Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. </li>
<li>What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. </li>
<li>The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. </li>
</ul>


ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. 
What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 
The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 


ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place</li>
<li>Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand</li>
<li>These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn</li>
</ul>


AI spending is fueling today's semiconductor market, as generative AI demand falls into place
Hyperscale datacenters are doing the bulk of today's spending as they invest in advance of demand
These investments are falling into question, and spending is likely to level off or drop in 2025, leading to a dramatic semiconductor downturn


2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in KT&amp;G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in KT&amp;G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated holding worth USD514.4bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD14mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hyundai Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Nov 8th which has an aggregated holding worth USD514.4bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD14mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hyundai Motor.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hyundai Motor

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY</li>
<li>Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY</li>
<li>PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.</li>
</ul>


Q324 DRAM revenues amounted to $25.4 billion, up 8.6% QoQ and up 92.4% YoY
Q324 NAND revenues amounted to $17.9 billion, up 9.8% QoQ and up 93.6% YoY
PC, Smartphone segments sluggish due to high inventory levels while HBM and DDR5 are on fire driven by insatiable demand in the AI server segment. Decoupling continues into 2025.


Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

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ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

​ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

2025 High Conviction: AI Chip Spend Slows

AI spending is driving strong semiconductor growth today, but see why hyperscale spending, like 2000's Internet Bubble, is approaching an overbuilt...

Jim Handy

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 8th): KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in KT&G, HPSP, Hanwha Systems, Samsung HI.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 8th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDI,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Semiconductor Memory Q324 Revenue Close To Historic Highs Even As Decoupling Intensifies

Q324 DRAM $25.4 billion, +8.6% QoQ & +92.4% YoY. NAND was $17.9 billion, +9.8% QoQ & +93.6% YoY. Legacy markets sluggish while HBM and DDR5 are on...

William Keating

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...