Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> at the moment has lost its momentum and is pulling back towards the Q2 (4751) and Q3 (4713) support levels, where it would be DAILY OVERSOLD.</li>
<li>A DAILY reversal could happen today or tomorrow from prices between 4750 and 4700.</li>
<li>
<strong>This trade is a quick scalp</strong>, the goal is to profit from a 1-bar reversal, after that we cannot predict the market direction, so caution is advised.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX at the moment has lost its momentum and is pulling back towards the Q2 (4751) and Q3 (4713) support levels, where it would be DAILY OVERSOLD.
A DAILY reversal could happen today or tomorrow from prices between 4750 and 4700.

This trade is a quick scalp, the goal is to profit from a 1-bar reversal, after that we cannot predict the market direction, so caution is advised.


EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

<ul>
<li>A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". </li>
<li>A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.</li>
<li>The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.</li>
</ul>


A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". 
A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.
The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.


EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Daily Liquidity has tanked lower, causing bond term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows</li>
<li>S&amp;P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200 because of skidding Liquidity, but may even drop below 3000 as earnings get crushed.</li>
<li>Lower term premia are already set-in-stone and have  always led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. US S&amp;P500 earnings could skid by over 20% in 2023  </li>
</ul>


Daily Liquidity has tanked lower, causing bond term premia to worryingly collapse to near all-time lows
S&amp;P500 (SPX) likely to test 3200 because of skidding Liquidity, but may even drop below 3000 as earnings get crushed.
Lower term premia are already set-in-stone and have  always led to much weaker reported corporate earnings some 15 months later. US S&amp;P500 earnings could skid by over 20% in 2023  


Icarus Is Falling! The Markets Are Breaking: More Volatility Is Coming

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> has been closing up for 9 consecutive weeks (CC=+9). In theory it could go higher for another 3 weeks, but it is ultra-OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>The market has moved past the Tails resistance limit at 4747 this last week, rallying more than +15% from the bottom on October 26th.</li>
<li>A SHORT trade may not be effective but being prepared for a pullback is a good idea, maybe just to add positions at better prices (assuming the rally will continue).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX has been closing up for 9 consecutive weeks (CC=+9). In theory it could go higher for another 3 weeks, but it is ultra-OVERBOUGHT.
The market has moved past the Tails resistance limit at 4747 this last week, rallying more than +15% from the bottom on October 26th.
A SHORT trade may not be effective but being prepared for a pullback is a good idea, maybe just to add positions at better prices (assuming the rally will continue).


EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

Icarus Is Falling! The Markets Are Breaking: More Volatility Is Coming

Higher forex volatility and higher bond volatility eventually pass through into higher equity volatility. Second leg-down in this bear market is...

Michael J. Howell

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

The SPX Index has closed up for 9 straight weeks, but it is now ultra-overbought and may experience a WEEKLY pullback soon. The following rally...

Nico Rosti

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX DAILY LONG Reversal Probability Increasing

​The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

Icarus Is Falling! The Markets Are Breaking: More Volatility Is Coming

Higher forex volatility and higher bond volatility eventually pass through into higher equity volatility. Second leg-down in this bear market is...

Michael J. Howell

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Rally Is At A Crucial Fork: Higher or Lower?

​The SPX Index has closed up for 9 straight weeks, but it is now ultra-overbought and may experience a WEEKLY pullback soon. The following rally...

Nico Rosti

The SPX Index's rally is losing momentum, the current pullback could soon reach Q2/Q3 support levels (OVERSOLD). A quick LONG scalp trade is...

The SPX Index has closed up for 9 straight weeks, but it is now ultra-overbought and may experience a WEEKLY pullback soon. The following rally...