Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.</li>
<li>This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.</li>
<li>Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.</li>
</ul>


Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.
This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.
Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.


Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

<ul>
<li>AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.</li>
<li>The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.</li>
<li>Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.</li>
</ul>


AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.
The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.
Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Bad Data Is Good?

<ul>
<li>The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.</li>
<li>China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.</li>
<li>Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.</li>
</ul>


The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.
China's reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.
Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.


Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Our analysis of bellwether earnings indicators reveals a 20% decline in earnings-per-share for global equities is on the horizon!

Jeroen Blokland

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

Macro Momentum is fading, but market Momentum is building. Even though the outlook for Equities is challenging, markets couldn't care less currently.

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Bad Data Is Good?

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way

The latest round of data shows Macro Momentum is fading, something that equity markets and other risky assets are not pricing currently.

Jeroen Blokland