Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.</li>
<li>We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.</li>
<li>We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.</li>
</ul>


Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.
We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.
We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rising valuations during the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce the view of an inherent capacity to overshoot to the upside, but it is too early to conclude that subsequent compression is over. </li>
<li>Compression in US equity prices in 2022 lowered secular valuation indicators, but they are not indicating the emergence of the deep long-term value that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.</li>
<li>The prolonged period of P/E multiple compression in the aftermath of the internet bubble bursting meant that US equity returns became earnings-driven, an outcome that is likely to repeat. </li>
</ul>


Rising valuations during the COVID-19 pandemic reinforce the view of an inherent capacity to overshoot to the upside, but it is too early to conclude that subsequent compression is over. 
Compression in US equity prices in 2022 lowered secular valuation indicators, but they are not indicating the emergence of the deep long-term value that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s.
The prolonged period of P/E multiple compression in the aftermath of the internet bubble bursting meant that US equity returns became earnings-driven, an outcome that is likely to repeat. 


US Equity Valuations: Less Expensive, but Not Indicating the Emergence of Deep Value

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

SPX Trendline to Define

Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.

Thomas Schroeder

US Equity Valuations: Less Expensive, but Not Indicating the Emergence of Deep Value

US equity valuations have displayed a tendency to overshoot to the upside over the past 30 years. Despite recent compression, prospective and...

DeSaque Macro Research