'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/540/original/2020-01-30_04-53-40.png?1580327644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115540"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting results, seven saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while three - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent(4751 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/valuecommerce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7970:1" rel="noopener">ValueCommerce (2491 JP)</a> grew profits by more than 25%, with the last of the three showing the strongest revenue growth. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a> saw sales fall by 23%. Our market composite cap-weighted Results Score declined by 8bps to 0.99</p><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a> released the most optimistic forecasts and account for the 24bps uptick in our Forecast/Revision Score; however, in terms of OP the FY2020 forecast is the same as the FY2016 actual result which was the second-worst outcome in the last decade after FY2019. The weakest outlook came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">Screen (7735 JP)</a> (-28% v TTM OP), which, when combined with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest (6857 JP)</a>'s third-quarter results, should go some way to puncturing the current fad for owning SPE companies.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/543/original/2020-01-30_05-28-22.png?1580329720" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115543"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>POST-RELEASE RPS CHANGES</strong> - Of the larger-cap companies announcing the day before yesterday or pre-close yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-business-consultants" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17383:1" rel="noopener">Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakai-moving-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1" rel="noopener">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a> saw Relative Price Score declines. In contrast, the two Canon group companies, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-jushi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7654:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP)</a> rose.  </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we review our Sector Timelines and the announcements from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC (6701 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent (4751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest(6857 JP)</a>. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting results, seven saw year-on-year declines in their quarterly OP of greater than 25%, while three - NEC (6701 JP), CyberAgent(4751 JP), and ValueCommerce (2491 JP) grew profits by more than 25%, with the last of the three showing the strongest revenue growth. Omron (6645 JP) saw sales fall by 23%. Our market composite cap-weighted Results Score declined by 8bps to 0.99FORECASTS - Canon (7751 JP) released the most optimistic forecasts and account for the 24bps uptick in our Forecast/Revision Score; however, in terms of OP the FY2020 forecast is the same as the FY2016 actual result which was the second-worst outcome in the last decade after FY2019. The weakest outlook came from Screen (7735 JP) (-28% v TTM OP), which, when combined with Advantest (6857 JP)'s third-quarter results, should go some way to puncturing the current fad for owning SPE companies.Source • Japan AnalyticsPOST-RELEASE RPS CHANGES - Of the larger-cap companies announcing the day before yesterday or pre-close yesterday, OBIC (4684 JP), Obic Business Consultants (4733 JP), and Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP) saw Relative Price Score declines. In contrast, the two Canon group companies, M3 (2413 JP), and Sekisui Jushi (4212 JP) rose.  In the DETAIL below, we review our Sector Timelines and the announcements from Fanuc (6954 JP), Canon (7751 JP), NEC (6701 JP), CyberAgent (4751 JP), Omron (6645 JP), and Advantest(6857 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We recently published a piece looking at Sectors that are highly correlated to TOPIX. In the piece, we highlight the other side. Sectors that are not correlated to TOPIX. Now when we get into the smaller-cap space, the correlations to TOPIX tend to be lower. We therefore limited the universe to names above ¥200bn mkt-cap. </p><p><strong>Food &amp; Staples Retailing</strong> is one of the sectors with a pretty low correlation to TOPIX. While, the two largest names by mkt-cap, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1041" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1">Seven &amp; I Holdings Co Ltd (3382 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon Co</a>…</p>

We recently published a piece looking at Sectors that are highly correlated to TOPIX. In the piece, we highlight the other side. Sectors that are not correlated to TOPIX. Now when we get into the smaller-cap space, the correlations to TOPIX tend to be lower. We therefore limited the universe to names above ¥200bn mkt-cap. Food &amp; Staples Retailing is one of the sectors with a pretty low correlation to TOPIX. While, the two largest names by mkt-cap, Seven &amp; I Holdings Co Ltd (3382 JP) and Aeon Co…

Sectors Not Correlated to TOPIX - Retailing, Food & Staples Retailing, and Utilities

<p>With Earning Season upon us we looked back over the last 3 weeks to see which names have had a good increase in volume. At the top of the list was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/209" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:209:1">Kobe Steel Ltd (5406 JP)</a>, but we do not need to get into that. We basically screened for names with a greater than 1 standard deviation spike in volume over the last 3 weeks relative to the 1-year average.</p><h2>Screen Results (Recent spike in Volume)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/036/623/original/2.png?1509047483" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="36623"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><p>Volume for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21018:1">Tsubaki Nakashima Co Ltd (6464 JP)</a> is up 2 standard deviation over the last…</p>

With Earning Season upon us we looked back over the last 3 weeks to see which names have had a good increase in volume. At the top of the list was Kobe Steel Ltd (5406 JP), but we do not need to get into that. We basically screened for names with a greater than 1 standard deviation spike in volume over the last 3 weeks relative to the 1-year average.Screen Results (Recent spike in Volume)Source: Custom ProductsVolume for Tsubaki Nakashima Co Ltd (6464 JP) is up 2 standard deviation over the last…

Names with Increased Volume Leading into Earnings Season....

<p>7 names expected to announce earnings in the next 3 days moved on strong volume yesterday. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14211" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> is the only name where we could find recent news. Monex issued preliminary numbers and announced a pretty weird bond offering.</p><p>On the positive side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18845" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18845:1">Tsugami Corp (6101 JP)</a> is up 4%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12057" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12057:1">Aoi Electronics Co Ltd (6832 JP)</a> is up 3%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12580" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12580:1">Ngk Insulators Ltd (5333 JP)</a> is up 2% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6197:1">Goldcrest Co Ltd (8871 JP)</a> is up 1%.</p><p>On the other side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6327" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6327:1">Nichiha Corp (7943 JP)</a> is down 4%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14211" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>…</p>

7 names expected to announce earnings in the next 3 days moved on strong volume yesterday. Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) is the only name where we could find recent news. Monex issued preliminary numbers and announced a pretty weird bond offering.On the positive side, Tsugami Corp (6101 JP) is up 4%, Aoi Electronics Co Ltd (6832 JP) is up 3%, Ngk Insulators Ltd (5333 JP) is up 2% and Goldcrest Co Ltd (8871 JP) is up 1%.On the other side, Nichiha Corp (7943 JP) is down 4%, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)…

Earnings Leakage Report - 7 Names Moved on Volume Pre-Earnings Announcement (7/25/17)....

<p>With 136 names expected to report 1Q earnings in Japan over the next 3 day, we are starting up the Leakage Report again. The Leakage Report looks to identify names that move on strong volume with little to no news a couple of days before they announce results.</p><p>Yesterday we had 4 names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14211" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1">Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17525:1">Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11793" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11793:1">Saibu Gas Co Ltd (9536 JP)</a>, expected to report in the next 3 day move on strong volume. We looked for news to explain the…</p>

With 136 names expected to report 1Q earnings in Japan over the next 3 day, we are starting up the Leakage Report again. The Leakage Report looks to identify names that move on strong volume with little to no news a couple of days before they announce results.Yesterday we had 4 names, Monex Group Inc (8698 JP), Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP), Chori Co Ltd (8014 JP) and Saibu Gas Co Ltd (9536 JP), expected to report in the next 3 day move on strong volume. We looked for news to explain the…

Earnings Leakage Report - 4 Names Expected to Report Soon Moved on Strong Volume....

Japan

SAIBU GAS CO., LTD. provides gas service primarily in Kita-Kyushu and Fukuoka cities.  The Company also operates in other cities including Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Sasebo, and Shimabara.  Saibu Gas provides gas appliances and gas supply line works as well.

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Saibu Gas (9536 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 29th January - 6954▲ 7751► 6701▲ 4751▲ 6645▼6857▼

29TH JANUARY ROUNDUP - Thre were 74 results and 30 forecasts or revisions announcements yesterday. Of the 32 larger-cap companies reporting...

Campbell Gunn

Sectors Not Correlated to TOPIX - Retailing, Food & Staples Retailing, and Utilities

We recently published a piece looking at Sectors that are highly correlated to TOPIX. In the piece, we highlight the other side. Sectors that are...

Custom Products Group

Names with Increased Volume Leading into Earnings Season....

With Earning Season upon us we looked back over the last 3 weeks to see which names have had a good increase in volume. At the top of the list was...

Custom Products Group

Earnings Leakage Report - 7 Names Moved on Volume Pre-Earnings Announcement (7/25/17)....

7 names expected to announce earnings in the next 3 days moved on strong volume yesterday. Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) is the only name where we...

Custom Products Group

Earnings Leakage Report - 4 Names Expected to Report Soon Moved on Strong Volume....

With 136 names expected to report 1Q earnings in Japan over the next 3 day, we are starting up the Leakage Report again. The Leakage Report looks...

Custom Products Group

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