Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.</li>
<li>Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.</li>
<li>As seen from the chart depicting SFA's loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today's sale event.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.
Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.
As seen from the chart depicting SFA's loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today's sale event.


Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung's Next Stake Sale

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yageo has been relatively range-bound since early 2023E, missing completely the 'AI Rally' that caused many other Taiwan names to rise. Hence one can buy it without chasing hype.</li>
<li>We spoke with management. The company has historically enjoyed durable margins and we believe could enjoy a cycle turn-around as its products are linked to high-tech power needs.</li>
<li>While not directly linked to AI demand, its products have strong long-term demand dynamics and are necessary for AI servers, high-end computing, autos, defense, and communications. Structural Long, NT$690 target.</li>
</ul>


Yageo has been relatively range-bound since early 2023E, missing completely the 'AI Rally' that caused many other Taiwan names to rise. Hence one can buy it without chasing hype.
We spoke with management. The company has historically enjoyed durable margins and we believe could enjoy a cycle turn-around as its products are linked to high-tech power needs.
While not directly linked to AI demand, its products have strong long-term demand dynamics and are necessary for AI servers, high-end computing, autos, defense, and communications. Structural Long, NT$690 target.


Yageo: Left Behind By the 'AI Rally', But Robust Business Still Tied to Strong Power/EV Drivers

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron results this week; will give a key readthrough for Nanya Tech. The latest memory chip pricing data implies it was another tough quarter.</li>
<li>Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning over naysayers.</li>
<li>AI Leaders Basket: TSMC and ASML have substantially lagged Nvidia and could serve as AI-exposure alternatives to chasing Nvidia's rally.</li>
</ul>


Micron results this week; will give a key readthrough for Nanya Tech. The latest memory chip pricing data implies it was another tough quarter.
Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning over naysayers.
AI Leaders Basket: TSMC and ASML have substantially lagged Nvidia and could serve as AI-exposure alternatives to chasing Nvidia's rally.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Key for Nanya; Hon Hai New 52-Week High; AI Leaders Basket

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung's Next Stake Sale

This post discusses the anticipatory short position accumulation on SFA Engineering in preparation for Samsung Display's upcoming stake sale, which...

Sanghyun Park

Yageo: Left Behind By the 'AI Rally', But Robust Business Still Tied to Strong Power/EV Drivers

We spoke with management. Opportunity to acquire a stock with strong fundamentals... Without having to chase a hyped-up share price.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Key for Nanya; Hon Hai New 52-Week High; AI Leaders Basket

Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

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