Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> is expected to stop trading on 19 June following the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/judo-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34571:1" rel="noopener">Judo Capital (JDO AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 19 June to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There has been short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/judo-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34571:1" rel="noopener">Judo Capital</a> over the last 3 months and there does not appear to be enough positioning for the index inclusion yet.</li>
</ul>



CSR Ltd (CSR AU) is expected to stop trading on 19 June following the acquisition by Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP). 

Judo Capital (JDO AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 19 June to replace CSR Ltd (CSR AU). 
There has been short covering in Judo Capital over the last 3 months and there does not appear to be enough positioning for the index inclusion yet.


ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, and no regular changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX in June.</li>
<li>The surprise inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisetech-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22669:1" rel="noopener">Wisetech Global (WTC AU)</a> means that positioning is likely to be lower than the passive buying and there could be a move higher in the stock.</li>
<li>There will be one adhoc inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 19 June following Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU). </li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, and no regular changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX in June.
The surprise inclusion of Wisetech Global (WTC AU) means that positioning is likely to be lower than the passive buying and there could be a move higher in the stock.
There will be one adhoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 19 June following Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU). 


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&amp;A.</li>
<li>Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we take a look at the potential index changes at the June rebalance as well as potential index inclusions due to M&amp;A.
Timing is key for the ad hoc inclusions to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) with an ad hoc inclusion being announced prior to the regular announcement.
Passive trackers will need to buy 1.3-27x ADV on the expected adds and have 0.8-4.7x ADV to sell on the expected deletes. Shorts have built up on the potential deletes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> now holds 85.8% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> and that will lead to deletion of Boral from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 9 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> price movements will be largely influenced by its pending merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (CWG).</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) now holds 85.8% of Boral Ltd (BLD AU) and that will lead to deletion of Boral from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
As expected, Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 9 May.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) price movements will be largely influenced by its pending merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (CWG).


ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)

<ul>
<li>Dar Al-Handasah has sold 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/worleyparsons-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:178:1" rel="noopener">WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)</a> overnight at A$14.35/share, a 12% discount to the last close, to raise A$1.44bn (US$943m).</li>
<li>This reduces Dar's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/worleyparsons-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:178:1" rel="noopener">WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)</a> to 4.5% and will trigger upweights from index providers in the next few days.</li>
<li>The stake sale could also lead to a re-rating of the stock with a large blocking stake off the share register.</li>
</ul>


Dar Al-Handasah has sold 19% of WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) overnight at A$14.35/share, a 12% discount to the last close, to raise A$1.44bn (US$943m).
This reduces Dar's stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) to 4.5% and will trigger upweights from index providers in the next few days.
The stake sale could also lead to a re-rating of the stock with a large blocking stake off the share register.


Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group's A$1.4bn Sale

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light

Judo Capital will replace CSR in the ASX200 at the close on 19 June. There is a lot of JDO stock to be bought by passives and positioning is likely...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There is 1 change for the ASX20, 1 change for the ASX50, 2 changes for the ASX100 in June. Codan and Judo Capital are locked in a race to replace...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

There should be changes for the ASX20, ASX100, ASX200 in June. Timing of the ASX200 inclusions is key with 2 M&A events leading to ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)

Boral will be deleted from the ASX200 at the close on 9 May and replaced by Sigma Healthcare (SIG). There will be more passive buying in SIG...

Brian Freitas

Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group's A$1.4bn Sale

Dar Group has sold a 19% stake in Worley to raise A$1.44bn. This will trigger passive buying and short covering and could lead to a re-rating of...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Judo Capital to Replace CSR; Positioning Appears Light

Judo Capital will replace CSR in the ASX200 at the close on 19 June. There is a lot of JDO stock to be bought by passives and positioning is likely...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There is 1 change for the ASX20, 1 change for the ASX50, 2 changes for the ASX100 in June. Codan and Judo Capital are locked in a race to replace...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June

There should be changes for the ASX20, ASX100, ASX200 in June. Timing of the ASX200 inclusions is key with 2 M&A events leading to ad hoc...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)

Boral will be deleted from the ASX200 at the close on 9 May and replaced by Sigma Healthcare (SIG). There will be more passive buying in SIG...

Brian Freitas

Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group's A$1.4bn Sale

Dar Group has sold a 19% stake in Worley to raise A$1.44bn. This will trigger passive buying and short covering and could lead to a re-rating of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Regular & Ad Hoc Changes in June