Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

Chosun Ilbo, Korea's most influential newspaper with the largest circulation, wrote a report this morning about Samsung Biologics cutting a contract manufacturing deal with Moderna for COVID-19 vaccines.It is right in the front headline of Chosun Ilbo this morning. Chosun isn't usually speculative on headline news of this magnitude.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/206/095/original/Screen+Shot+2021-05-13+at+8.16.03+PM.png?1620953230" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="206095"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">(Courtesy Chosun Ilbo)</div>Samsung Biologics doesn't deny the news report in a regulatory filing. It means the deal itself seems true. The filing rule requires Biologics to provide an update within a month. But from my experience, we will likely hear an acknowledgment and possibly detailed progress much earlier.<a href="https://kind.krx.co.kr/common/disclsviewer.do?method=search&amp;acptno=20210514000064&amp;docno=&amp;viewerhost=&amp;viewerport=" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to Samsung Biologics' regulatory filing about this news report.</a>

Chosun Ilbo, Korea's most influential newspaper with the largest circulation, wrote a report this morning about Samsung Biologics cutting a contract manufacturing deal with Moderna for COVID-19 vaccines.It is right in the front headline of Chosun Ilbo this morning. Chosun isn't usually speculative on headline news of this magnitude.(Courtesy Chosun Ilbo)Samsung Biologics doesn't deny the news report in a regulatory filing. It means the deal itself seems true. The filing rule requires Biologics to provide an update within a month. But from my experience, we will likely hear an acknowledgment and possibly detailed progress much earlier.Here is the link to Samsung Biologics' regulatory filing about this news report.

Samsung Biologics Contract Manufacturing Deal with Moderna for COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Takeaways

Event-Driven

Hankyung, one of Korea's two most well-established economic news outlets, put out an exclusive report very early morning before the market opened that Samsung Biologics would begin to produce Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines starting August.<a href="https://n.news.naver.com/article/015/0004544831" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the news report by Hankyung.</a>Then, a bit later, another prestigious newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, published a similar story saying that it had quoted an industry expert familiar with the inside of Samsung Biologics.<a href="https://biz.chosun.com/it-science/bio-science/2021/05/12/KDFVFJQLYJCNLAPQL6RUAX6YBQ/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the news report by Chosun Ilbo.</a>But Samsung Biologics quickly denied the news report in an official filing before the market opened. It stated in a filing that the news report about Samsung Biologics planning to produce Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines is not true.<a href="https://engkind.krx.co.kr/common/disclsviewer.do?method=search&amp;acptNo=20210512000039&amp;docno=&amp;formProcsCd=070&amp;language=english" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the filing by Samsung Biologics.</a><hr><h2>Clarifications about statements in a filing about a market rumor</h2>When we have this kind of market rumor, a company typically gives one of two statement types in a filing.<ol>
<li>
No comment to make at this time: It is generally considered an acknowledgment. If this statement is given in a filing, a company will have to update the situation within one month in another filing.
</li>
<li>
Not true at this time: It is generally considered a denial. If this statement is given in a filing, a company can not reverse it within three months. If a company gives a modified filing within three months, it will face a stiff penalty.</li>
</ol><hr>Samsung Biologics' filing was the second type. So, it was a clear denial.So, it has two possibilities:<ol>
<li>The Pfizer deal must not have materialized yet, and it will take at least three months.</li>
<li>Or, it is not true at all.</li>
</ol>Nonetheless, Samsung Biologics' share price still ended up with a 4.77% gain.Why is that? It is mainly because the local market still believes that there is some substantial CMO deal talking going on with clients other than Pfizer.It is rare for a well-established newspaper like Hankyung, the newspaper initially reported the Pfizer deal news, to put out an exclusive report like this one without any substance. Hankyung must have heard something. Just, it might have gotten the client name wrong. That is what the local street seems to believe.In fact, some names are being tossed around as potential CMO deal clients, including Moderna.<a href="http://www.financialreview.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=20317" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the news link of a local news outlet speculating Moderna being Samsung Biologics' new CMO client. </a>

Hankyung, one of Korea's two most well-established economic news outlets, put out an exclusive report very early morning before the market opened that Samsung Biologics would begin to produce Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines starting August.Here is the link to the news report by Hankyung.Then, a bit later, another prestigious newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, published a similar story saying that it had quoted an industry expert familiar with the inside of Samsung Biologics.Here is the link to the news report by Chosun Ilbo.But Samsung Biologics quickly denied the news report in an official filing before the market opened. It stated in a filing that the news report about Samsung Biologics planning to produce Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines is not true.Here is the link to the filing by Samsung Biologics.Clarifications about statements in a filing about a market rumorWhen we have this kind of market rumor, a company typically gives one of two statement types in a filing.

No comment to make at this time: It is generally considered an acknowledgment. If this statement is given in a filing, a company will have to update the situation within one month in another filing.


Not true at this time: It is generally considered a denial. If this statement is given in a filing, a company can not reverse it within three months. If a company gives a modified filing within three months, it will face a stiff penalty.
Samsung Biologics' filing was the second type. So, it was a clear denial.So, it has two possibilities:
The Pfizer deal must not have materialized yet, and it will take at least three months.
Or, it is not true at all.
Nonetheless, Samsung Biologics' share price still ended up with a 4.77% gain.Why is that? It is mainly because the local market still believes that there is some substantial CMO deal talking going on with clients other than Pfizer.It is rare for a well-established newspaper like Hankyung, the newspaper initially reported the Pfizer deal news, to put out an exclusive report like this one without any substance. Hankyung must have heard something. Just, it might have gotten the client name wrong. That is what the local street seems to believe.In fact, some names are being tossed around as potential CMO deal clients, including Moderna.Here is the news link of a local news outlet speculating Moderna being Samsung Biologics' new CMO client. 

Samsung Biologics CMO Deal Noise & Samsung C&T Synthetic Subsidiary Stub Trade

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While March semiconductor revenues reached record levels, a price downturn appears to have begun.  This downturn seems likely to have a short duration before the market resumes its good growth for the rest of the year.

While March semiconductor revenues reached record levels, a price downturn appears to have begun.  This downturn seems likely to have a short duration before the market resumes its good growth for the rest of the year.

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

This insight provides the output, and an overview of, our proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approached to finding the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for 12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gazprom-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23749:1" rel="noopener">Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sberbank-of-russia-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24142:1" rel="noopener">Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI)</a>.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td>CNOOC LTD</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td>GAZPROM</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td>CHINA RESOURCES LAND LTD</td>
<td>Real Estate</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">45</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td>PTT NON-VOTING DR PCL</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td>MEDIATEK INC</td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td>PAO NOVATEK GDR</td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td>GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LTD</td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td>SBERBANK ROSSII</td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>Russian Federation</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td>SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD</td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td>FIRSTRAND LTD</td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>South Africa</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">30</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of, our proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approached to finding the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for 12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include Gazprom PJSC (GAZP RX), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and Sberbank Of Russia Pjsc (SBER LI).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1
CNOOC LTD
Energy
China
25


2
GAZPROM
Energy
Russian Federation
89


3
CHINA RESOURCES LAND LTD
Real Estate
China
45


4
PTT NON-VOTING DR PCL
Energy
Thailand
39


5
MEDIATEK INC
Information Technology
Taiwan
81


6
PAO NOVATEK GDR
Energy
Russian Federation
48


7
GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LTD
Consumer Discretionary
China
2


8
SBERBANK ROSSII
Financials
Russian Federation
59


9
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS LTD
Information Technology
Korea (South)
41


10
FIRSTRAND LTD
Financials
South Africa
30

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

The talk of M&amp;A interest by Samsung Electronics has been making the rounds again and the question is how does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> grow with the current leader locked up in jail? <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> seems to be central to where the Group goes.

The talk of M&amp;A interest by Samsung Electronics has been making the rounds again and the question is how does Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) grow with the current leader locked up in jail? Samsung SDI (006400 KS) seems to be central to where the Group goes.

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Samsung Biologics Contract Manufacturing Deal with Moderna for COVID-19 Vaccines: Key Takeaways

This post summarizes key takeaways on this morning's news report about Samsung Biologics cutting a manufacturing deal with Moderna for COVID-19...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Biologics CMO Deal Noise & Samsung C&T Synthetic Subsidiary Stub Trade

This post investigates what has happened to Samsung Biologics with the CMO deal rumor yesterday and discusses Samsung C&T synthetic subsidiary stub...

Sanghyun Park

March Semiconductor Sales Up Yet Again

The SIA reported very positive semiconductor revenues for the first quarter, but leading indicators show that a correction has begun. This Insight...

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Screening for GEMs: May 2021

This insight provides an overview of our proprietary GEM screening model which is based on a multifactor screening model, a Deep Neural Network...

Wium Malan, CFA

SDI's Future Tied to JY Lee?

Samsung SDI and the importance of the battery business and its ESS exposure in the US gives great excuse for JY Lee to leave Korea

Ken S. Kim

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