Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The Korean equity market has performed well in both absolute and relative terms over the past twelve months and since the start of 2017, for four main reasons:</p><ul><li>The unusually strong performance of the Korean won, partly in response to the recent decline in the value of the dollar, but also reflecting concerns that the US would label Korea as a currency manipulator given the size of the bilateral trade imbalance. The rising won has been a significant contributor to the year-to-date gain of around…</li></ul>

The Korean equity market has performed well in both absolute and relative terms over the past twelve months and since the start of 2017, for four main reasons:The unusually strong performance of the Korean won, partly in response to the recent decline in the value of the dollar, but also reflecting concerns that the US would label Korea as a currency manipulator given the size of the bilateral trade imbalance. The rising won has been a significant contributor to the year-to-date gain of around…

Korea: Post-Election Chaebol Reforms Likely to Disappoint Investors

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2><strong>What's new?</strong></h2><p>According to the latest research from IDC, China smartphone shipments grew only 1% y/y to 104mn units with stronger y/y growth from Huawei, Oppo, Vivo but larger decline from Xiaomi (-8% y/y), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> (-27% y/y), and others (-10% y/y, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8814" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1">LG Electronics Inc (066570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11581:1">Htc Corp (2498 TT)</a>). Also, IDC said Android smartphone ASPs to increase q/q and y/y largely due to consumers seeking to purchase Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo's…</p>

What's new?According to the latest research from IDC, China smartphone shipments grew only 1% y/y to 104mn units with stronger y/y growth from Huawei, Oppo, Vivo but larger decline from Xiaomi (-8% y/y), Apple Inc (AAPL US) (-27% y/y), and others (-10% y/y, including Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS), LG Electronics Inc (066570 KS), Htc Corp (2498 TT)). Also, IDC said Android smartphone ASPs to increase q/q and y/y largely due to consumers seeking to purchase Huawei, Oppo, and Vivo's…

China Smartphone - Huawei/Oppo/Vivo Gained Shares from Global Brands

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2><em>Summary</em></h2><ul>
<li><em><strong>What's new? </strong>In less than ten days, Qualcomm cuts 2Q17 sales, and GAAP EPS guidance due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple</a> is withholding royalty payments to its contract manufacturers.</em></li>
<li>
<strong><em>What's the cut? </em></strong><em>Qualcomm cuts its 2Q17 sales guidance by nearly US$500mn or nearly 25-30% of quarterly royalty payments to US$4.8-5.6bn from US$5.3-6.1bn. Qualcomm also cuts its 2Q17 GAAP EPS guidance by nearly US$0.23 to US$0.52-0.62.</em>
</li>
<li>
<em><strong>60% higher royalties for Apple?</strong> Assuming 55mn 3G/4G-enabled iPhone/iPADs shipped in 1Q and is</em>…</li>
</ul>

Summary
What's new? In less than ten days, Qualcomm cuts 2Q17 sales, and GAAP EPS guidance due to Apple is withholding royalty payments to its contract manufacturers.

What's the cut? Qualcomm cuts its 2Q17 sales guidance by nearly US$500mn or nearly 25-30% of quarterly royalty payments to US$4.8-5.6bn from US$5.3-6.1bn. Qualcomm also cuts its 2Q17 GAAP EPS guidance by nearly US$0.23 to US$0.52-0.62.


60% higher royalties for Apple? Assuming 55mn 3G/4G-enabled iPhone/iPADs shipped in 1Q and is…


Is Apple Not Paying Royalties to Qualcomm Just a One off or All Others Will Follow Apple?

<h2>Key takeaways from MediaTek quarterly earnings conference</h2><ul><li>
<strong>1Q beat on disposal gain but 2Q miss on all</strong>: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> reports a better than expected 1Q17 EPS of NT$4.20, which was NT$1.0 higher than Bloomberg consensus estimate of NT$3.21 and also better than earlier revised guidance of NT$3.96 due to the disposal gain by selling Mapbar Technology (please see our earlier report " <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mediatek-goes-for-tsmc-ex-ceo-dr-rick-tsai-as-co-ceo-and-raises-1q17-earnings-forecast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9520">MediaTek Goes for TSMC Ex-CEO Dr. Rick Tsai as Co-CEO and Raises 1Q17 Earnings Forecast</a>" dated 22 March 2017…</li></ul>

Key takeaways from MediaTek quarterly earnings conference
1Q beat on disposal gain but 2Q miss on all: Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) reports a better than expected 1Q17 EPS of NT$4.20, which was NT$1.0 higher than Bloomberg consensus estimate of NT$3.21 and also better than earlier revised guidance of NT$3.96 due to the disposal gain by selling Mapbar Technology (please see our earlier report " MediaTek Goes for TSMC Ex-CEO Dr. Rick Tsai as Co-CEO and Raises 1Q17 Earnings Forecast" dated 22 March 2017…

MediaTek Is Betting on 2H17 Margin Recovery on Lower Cost Solution Ramp

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<h2>Korea</h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/820" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:820">Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/612" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> have provided great insights regarding the political turmoil surrounding North Korea. Scott makes it clear in his reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-china-s-view-of-the-north-korea-problem-part-i" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10292">China – China’s View of the North Korea Problem – Part I</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-china-s-view-of-the-north-korea-problem-part-ii" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10321">China – China’s View of the North Korea Problem – Part II</a>, that unlike what some of the western media is trying to portray as China supporting the North Korea nuclear program, this could not be further from the truth. The missile threat from North Korea to China is as big…</p>

KoreaScott Laprise/ 乐天虎 and Prasenjit K. Basu have provided great insights regarding the political turmoil surrounding North Korea. Scott makes it clear in his reports, China – China’s View of the North Korea Problem – Part I &amp; China – China’s View of the North Korea Problem – Part II, that unlike what some of the western media is trying to portray as China supporting the North Korea nuclear program, this could not be further from the truth. The missile threat from North Korea to China is as big…

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma - THAAD Deployment, Mobile Lineage, and Activism in Japan

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSD LI)

Korea: Post-Election Chaebol Reforms Likely to Disappoint Investors

The Korean equity market has performed well in both absolute and relative terms over the past twelve months and since the start of 2017, for four...

John-Paul Smith

China Smartphone - Huawei/Oppo/Vivo Gained Shares from Global Brands

What's new?According to the latest research from IDC, China smartphone shipments grew only 1% y/y to 104mn units with stronger y/y growth from...

Andrew Lu

Is Apple Not Paying Royalties to Qualcomm Just a One off or All Others Will Follow Apple?

Summary What's new? In less than ten days, Qualcomm cuts 2Q17 sales, and GAAP EPS guidance due to Apple is withholding royalty payments to its...

Andrew Lu

MediaTek Is Betting on 2H17 Margin Recovery on Lower Cost Solution Ramp

Key takeaways from MediaTek quarterly earnings conference 1Q beat on disposal gain but 2Q miss on all: Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) reports a better than...

Andrew Lu

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma - THAAD Deployment, Mobile Lineage, and Activism in Japan

KoreaScott Laprise/ 乐天虎 and Prasenjit K. Basu have provided great insights regarding the political turmoil surrounding North Korea. Scott makes it...

Douglas Kim

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52-week Range

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