Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Rising US inflation since 2021 H2 has not produced the same prolific P/E multiple compression witnessed in the 1970s,  based on the premise that higher inflation will not be protracted.</li>
<li>Since the end of the last recession, companies have resorted to price increases to preserve operating margins, thereby generating economy-wide inflation and some downward pressure on P/E multiples.</li>
<li>Sticky US inflation raises the spectre of equity returns being earnings-driven, while only those companies enjoying positive real earnings growth will be considered for higher valuations.</li>
</ul>


Rising US inflation since 2021 H2 has not produced the same prolific P/E multiple compression witnessed in the 1970s,  based on the premise that higher inflation will not be protracted.
Since the end of the last recession, companies have resorted to price increases to preserve operating margins, thereby generating economy-wide inflation and some downward pressure on P/E multiples.
Sticky US inflation raises the spectre of equity returns being earnings-driven, while only those companies enjoying positive real earnings growth will be considered for higher valuations.


Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>One useful way of finding emerging trends and potential market leadership is by spotting divergences in sectors, companies, and indexes.</li><li>Alternatively, spotting negative divergences can be useful to identify when existing trends are reversing or about to reverse judged solely by the observed price action.</li><li>Divergences can often give helpful clues of new market leadership which then can be confirmed by technical charts and especially volume or accumulation signs.</li></ul>

One useful way of finding emerging trends and potential market leadership is by spotting divergences in sectors, companies, and indexes.Alternatively, spotting negative divergences can be useful to identify when existing trends are reversing or about to reverse judged solely by the observed price action.Divergences can often give helpful clues of new market leadership which then can be confirmed by technical charts and especially volume or accumulation signs.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Efforts to Preserve Operating Margins Produce Inflation and US Equity Valuation Concerns

US corporations have focussed on preserving high operating margins for many years. Recent price increases aimed at maintaining margins have simply...

DeSaque Macro Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 11/21

One useful way of finding emerging trends and potential market leadership is by spotting divergences in sectors, companies, and indexes.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder