Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?</li>
<li>In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.</li>
<li>The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!</li>
</ul>


It seems another US regional bank is heading for the exit. Commercial Real Estate continues to haunt the banking industry. Is another banking crisis coming?
In January, the ISM Manufacturing Index defied gravity (and all regional PMI indices), erasing 10% of stock market downside. Yet, risks linger on the downside when it comes to the ISM.
The Bank of England was split on the decision to hold interest rates steady. But the writing is on the wall with the first rate cut proposal in four years!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.</li>
<li>Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,</li>
<li>With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. </li>
</ul>


Beyond the official communiqué, Chairman Powell reiterated his dovish stance in his press conference, underscoring the Fed’s intense commitment to achieving a ‘soft landing.
Despite robust GDP growth, the ISM Manufacturing Index already calls for lower interest rates,
With Powell highlighting the current restrictive nature of rates and the likelihood of forthcoming inflation data bolstering the Fed’s confidence, rate cuts could soon be on the horizon. 


Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>US Q4 2023 GDP data "surprised" the market on the upside</li>
<li>US Inflation appears even lower than the government reported statistics</li>
<li>Japan inflation statistics ease and the BOJ hints at ending negative rates</li>
</ul>


US Q4 2023 GDP data "surprised" the market on the upside
US Inflation appears even lower than the government reported statistics
Japan inflation statistics ease and the BOJ hints at ending negative rates


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

<ul>
<li>The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.</li>
<li>Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.</li>
<li>When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!</li>
</ul>


The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.
Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.
When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

I explain why the odds of a systemic banking crisis are limited, yet not zero. But like the soft landing, the Federal Reserve will cut rates...

Jeroen Blokland

Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

While the official FOMC statement shows the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, Powell's hunger for a soft landing means they are closer than it seems.

Jeroen Blokland

More Food (Data) For Thought

"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...

Rikki Malik

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Another Banking Crisis? Not if Powell Has Anything to Say About It!

I explain why the odds of a systemic banking crisis are limited, yet not zero. But like the soft landing, the Federal Reserve will cut rates...

Jeroen Blokland

Key Insight from the Federal Reserve Meeting: Soft Landing Rules!

While the official FOMC statement shows the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, Powell's hunger for a soft landing means they are closer than it seems.

Jeroen Blokland

More Food (Data) For Thought

​"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...

Rikki Malik

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

"Positive surprise in US Q4 2023 GDP, while inflation remains lower than reported! Japan's easing inflation and BOJ's potential end to negative...