Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell &amp; Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.</li>
<li>Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.</li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&amp;P 500 Index, the S&amp;P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!</li>
</ul>


Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell &amp; Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.
Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.
Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&amp;P 500 Index, the S&amp;P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!


Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers</li>
<li>Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is at 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at $350-$355 support. No "decisive" breakdowns quite yet as supports show signs of holding.
Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, making this a logical spot for small-caps to bounce and an attractive risk/reward for buyers
Continue to see signs of breadth possibly bottoming-out. Both the SPX and Russell 2000 and the % of stocks above their 50-day and 20-day MAs display bullish breadth divergences.


Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Crypto Research and Data, Delphi Digital

Delphi Digital

Crypto Research and Data

Institutional-Grade Crypto Research & Data

Delphi Digital seeks to produce unbiased, actionable content for our clients on critical themes affecting digital assets and distributed ledger technology. Our team is committed to providing investors and institutions with key insights through a diverse suite of products including individual project analysis, bespoke research, and tailored consulting services.

Crypto

<ul>
<li>Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.</li>
<li>We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions</li>
<li>We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.</li>
</ul>


Crypto prices are still tracking our expected cycle trend, and the next big test is whether we see another period of consolidation — or if the breakout is finally near.
We outline a few notable risks in the near term that may stand in the way of the next crypto uptrend: stagnant liquidity, buyer exhaustion, further tightening in financial conditions
We don’t see these risks as long-term trends and view any downside volatility as an opportunity to increase exposure to the best assets at even better entry prices.


Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

The Fed gave investors a dovish tilt to what was aimed at a hawkish message, outflanking a very bearish message coming from the ISM Manufacturing!

Jeroen Blokland

Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

$RTY $IWM $SPX $SPY and the % of stocks above their 50-day MAs (and 20-day MAs) display bullish breadth divergences. Similar bullish divergences in...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...

Delphi Digital

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

The Fed gave investors a dovish tilt to what was aimed at a hawkish message, outflanking a very bearish message coming from the ISM Manufacturing!

Jeroen Blokland

Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist; Russell 2000 Testing 1.5-Year Support; Buys in Education Svcs

$RTY $IWM $SPX $SPY and the % of stocks above their 50-day MAs (and 20-day MAs) display bullish breadth divergences. Similar bullish divergences in...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Through the Fire - Will the Rubber Meet the Road?

​Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...

Delphi Digital

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Crypto prices are following expected trends, but face short-term risks like stagnant liquidity and further financial tightening. We view downside...