Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin AND gold made new all-time highs, which is by no means a coincidence. Gold’s market cap is now over USD 16 trillion, which is important for two reasons.</li>
<li>The Fed has multiple reasons to cut rates even though GDP growth is resilient, including bank defaults, the commercial real estate crisis, and evaporating liquidity.</li>
<li>The ECB should cut rates, too; it runs the risk of getting in on the action too late.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin AND gold made new all-time highs, which is by no means a coincidence. Gold’s market cap is now over USD 16 trillion, which is important for two reasons.
The Fed has multiple reasons to cut rates even though GDP growth is resilient, including bank defaults, the commercial real estate crisis, and evaporating liquidity.
The ECB should cut rates, too; it runs the risk of getting in on the action too late.


The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change</li>
<li>In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.</li>
<li>Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates</li>
</ul>


The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. We will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change
In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook on the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Fueled by toppy DXY and rates


Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.</li><li>As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.</li><li>The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

<ul>
<li>Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).</li>
<li>The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!</li>
<li>In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).
The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!
In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index. Yikes!


ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.</li>
<li>This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?</li>
<li>That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.
This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?
That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!

Forget the macro data for a moment. This week was all about central banks opening the door to policy easing and scarce assets recording new all...

Jeroen Blokland

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Roll Over

Gold $GLD $GC_F Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as $DXY and Treasury Yields Roll Over $TNX $TYX; Seeing More Risk-On Signals, Not Less....

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems...

Steno Research

ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

Even though some structural changes can explain part of the lackluster performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index, 26% potential downside should be...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week's most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland