Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.</li>
<li>The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.</li>
<li>We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.</li>
</ul>


The Sanrio (8136 JP) placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.
The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.
We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.


Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> announced a deal last week which I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sanrio-8136-jp-large-secondary-offering-don-t-say-hello-kitty-too-soon" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:167933" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering - Don't Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon</a>.  Next day it fell sharply. </li>
<li>There was shorting involved, and since then the stock has rallied 18% to clear the undisturbed price which itself was an all-time high, up 5% in the previous two days.</li>
<li>There is some LO buying, some HF covering, but a LOT of day-traders. In five days the stock has traded 903% of its Maximum Real World Float. That's a lot.</li>
</ul>



Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a deal last week which I discussed in Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering - Don't Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon.  Next day it fell sharply. 
There was shorting involved, and since then the stock has rallied 18% to clear the undisturbed price which itself was an all-time high, up 5% in the previous two days.
There is some LO buying, some HF covering, but a LOT of day-traders. In five days the stock has traded 903% of its Maximum Real World Float. That's a lot.


<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> announced a large secondary offering where banks would sell down shares and the Tsuji family would sell a few shares at the margin. </li>
<li>The stock has been on a rocket for two years. It's expensive. Growth slows next year. Will this cause momentum to turn? Maybe. The offering is 38% of Max RWF.</li>
<li>I think one could give this a pass, and even sell it if it opens down small. </li>
</ul>


Today, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a large secondary offering where banks would sell down shares and the Tsuji family would sell a few shares at the margin. 
The stock has been on a rocket for two years. It's expensive. Growth slows next year. Will this cause momentum to turn? Maybe. The offering is 38% of Max RWF.
I think one could give this a pass, and even sell it if it opens down small. 


Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering - Don't Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.</li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.</li>
</ul>


Overnight, Sanrio (8136 JP) announced a placement of 25.87m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 3.88m shares.
There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the shares offered is a large percentage of real float of the stock.
However, Sanrio (8136 JP) is the highest ranked non-constituent stock in a global index universe and a drop in the stock price could be used to accumulate positions.


Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics

Japan

Sanrio Company, Ltd. manufactures and sells character goods including gift merchandise, greeting cards, and stationery products.  The Company also produces books, magazines, and movies, and though its subsidiary, operates restaurants and amusement parks.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sanrio (8136 JP)

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

The Sanrio placement could be priced today. The stock has moved as expected so far - sharp drop, rally, profit taking. The stock remains within...

Brian Freitas

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Sanrio (8136 JP) - Kitty Behaving Badly

Sanrio (8136) launched a secondary offering last week at an ATH. The stock fell hard, then rallied for 5 days to a new ATH. In 5 days, the stock...

Travis Lundy

Sanrio (8136 JP) Large Secondary Offering - Don't Say Hello Kitty! Too Soon

After a magnificent run-up in the stock, the expected secondary offering by banks unwinding cross-holdings in Sanrio (8136) has arrived. It's big...

Travis Lundy

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Potential Global Index Migration Leads to Interesting Dynamics

The secondary offering in Sanrio is US$865m and represents 10x ADV and 25% of real float. There are some interesting dynamics that will play out...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)