Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).</li>
<li>The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.</li>
<li>Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be <strong>very</strong> oversold.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX is OVERSOLD, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. There will be a LONG reversal soon, and it should be a MONTHLY reversal (at least 1 month uptrending).
The WEEKLY model is telling us the market is oversold, but there is a possibility of having 1-2 more weeks down, that should be the end of the correction.
Go LONG Global Equities and pay attention to the MONTHLY (4203) and WEEKLY (4077) supports: if the index reaches these supports it will be very oversold.


EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX WEEKLY/MONTHLY OVERSOLD: Global Bounce Upcoming

​The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

The SP500 Index is WEEKLY and MONTHLY OVERSOLD: a LONG reversal is expected soon in US equities and Asian and Global equities should follow.