) was narrower than expected (at 32.2% vs. the expected 32.5%), and SG&amp;A expenses were 20% higher than expected.</li><li>Revenue increased by 26% YoY and 20% QoQ to Bt9.2bn, driven by revenue from property project sales (+21% YoY and 19% QoQ to Bt8.0bn, accounting for 87% of total revenue).</li></ul>

SIRI reported a 2Q23 net profit of Bt1.62bn, in line with the market’s projection but 24% better than our estimate, due mainly to the booking of after-tax gain from land sales amounting to Bt402mn.Excluding this extra item, SIRI’s core profit was Bt1.22bn (+32% YoY and +10% QoQ), 7% lower than our expectation, as the gross profit margin (GPM) was narrower than expected (at 32.2% vs. the expected 32.5%), and SG&amp;A expenses were 20% higher than expected.Revenue increased by 26% YoY and 20% QoQ to Bt9.2bn, driven by revenue from property project sales (+21% YoY and 19% QoQ to Bt8.0bn, accounting for 87% of total revenue).

Earnings Review - Sansiri Plc. (SIRI) - AUGUST 15, 2023

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens / Credit

<p>This research follows our first report on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siri-hub-investment-digital-tokens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33515:1" rel="noopener">Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY)</a> (SIRIHUB) published on 30-June ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/spv77-siri-hub-investment-digital-token-thailand-s-first-debt-token" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53833" rel="noopener">SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token</a> ). We advise readers to familiarize themselves with the structure of SIRIHUB first which was laid out in our last report.</p><p>XSpring Digital received an approval from Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) on 29-July to sell Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. We understand Xspring has not concluded the sale yet and maintain the selling price at THB10 per token for the THB2.4bn sale. SIRIHUB-A was launched at 4.5% as per our expectation. SIRIHUB-B was launched at 8% (lower than the initial guidance of 8.25%). We attribute a lowered yield to demand for high-yielding investment in Thailand which reflects a lack of opportunities to invest outside Thailand and/or outside a traditionally low domestic yield environment. As per our opinion in the last report, we view SIRIHUB-B as a much better investment than SIRIHUB-A.</p><p>We view SIRIHUB akin to 4-year 2-tier bonds issued by Siripat Four Co. Ltd. (SP4). SIRIHUB-A can be viewed as a 4%-coupon senior bond while SIRIHUB-B can be viewed as an 8%-coupon subordinated bond. Overall, we assign an <strong>UNDERWEIGHT </strong>recommendation on both SIRIHUB A and B as we believe the valuation is not compelling, compared to Sansiri’s prevalent THB bond yields. We also see the following risk elements on the token:</p><ul>
<li>The token has no recourse to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansiri-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12201:1" rel="noopener">Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)</a> (Sansiri) but the ability to pay dividends on a timely manner rests on Sansiri’s liquidity.</li>
<li>The token relies on cashflow of Siri Campus. Even though we like the potential of Siri Campus in terms of location and the up-and-coming area close to the intersection of Sukhumvit Road and Onnut Road (Soi Sukhumvit 77) area, there is no income diversification in terms of other properties where the token can draw cashflow from.</li>
</ul><p>All in all, we see investors buying into Thailand’s first debt token as a fare to get on the first cog railway to summit, a slow ride which will take a while to the top. It is a sightseeing trip to be the first investors rather than an investment in itself.</p><p><strong> </strong></p><p><strong> </strong></p>

This research follows our first report on Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY) (SIRIHUB) published on 30-June ( SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token ). We advise readers to familiarize themselves with the structure of SIRIHUB first which was laid out in our last report.XSpring Digital received an approval from Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) on 29-July to sell Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. We understand Xspring has not concluded the sale yet and maintain the selling price at THB10 per token for the THB2.4bn sale. SIRIHUB-A was launched at 4.5% as per our expectation. SIRIHUB-B was launched at 8% (lower than the initial guidance of 8.25%). We attribute a lowered yield to demand for high-yielding investment in Thailand which reflects a lack of opportunities to invest outside Thailand and/or outside a traditionally low domestic yield environment. As per our opinion in the last report, we view SIRIHUB-B as a much better investment than SIRIHUB-A.We view SIRIHUB akin to 4-year 2-tier bonds issued by Siripat Four Co. Ltd. (SP4). SIRIHUB-A can be viewed as a 4%-coupon senior bond while SIRIHUB-B can be viewed as an 8%-coupon subordinated bond. Overall, we assign an UNDERWEIGHT recommendation on both SIRIHUB A and B as we believe the valuation is not compelling, compared to Sansiri’s prevalent THB bond yields. We also see the following risk elements on the token:
The token has no recourse to Sansiri Public (SIRI TB) (Sansiri) but the ability to pay dividends on a timely manner rests on Sansiri’s liquidity.
The token relies on cashflow of Siri Campus. Even though we like the potential of Siri Campus in terms of location and the up-and-coming area close to the intersection of Sukhumvit Road and Onnut Road (Soi Sukhumvit 77) area, there is no income diversification in terms of other properties where the token can draw cashflow from.
All in all, we see investors buying into Thailand’s first debt token as a fare to get on the first cog railway to summit, a slow ride which will take a while to the top. It is a sightseeing trip to be the first investors rather than an investment in itself.  

Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: The Cog Railway

<p>We are launching coverage of debt tokens with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siri-hub-investment-digital-tokens" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33515:1" rel="noopener">Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY)</a> (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As such, we expect the SEC’s decision by 5-August.</p><p>Our conversation with the SEC on 29-June leads us to believe XSpring Digital will need to revise its token prospectus in July. That said, we do not expect the token to be launched until August. We reached out to XSpring Digital to get our initial questions answered but so far the company has not replied to us. Although the sale is not finalized yet, we believe it is of investor interest to understand the proposed structure of SIRIHUB to react in time when the token is up for sale.</p><p>Our initial thought on the token is that SIRIHUB-A at up to 4.5% dividend yield is unattractive, compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansiri-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12201:1" rel="noopener">Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)</a> (Sansiri)’s 4-year THB bond yield which hovers in the mid 4% handle at the time of this report. That said, SIRIHUB-B at up to 8.25% dividend yield is a much better choice, in our view, although SIRIHUB-B takes structural subordination to SIRIHUB-A. SIRIHUB-B is a better carry at 8.25% dividend yield (than SIRIHUB-A’s). Sansiri is rated “BBB+” by TRIS Rating. Assuming a one-notch lower rating for SIRIHUB-B at “BBB” on a national scale, SIRIHUB-B’s international scale rating could be in the “B” or “B-“ category. At a “B” credit rating on an international scale, we believe investors can still find 4-year Asian USD bonds with a yield-to-worst of more than an 8.25% handle.</p><p>Overall, we believe the upside of both tokens is rather limited by (1) the value of Siri Campus which could be lower than THB2.4bn now on COVID-19; (2) a lack of income diversification; and (3) a lack of liquidity as Thailand’s first debt token. That said, we see both SIRIHUB-A and SIRIHUB-B as unattractive at the current offering despite the better carry for SIRIHUB-B.</p>

We are launching coverage of debt tokens with Siri Hub Investment Digital Tokens (SIRIHUB TB CURNCY) (SIRIHUB), Thailand’s first investment token. This report is a pre-launch report and we note that Thailand’s Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) is in the process of reviewing the launch at the time of this report. We understand XSpring Digital (formerly called SE Digital), SIRIHUB’s underwriter, has filed for SEC’s approval for the token launch since 5-May and the SEC has up to 90 days to assess the proposal. As such, we expect the SEC’s decision by 5-August.Our conversation with the SEC on 29-June leads us to believe XSpring Digital will need to revise its token prospectus in July. That said, we do not expect the token to be launched until August. We reached out to XSpring Digital to get our initial questions answered but so far the company has not replied to us. Although the sale is not finalized yet, we believe it is of investor interest to understand the proposed structure of SIRIHUB to react in time when the token is up for sale.Our initial thought on the token is that SIRIHUB-A at up to 4.5% dividend yield is unattractive, compared to Sansiri Public (SIRI TB) (Sansiri)’s 4-year THB bond yield which hovers in the mid 4% handle at the time of this report. That said, SIRIHUB-B at up to 8.25% dividend yield is a much better choice, in our view, although SIRIHUB-B takes structural subordination to SIRIHUB-A. SIRIHUB-B is a better carry at 8.25% dividend yield (than SIRIHUB-A’s). Sansiri is rated “BBB+” by TRIS Rating. Assuming a one-notch lower rating for SIRIHUB-B at “BBB” on a national scale, SIRIHUB-B’s international scale rating could be in the “B” or “B-“ category. At a “B” credit rating on an international scale, we believe investors can still find 4-year Asian USD bonds with a yield-to-worst of more than an 8.25% handle.Overall, we believe the upside of both tokens is rather limited by (1) the value of Siri Campus which could be lower than THB2.4bn now on COVID-19; (2) a lack of income diversification; and (3) a lack of liquidity as Thailand’s first debt token. That said, we see both SIRIHUB-A and SIRIHUB-B as unattractive at the current offering despite the better carry for SIRIHUB-B.

SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.</li><li>However, it subsequently improved slightly after the market shifted its focus to small to medium cap stocks, alongside expectations for an interest rate cut by the MPC due to the continued contraction of Thai inflation.</li><li>Despite the index experiencing a further decline, a doji signal emerged at the support area, mitigating the negative signal from the preceding black candlestick.</li></ul>

The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.However, it subsequently improved slightly after the market shifted its focus to small to medium cap stocks, alongside expectations for an interest rate cut by the MPC due to the continued contraction of Thai inflation.Despite the index experiencing a further decline, a doji signal emerged at the support area, mitigating the negative signal from the preceding black candlestick.

Thailand

MBK Public Company Limited operates property business.  The Company owns Mah Boon Krong Center building complex located in downtown Bangkok.  The complex consists of shopping malls, an office building and the Patumwan Princess Hotel. Through its subsidiaries, the Company mills and distributes rice, other grain products and operates power generation and distribution business.

Amata Corporation Public Company Limited develops industrial estates primarily served for manufacturing plants and factories. The Company acquires land and develops essential infrastructure and facilities ready for industrialized operations. Ameta also has overseas investments in Vietnam.

Supalai Public Company Limited is a property development company which has operations in Bangkok metropolis as well as other leading provincial markets. The Company develops all types of residential products, including detached houses, townhouses and condominiums.

AP Thailand PCL is a property development company. The Company develops residential property projects in Bangkok areas as well as manufactures and distributes precast concrete products.

Frasers Property (Thailand) Public Company Limited operates as a real estate developer. The Company acquires, develops, owns, and manages hotels, residential, and commercial properties. Frasers Property serves customers in Thailand.

Saha Pathana Inter-Holding PCL is a holding company for the Saha Group of companies.  The Company provides management and consulting services to its affiliated companies which operate various consumer product businesses such as apparel, cosmetics, food and daily products.  The Company also develops industrial park projects.

Quality Houses Public Company Limited is a property development company. The Company specializes in single-house, apartment, and condominium development projects.

Pruksa Holding Public Company Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in property developing and recurring income businesses. Pruksa Holding serves customers in Thailand.

Principal Capital PCL is a property development company. The Company's primary objective is to develop property projects with a focus on the Central Business District (CBD) and prime area.

SC Asset Corporation Public Company Limited develops real estate properties for sale and rental.  The Company owns and manages Shinawatra Tower III office building. Additionally, SC Asset and its subsidiaries own Shinawatra Tower I and Shinawatra Tower II office buildings, develop single house, condominium and office building projects, and provide management consultant services.

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Ltd. is a property development and sales company. The Compnay'ss operations include the entire property development process, comprising land acquisition and investment, construction planning, design and execution, sales and marketing, after-sales service as well as property management.

HEIWA REAL ESTATE CO., LTD. develops, constructs, sells, and leases real estate properties.  The Company also provides brokerage services on residential and commercial buildings as well as maintenance services.  Heiwa Real Estate provides consulting services on real estate and develops and operates resort places and facilities.

Da-Li Development Co., Ltd. is primarily involved in outsourced construction, leasing and distribution businesses. The Company develops residential buildings, including houses, suites and parking spaces.

Fujian Start Group Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets personal computers, computer peripheral equipment, and networking products.  The Company also develops computer software.

China Dalian International Cooperation (Group) Holdings, Ltd. provides import and export services, undertakes international and domestic construction contracts, develops real estate properties, and operates deep sea fishing.  The Company also offers water transportation and international labor consulting services.

Shanghai AJ Group Co Ltd is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company operates in import and export trading, trust and investment businesses, chemicals manufacturing, real estate development, building construction, as well as travel and food services.

Redco Group operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops and markets residential areas, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. Redco Group also provides property management and hotel operating services.

CCCG Real Estate Corporation Limited provides real estate services. The Company provides property asset management and related real estate services.

CCCG Real Estate Corporation Limited (000736 CH)

Advancetek Enterprise Co., Ltd. develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also manufactures and markets disposable diapers as well as adult incontinence products.

TOSEI CORPORATION develops and sells residential properties and leases office facilities in central Tokyo.  The Company also invests in real estate and manages investment trust funds such as the Argo Fund.

Sansiri Public Company Limited develops real estate projects for sales and rentals.  Its projects include resort condominiums, residential and office buildings.  The Company also provides property and project management services.

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Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)

SANSIRI Plc. - Maintaining Growth Momentum in 2H23E

We upgrade our rating to Buy (from Outperform), as the long- term growth in our valuation matrix has been lifted to “strong,” more bullish than the...

Krungthai XSpring

Earnings Review - Sansiri Plc. (SIRI) - AUGUST 15, 2023

Revenue increased by 26% YoY and 20% QoQ to Bt9.2bn, driven by revenue from property project sales (+21% YoY and 19% QoQ to Bt8.0bn, accounting for...

Krungthai XSpring

Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: The Cog Railway

Our final thought on SIRIHUB is that the token valuation is unattractive. Hence, the exposure is merely a claim to be on the first debt token in...

Bondcritic

SPV77 / Siri Hub Investment Digital Token: Thailand’s First Debt Token

Thailand's first debt token is under SEC review. See how the token is structured, how the story came together, and whether "SIRIHUB" is investable.

Bondcritic

Technical Analysis - MARCH 6, 2024

The SET fell in line with Asian bourses as a selling force continued to target large cap shares, causing the index to hit a 39-month low.

Krungthai XSpring

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