Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It is important for investors to not get swayed by popular narratives and instead look at the data and historical patterns to make informed decisions. </li>
<li>While a large short position by FIIs may seem concerning, it could actually signal a potential opportunity for positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. </li>
<li>By understanding the reasons behind this contrarian move and the historical trends, investors can navigate bet when FII's short positions are high.</li>
</ul>


It is important for investors to not get swayed by popular narratives and instead look at the data and historical patterns to make informed decisions. 
While a large short position by FIIs may seem concerning, it could actually signal a potential opportunity for positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. 
By understanding the reasons behind this contrarian move and the historical trends, investors can navigate bet when FII's short positions are high.


FII's High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  </li>
<li>Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. </li>
<li>CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.</li>
</ul>


For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  
Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. 
CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.


India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US</li>
<li>India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals</li>
<li>Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.</li>
</ul>


The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US
India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals
Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.


Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

<ul>
<li>RBI's failure to cut the policy rate at its last two policy meetings is a policy error. Although vegetables caused a headline-inflation spurt, core inflation moderated to 2.7%YoY in Sep'24. </li>
<li>High real interest rates have caused real GDP to decelerate to 6.7%YoY in Apr-Jun'24, and industrial output to decline in Aug'24. The policy error is hurting the economy. </li>
<li>Cleverer stance would be to take every opportunity to cut rates when headline inflation is at/below target. When vegetable prices hold policy hostage, it hits investor confidence. (Evidence: FX Reserves).  </li>
</ul>


RBI's failure to cut the policy rate at its last two policy meetings is a policy error. Although vegetables caused a headline-inflation spurt, core inflation moderated to 2.7%YoY in Sep'24. 
High real interest rates have caused real GDP to decelerate to 6.7%YoY in Apr-Jun'24, and industrial output to decline in Aug'24. The policy error is hurting the economy. 
Cleverer stance would be to take every opportunity to cut rates when headline inflation is at/below target. When vegetable prices hold policy hostage, it hits investor confidence. (Evidence: FX Reserves).  


India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

India

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

FII's High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity

Significant short positions by FiIs have historically been followed by positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. Also the current FII short position...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

The return of Trump to global trade raises uncertainty, with China vulnerable and India more insulated, shaping future global economy dynamics.

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

Veg prices can't be controlled by monetary policy, so RBI should've cut rates in Aug & Oct'24, with core & headline inflation below target. Policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

FII's High Short Positions on Indian Markets : Crisis or Opportunity

Significant short positions by FiIs have historically been followed by positive returns in the Nifty 50 index. Also the current FII short position...

Nimish Maheshwari

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

​Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

​The return of Trump to global trade raises uncertainty, with China vulnerable and India more insulated, shaping future global economy dynamics.

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

Veg prices can't be controlled by monetary policy, so RBI should've cut rates in Aug & Oct'24, with core & headline inflation below target. Policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

The return of Trump to global trade raises uncertainty, with China vulnerable and India more insulated, shaping future global economy dynamics.