Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the (required) equity risk premium on bank stocks has increased, but especially in the case of US banks, it is not at extreme levels. </li>
<li>The forward P/E ratio of European bank stocks has dropped to distressed/recessionary levels, while the forward P/E of US bank stocks is 'seriously low' at 8.</li>
<li>However, based on the Price-to-Book ratio, bank valuation is average.  Given elevated contagion risks and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank stock valuation alone is insufficient to overweight the sector.</li>
</ul>


Unsurprisingly, the (required) equity risk premium on bank stocks has increased, but especially in the case of US banks, it is not at extreme levels. 
The forward P/E ratio of European bank stocks has dropped to distressed/recessionary levels, while the forward P/E of US bank stocks is 'seriously low' at 8.
However, based on the Price-to-Book ratio, bank valuation is average.  Given elevated contagion risks and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank stock valuation alone is insufficient to overweight the sector.


Banks Vs. Market: A Closer Look at Equity Risk Premia and Other Valuation Measures

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>SPX low due near March 27 that sets up a recovery sequence into April. Macro remains bearish into the summer months where financial sector risk is to resurface.</li>
<li>Weekly MACD set to roll over from reliable resistance after the 4,000 rejection on the daily chart.</li>
<li>USD holding firm in Asia and EM due to pending risk aversion. Euro rise is corrective in nature.</li>
</ul>


SPX low due near March 27 that sets up a recovery sequence into April. Macro remains bearish into the summer months where financial sector risk is to resurface.
Weekly MACD set to roll over from reliable resistance after the 4,000 rejection on the daily chart.
USD holding firm in Asia and EM due to pending risk aversion. Euro rise is corrective in nature.


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets.</li><li>Two bank failures in the US, and we go from No Landing to Crash Landing.</li><li>The three days move in 2-year yields was the most significant drop since 1987 and a $ 485 billion loss in banks' market cap.</li></ul>

We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets.Two bank failures in the US, and we go from No Landing to Crash Landing.The three days move in 2-year yields was the most significant drop since 1987 and a $ 485 billion loss in banks' market cap.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research

Banks Vs. Market: A Closer Look at Equity Risk Premia and Other Valuation Measures

Given the high uncertainty related to contagion risks and increased regulatory scrutiny, we think bank stock valuation alone is insufficient to...

Jeroen Blokland

SPX Macro Bear into the Summer

SPX low due near March 27 that sets up a recovery sequence into April. Macro remains bearish into the summer months where financial sector risk is...

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Mean Reversion

We seem to be playing to the Oscar-winning movie title “Everything Everywhere All at Once” in the financial markets. Two bank failures in the US,...

Untying The Gordian Knot