Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EURSTX index were announced after the close yesterday.</li>
<li>There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 3 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EURSTX index.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a closer look at our final index flow expectations for June 2023.</li>
</ul>


The June 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EURSTX index were announced after the close yesterday.
There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 3 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EURSTX index.
In this insight, we take a closer look at our final index flow expectations for June 2023.


SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>STX Europe 600 members <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.</li>
<li>Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.
Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fastighets-ab-balder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22289:1" rel="noopener">Fastighets Ab Balder (BALDB SS)</a> intends to make an offer to acquire the remaining 66.33% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entra-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22229:1" rel="noopener">Entra ASA (ENTRA NO)</a> for NOK 24.5 bn after it crossed the 33.3% mandatory offer threshold on 12 October. Under the Offer, Balder intends to acquire the remaining 120,811,936 shares of Entra at NOK 202.5/share. Balder prefer Entra to continue to be listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The consideration represents 29x EV/EBITDA, 27.0x deal value/est. FFO, deal value/consensus NAV of 119.4% and c. 2.3% premium to EPRA NRV.
Swedish real estate firms <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samhallsbyggnadsbolaget-i-norden-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31109:1" rel="noopener">Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB (SBBB SS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/castellum-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22321:1" rel="noopener">Castellum AB (CAST SS)</a> had previously tried to acquire Entra, but both withdrew their bids last February after their offers failed to win enough backing (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/entra-asa-competing-offers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45673" rel="noopener">Entra ASA: Competing Offers</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/entra-sbb-castellum-bidding-war-heats-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46523" rel="noopener">Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up</a>).
Castellum acquired a 11.8% stake in Entra from the Norwegian government pension fund in August. The acquisition price was NOK 210/share and Castellum now holds a 30.6% stake. At that time, Balder still held a 30% stake.
The contest for Entra seems far from over. On 13 October, the shares closed at NOK 214.8, 6% above the intended mandatory offer price, and 2.3% above the price paid by Castellum when it acquired a 11.8% stake in August. Castellum may keep on acquiring shares before triggering the mandatory offer threshold.
<div>
An improved bid could come from Castellum, up to a level of NOK 228/share, 15% premium to Entra’s Q2 2021 EPRA NRV, but would surely involve cash and shares.
Regarding takeover offers in Norway, the mandatory offer obligation is again triggered by acquisitions of shares representing more than 40% and 50% of the voting rights (repeat offer obligation).
</div>

Fastighets Ab Balder (BALDB SS) intends to make an offer to acquire the remaining 66.33% stake in Entra ASA (ENTRA NO) for NOK 24.5 bn after it crossed the 33.3% mandatory offer threshold on 12 October. Under the Offer, Balder intends to acquire the remaining 120,811,936 shares of Entra at NOK 202.5/share. Balder prefer Entra to continue to be listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The consideration represents 29x EV/EBITDA, 27.0x deal value/est. FFO, deal value/consensus NAV of 119.4% and c. 2.3% premium to EPRA NRV.
Swedish real estate firms Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB (SBBB SS) and Castellum AB (CAST SS) had previously tried to acquire Entra, but both withdrew their bids last February after their offers failed to win enough backing (see Entra ASA: Competing Offers and Entra - SBB - Castellum: Bidding War Heats Up).
Castellum acquired a 11.8% stake in Entra from the Norwegian government pension fund in August. The acquisition price was NOK 210/share and Castellum now holds a 30.6% stake. At that time, Balder still held a 30% stake.
The contest for Entra seems far from over. On 13 October, the shares closed at NOK 214.8, 6% above the intended mandatory offer price, and 2.3% above the price paid by Castellum when it acquired a 11.8% stake in August. Castellum may keep on acquiring shares before triggering the mandatory offer threshold.

An improved bid could come from Castellum, up to a level of NOK 228/share, 15% premium to Entra’s Q2 2021 EPRA NRV, but would surely involve cash and shares.
Regarding takeover offers in Norway, the mandatory offer obligation is again triggered by acquisitions of shares representing more than 40% and 50% of the voting rights (repeat offer obligation).


Balder/Entra ASA: Game of Thrones in Scandinavian Real Estate

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

Sweden

Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB operates as a real estate company. The Company owns, develops, and manages real estate properties. Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden serves customers in Sweden.

Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB (SBBB SS)

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Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB (SBBB SS)

SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks

The changes are mostly in line with expectations. SE600 and EURSTX DELs have historically managed to underperform the SE600 index on average from...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

Currently, Gerresheimer AG (GXI GR) and Loomis AB (LOOMB SS) are the highest-ranked non-constituents and could be favourites to become intra-review...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Balder/Entra ASA: Game of Thrones in Scandinavian Real Estate

The contest for Entra seems far from over. An improved bid could come from Castellum, up to a level of NOK 228/share, 15% premium to Entra’s Q2...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. We outline the basis for our outlook and also...

Vermilion Research

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