Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. </li>
<li>Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.</li>
<li>After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.</li>
</ul>


Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. 
Commodities lag once the tightening cycle is in, likely reflecting declining economic activity as higher rates push down GDP growth.
After a weak six months, the return on Gold recovers quickly, comfortably beating the broader commodity index.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Cooling?

<ul>
<li>Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans point to a US recession.</li>
<li>Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans suggest the US high yield default rate should quadruple this year to above 7% from 1.7% last year.</li>
<li>Equity market valuation has recently increased, moving in the exact opposite direction of lending standards.</li>
</ul>


Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans point to a US recession.
Tighter lending standards for Commercial &amp; Industrial loans suggest the US high yield default rate should quadruple this year to above 7% from 1.7% last year.
Equity market valuation has recently increased, moving in the exact opposite direction of lending standards.


Fed Lending Survey: Bad for Growth, Spreads, and Equities

<ul>
<li>US equities have celebrated the end of more recent major Fed tightening cycles, realizing healthy returns after the final rate hike.</li>
<li>Things look pretty different after the first Fed rate cut following these major tightening cycles.</li>
<li>US equities also do well between the final Fed hike and the first rate cut. Stay tuned as we will expand this analysis to other asset classes.</li>
</ul>


US equities have celebrated the end of more recent major Fed tightening cycles, realizing healthy returns after the final rate hike.
Things look pretty different after the first Fed rate cut following these major tightening cycles.
US equities also do well between the final Fed hike and the first rate cut. Stay tuned as we will expand this analysis to other asset classes.


Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part I Equities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part II Equities, Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold

Equities and Treasuries shine once the Fed's final rate hike is in, but the latter do so with much lower risk. Commodities lag once the tightening...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- China Cooling?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Fed Lending Survey: Bad for Growth, Spreads, and Equities

Based on tighter lending standards, the US high yield default rate should quadruple to above 7% from 1.7% last year, and bond spreads must widen...

Jeroen Blokland

Asset Class Performance After the Final Hike – Part I Equities

Historically, US equities have performed reasonably well to strongly after the Fed's final hike and until the first rate cut.

Jeroen Blokland