Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023.
Of the 33 pair trades, 2/3 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past year and 1/3 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 33 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.</li>
<li>In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.</li>
<li>We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage.
In general, more holdcos/quasi-holdcos have been outperforming the opcos in the past year, as compared to the previous years as more investors seek value-oriented, deep NAV discount stocks.
We highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

What would be a real-world passive money size tracking KOSPI 200?My latest estimation is ₩80 trillion, and here is a breakdown of my estimation.ETFsWe currently have 17 local ETFs mirroring KOSPI 200, including KODEX 200 (₩5.5T) and TIGER 200 (₩2.3T). Their combined market value amounts to ₩16.5T.







Local ETFs directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Ticker
Market cap as of today (June 1, 2021)


YURIE TREX 200 ETF
108590
₩13.0B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 Total Return ETF
294400
₩493.3B


Kyobo AXA Power K200 ETF
152870
₩28.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 Total Return ETF
278530
₩1,470.5B


Mirae Asset TIGER Leverage ETF
123320
₩32.1B


KIM KINDEX Leverage ETF
152500
₩11.1B


HANWHA Arirang 200 ETF
152100
₩853.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 ETF
069500
₩5,446.8B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 ETF
069660
₩542.8B


Mirae Asset TIGER200 ETF
102110
₩2,283.6B


KIM KINDEX 200 ETF
105190
₩751.7B


Samsung KODEX Leverage Derivatives ETF
122630
₩1,722.2B


KB KBSTAR 200 Securities ETF
148020
₩1,168.8B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200 ETF
293180
₩655.5B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200TR ETF
332930
₩222.4B


KIM KINDEX 200TotalReturn ETF
332500
₩340.5B


Shinhan SMART 200 Total Return ETF
295040
₩449.9B


- Total
-
₩16,486.4B

Source: KRX

Index funds39 local index funds are currently tracking KOSPI 200, including the Kyobo AXA Power Index with an AUM of ₩1.3T. Their combined AUM totals ₩3.7T.






Local Index funds directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Assets under management as of today (June 1, 2021)


Kiwoom New Frontier Index Plus αF- 1 [Equity-Derivative] A1
₩17.5B


Kiwoom e-Alpha Index 1 [Equity]
₩11.0B


Kiwoom Korea Index 1 [Equity] C-e
₩28.1B


Kiwoom Korea Happy Pension Index 1 [Equity]
₩16.6B


Korea Investment Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩28.4B


BNKK200 Index (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩25.4B


KB Star Power Index Korea [Equity-Derivative] C-E
₩18.3B


Hungkuk Index Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-f
₩17.9B


Daishin Index Value [Equity] ClassC-F
₩130.5B


Mirae Asset Market Plus [Equity] Type F
₩11.8B


Consus Moebius 1 200 Index (Equity-Derivative) Class C
₩11.0B


IBKKOSPI200 Index 1 [Equity] Type A
₩39.8B


Truston Index Alpha s [Equity-Derivative] C
₩14.5B


Hyundai KOSPI 200 Index Type C-f
₩10.2B


DGB Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] A
₩27.6B


Woori KOSPI200 Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassC-e
₩49.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 2 [Equity] ClassA1
₩22.5B


East Spring Korea Index [Equity] Class C-F
₩207.0B


Mirae KOSPI 200 Index 1 [Equity] Type C-e
₩164.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 [Equity] Class A 1
₩332.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 3 [Equity] ClassA
₩12.6B


Daishin KOSPI200 Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassC1
₩64.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩1,277.0B


DB Index Haeohreum Alpha [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩15.5B


Hana UBS Umbrella New Index K- 1 [Equity-Derivative] ClassC
₩12.9B


Samsung Retirement Pension Index 1 [Equity] C
₩138.7B


Korea Investment &amp; Cruise F2.8 Index [Equity] (A)
₩14.1B


KB Index Annuity [Equity] C
₩20.6B


Samsung Index Alpha 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩18.6B


Samsung Pension Korea Index [Equity-Derivative]
₩34.6B


Samsung Classic Index Pensions 1 [Equity] _C
₩180.6B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity] C-E class
₩88.8B


Samsung Premium Index A [Equity-Derivative]
₩74.2B


Hanwha Smart ++ Index [Equity] C / C2β
₩240.4B


Feynman Index Premium 2 [Equity-Derivative]
₩18.8B


Samsung Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (C 1)
₩49.7B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity-Derivative] C
₩54.1B


NH-Amundi Premier Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩26.7B


Hyundai Investment Index 1 Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-I
₩135.5B


- Total
₩3,660.7B

Source: KG Zeroin

National Pension Service (NPS)Now, we need to add NPS. In 2019, the internal (direct) management accounted for 54.15% of the domestic equity, whereas the external (consignment) management was responsible for 45.85%. Only the internal management operates passive funds, which accounted for 33.75% of the total domestic equity.The total domestic equity at March-end of this year was ₩178.7T. Assuming the same 33.75% weight for the passive in the domestic equity churns out ₩60.3T for the local passive funds within the NPS. An assumed 70% of this ₩60.3T would be ₩42.2T, supposedly tracking KOSPI 200. 70% should be a conservative assumption as their BM index for domestic equity is KOSPI.









NPS asset allocation
FY2019, amount
FY2019, weight
FY2021 March, amount
Directly mirroring KOSPI 200 at an assumed 70% of the total passive funds


Internal (direct) management
₩71,612.1B





- Active
₩26,976.9B
20.40%




- Passive
₩44,635.2B
33.75%
₩60,301.4B
₩42,211.0B


External (consignment) management
₩60,641.9B





- Active
₩60,641.9B
45.85%




- Passive
₩0.0B
0.00%




Total domestic Equity
₩132,254.0B

₩178,673.0B


Source: NPS

Variable insurance index fundsLastly, we have variable insurance index funds. A vast majority of the local variable insurance index funds are tracking KOSPI 200. I don't have the latest figure, but the FY2019 year-end data (compiled by YONHAP INFOMAX) shows that the combined AUM of these funds amounted to about ₩17~18T.Given the relatively flat yearly growth among the local insurance companies, I don't expect to see a substantial change in the combined AUM last year. So, ₩18T would be a safe estimate.Adding all four spits out ₩80.4T, supposedly total local passive money mirroring KOSPI 200 at this point.
₩80T estimation breakdown

ETFs
₩16.5T


Index funds
₩3.7T


National Pension Service - Passive
₩42.2T


Variable Insurance Index funds
₩18.0T


 - Total
₩80.4T

Source: KG Zeroin, KRX, NPS, &amp; YONHAP INFOMAX


Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7699:1" rel="noopener">HDC Holdings (012630 KS)</a> will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.The inclusions and exclusions are:<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 222pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 273pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Code</td>
<td>Name</td>
<td>Code</td>
<td>Name</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>302440.KS</td>
<td>SK Bioscience Co Ltd</td>
<td>005180.KS</td>
<td>Binggrae Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>006040.KS</td>
<td>Dongwon Industries Co Ltd</td>
<td>005610.KS</td>
<td>SPC Samlip Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298050.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp</td>
<td>006390.KS</td>
<td>Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298020.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung TNC Corp</td>
<td>008350.KS</td>
<td>Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>361610.KS</td>
<td>SK IE Technology Co Ltd</td>
<td>009410.KS</td>
<td>Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>001440.KS</td>
<td>Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd</td>
<td>018250.KS</td>
<td>Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>145990.KS</td>
<td>Samyang Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>012630.KS</td>
<td>HDC Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.With short selling limited to the constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.

The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If SK IE Technology (361610 KS) meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then HDC Holdings (012630 KS) will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.The inclusions and exclusions are:








Inclusions
Exclusions


Code
Name
Code
Name


302440.KS
SK Bioscience Co Ltd
005180.KS
Binggrae Co Ltd


006040.KS
Dongwon Industries Co Ltd
005610.KS
SPC Samlip Co Ltd


298050.KS
Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp
006390.KS
Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd


298020.KS
Hyosung TNC Corp
008350.KS
Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd


361610.KS
SK IE Technology Co Ltd
009410.KS
Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd


001440.KS
Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd
018250.KS
Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd




145990.KS
Samyang Corp




012630.KS
HDC Holdings Co Ltd


There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.With short selling limited to the constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.

KOSPI 200 index review period, November 1 to April 30, is now completed. <table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 Index"}'>KOSPI 200 Index</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KRX:KOSPI200"}'>KRX: KOSPI200</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Rebalancing"}'>Rebalancing</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Biannually"}'>Biannually</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Effective date"}'>Effective date</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"June 11, 2021 - next trading day of 2nd Thursday of June &amp; December"}'>June 11, 2021 - next trading day of 2nd Thursday of June &amp; December</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Review period"}'>Review period</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"November 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021"}'>November 1, 2020 - April 30, 2021</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Est. total mirroring funds"}'>Est. total mirroring funds</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}'>60,000.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Total float-adj market cap (₩B)"}'>Total float-adj market cap (₩B)</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1249756.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}'>1,249,756.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Average"}'>- Average</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6217.7}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}'>6,217.70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Highest"}'>- Highest</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":384364.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}'>384,364.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Lowest"}'>- Lowest</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":111}'>111</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Median"}'>- Median</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1458.5}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}'>1,458.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Top 10 largest"}'>- Top 10 largest</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5732}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>57.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Current"}'>Current</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":422.36}'>422.36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"52W high (January 25, 2021)"}'>52W high (January 25, 2021)</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":437.3}'>437.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 300.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"52W low (May 4, 2020)"}'>52W low (May 4, 2020)</td>
<td style="width: 401.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":250.6}'>250.6</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>Screening rules are as follows:<ol>
<li>Select candidates for each sector in order by the cumulative average daily market cap (the cumulative cut-off at the 15th percentile). Include the first company that crosses the 15th percentile mark.</li>
<li>Exclude those whose cumulative average daily trading value is below the 15th percentile. Also, exclude those new entrants whose average daily market cap ranking is above 110%.</li>
<li>If not reach a full 200 members in the first and second screenings, then re-select the current constituents whose average daily market cap ranking is within 110%.</li>
<li>Select additional names among the unselected current constituents by the average daily market cap regardless of classification.</li>
</ol>

KOSPI 200 index review period, November 1 to April 30, is now completed. 





KOSPI 200 Index

Ticker
KRX: KOSPI200


Rebalancing
Biannually


Effective date
June 11, 2021 - next trading day of 2nd Thursday of June &amp; December


Review period
November 1, 2020 - April 30, 2021


Est. total mirroring funds
60,000.00


Total float-adj market cap (₩B)
1,249,756.40


- Average
6,217.70


- Highest
384,364.40


- Lowest
111


- Median
1,458.50


- Top 10 largest
57.32%


Current
422.36


52W high (January 25, 2021)
437.3


52W low (May 4, 2020)
250.6

Source: KRX

Screening rules are as follows:
Select candidates for each sector in order by the cumulative average daily market cap (the cumulative cut-off at the 15th percentile). Include the first company that crosses the 15th percentile mark.
Exclude those whose cumulative average daily trading value is below the 15th percentile. Also, exclude those new entrants whose average daily market cap ranking is above 110%.
If not reach a full 200 members in the first and second screenings, then re-select the current constituents whose average daily market cap ranking is within 110%.
Select additional names among the unselected current constituents by the average daily market cap regardless of classification.


KOSPI 200 Review Period Completed: Early Phase Long Short Trade

South Korea

Samyang Corporation operates as a diversify company. The Company focuses on chemicals including engineering plastics with products such as industrial fibers, plastic bottle, ion exchange resins and also foodstuffs sector, including sugar, flour, baking mixes, vegetable oils, margarine, and shortening. Samyang Corporation market its products throughout South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samyang Corp (145990 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities in 1Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 1Q 2023. We highlight 33 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Spreads Opportunities Amid Market Carnage

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergence of the major Korean holdcos and opcos amid market carnage. We highlight 26 pair trades...

Douglas Kim

Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

This post provides a detailed breakdown of how I arrive at an estimated ₩80 trillion for the passive money tracking KOSPI 200.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Spot On!

There are 5 adds and 7 deletes for the KOSPI200 (as we forecast). There could be another add/delete if SK IE Tech gets index Fast Entry. Inclusions...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 Review Period Completed: Early Phase Long Short Trade

Last Friday was the last day of the KOSPI 200 index review period. This post screens higher probable ones for addition and deletion and suggests an...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)