'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 6th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/143/original/image_48903433121617743112480.png?1617743113" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199143"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi (7649 JP)</a> should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-a-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20755:1" rel="noopener">San-A (2659 JP)</a> continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/144/original/image_43671087431617743435802.png?1617743436" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199144"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/145/original/image_77617965041617743669042.png?1617743669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199145"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/146/original/image_76585369451617743732286.png?1617743732" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199146"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>  revises up but to below TTM, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/147/original/image_68585463461617743969672.png?1617743970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199147"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/149/original/image_25082609781617744023412.png?1617744024" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199149"></figure>

• RESULTS - 6th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, San-A (2659 JP) continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Lawson (2651 JP)  revises up but to below TTM, while Takashimaya (8233 JP) expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06  -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Japan starts 2021 is a subdued mood as the Yen trending towards ¥100 against the US dollar, daily COVID case counts reach new highs. Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures will likely enter a month-long State of Emergency from Saturday, which will impose a nighttime 'curfew' and recommend a 60% WFH ratio. We kick off 2021 Results and Revisions Updates with Tuesday's best and worst pairing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12548:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (2897 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/113/original/2021-01-06_06-25-57.png?1609881978" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181113"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/181/114/original/2021-01-06_06-25-19.png?1609881991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="181114"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST • Japan starts 2021 is a subdued mood as the Yen trending towards ¥100 against the US dollar, daily COVID case counts reach new highs. Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures will likely enter a month-long State of Emergency from Saturday, which will impose a nighttime 'curfew' and recommend a 60% WFH ratio. We kick off 2021 Results and Revisions Updates with Tuesday's best and worst pairing of Nissin Foods (2897 JP) and Daiseki (9793 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/05 - Daiseki, San-A, Nissin Foods

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera (3048 JP)</a> and Japan's largest mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/781/original/2020-10-07_06-18-08.png?1602019101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163781"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/782/original/2020-10-07_06-18-56.png?1602019156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163782"></figure><div class="content-caption"><span>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</span></div><div><hr></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: +0.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: </strong>25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.3 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest mall operator AEON Mall (8905 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.3 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/786/original/2020-07-08_06-33-57.png?1594157660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144786"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/788/original/2020-07-08_06-35-53.png?1594157763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144788"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/790/original/2020-07-08_06-48-56.png?1594158549" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144790"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>DESTINATION BLUES</strong> - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>14 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-0.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.9</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.
DAILY STATS
14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
 8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.9


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/061/original/File%202020-04-07%2019%2005%2039.jpeg?1586290609" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127061"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>THE STATE IN EMERGENCY</strong> - Prime Minister Abe addressed the nation last night in what some are calling his best speech in that role. Channelling Franklin D. Roosevelt, he dispelled fears of a nationwide stay-at-home lockdown by announcing measures to limit public social interaction, especially indoors, in seven prefectures including Tokyo for the next four weeks as well as a ¥108 trillion economic support package.</p><p><strong>REAL WATER</strong> - The 'real water' new spending amounts to only about ¥20 trillion or 4% of GDP. Nevertheless, that amount is 60% higher than the support offered during the 2008 financial crisis, and much of the stimulus will be in the form of cash subsidies directly to households and SMEs. While the direct economic damage is limited to the leisure and tourism industries, the loss of export and overseas sales will result in a probable 4% contraction in 2020 GDP. Accordingly, should these measures result in a flattening of the COVID-19 'curve' in Japan this month, the Japanese economy will emerge relatively unscathed from the crisis amongst large developed nations.</p><p><strong>LEGACY</strong> - A benign outcome from the COVID-19 crisis would result in Abe's legacy being more than just 'Abenomics' or 'Tokyo 2020'. The chronicles would judge this moment to be indeed his 'finest hour'. We are selectively bullish on domestically-orientated non-consumer facing Japanese equities.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/081/original/2020-04-08_07-46-04.png?1586299591" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127081"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the sixteen results announcements and ten revisions or initial forecasts. The positive/negative balance for results was 9:7, for revisions and forecasts the split was 3:0:6 with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mani-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6534:1" rel="noopener">Mani (7730 JP)</a></strong>being the most 'actionable'.     </p>

Source • NHKTHE STATE IN EMERGENCY - Prime Minister Abe addressed the nation last night in what some are calling his best speech in that role. Channelling Franklin D. Roosevelt, he dispelled fears of a nationwide stay-at-home lockdown by announcing measures to limit public social interaction, especially indoors, in seven prefectures including Tokyo for the next four weeks as well as a ¥108 trillion economic support package.REAL WATER - The 'real water' new spending amounts to only about ¥20 trillion or 4% of GDP. Nevertheless, that amount is 60% higher than the support offered during the 2008 financial crisis, and much of the stimulus will be in the form of cash subsidies directly to households and SMEs. While the direct economic damage is limited to the leisure and tourism industries, the loss of export and overseas sales will result in a probable 4% contraction in 2020 GDP. Accordingly, should these measures result in a flattening of the COVID-19 'curve' in Japan this month, the Japanese economy will emerge relatively unscathed from the crisis amongst large developed nations.LEGACY - A benign outcome from the COVID-19 crisis would result in Abe's legacy being more than just 'Abenomics' or 'Tokyo 2020'. The chronicles would judge this moment to be indeed his 'finest hour'. We are selectively bullish on domestically-orientated non-consumer facing Japanese equities.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the sixteen results announcements and ten revisions or initial forecasts. The positive/negative balance for results was 9:7, for revisions and forecasts the split was 3:0:6 with Mani (7730 JP)being the most 'actionable'.     

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 7th April - His Finest Hour

Japan

SAN-A CO., LTD. operates supermarkets, restaurants, and hotels in the Okinawa area.  The Company sells groceries, clothing, and household items.  San-A also operates restaurants, including Japanese and Italian restaurants, coffee shops, and food courts.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

San A Co Ltd (2659 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/05 - Daiseki, San-A, Nissin Foods

Japan starts 2021 is a subdued mood as the Yen trending towards ¥100 against the US dollar, daily COVID case counts reach new highs.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 7th April - His Finest Hour

THE STATE IN EMERGENCY - Prime Minister Abe addressed the nation last night in what some are calling his best speech in that role. Channelling...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​01/05 - Daiseki, San-A, Nissin Foods

Japan starts 2021 is a subdued mood as the Yen trending towards ¥100 against the US dollar, daily COVID case counts reach new highs.

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 7th April - His Finest Hour

THE STATE IN EMERGENCY - Prime Minister Abe addressed the nation last night in what some are calling his best speech in that role. Channelling...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 01/05 - Daiseki, San-A, Nissin Foods

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers