Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correcting Excess Optimism

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

S&P 500: Is This the 2008 Crash in Reverse?

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
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Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
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Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
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Tuesday…</li>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

If market economists and the media are to be believed, the biggest threat to stock market performance is a sudden upsurge in ‘inflation’. We use scare marks around the word because they use the term in the narrow definitional sense of consumer price inflation or, as is the case in the US, core consumer prices. In our view, the real elephant in the room is the prospect that no-one even seems to consider as being a problematic event: the resumption of cyclically strong growth. If the US economy were to pick up to around 3-4% real growth in 2018 we would expect the S&amp;P500 to trade well below current levels by end of 2018 – and that is without any further interest rate increases.

If market economists and the media are to be believed, the biggest threat to stock market performance is a sudden upsurge in ‘inflation’. We use scare marks around the word because they use the term in the narrow definitional sense of consumer price inflation or, as is the case in the US, core consumer prices. In our view, the real elephant in the room is the prospect that no-one even seems to consider as being a problematic event: the resumption of cyclically strong growth. If the US economy were to pick up to around 3-4% real growth in 2018 we would expect the S&amp;P500 to trade well below current levels by end of 2018 – and that is without any further interest rate increases.

Economist

Richard Iley

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/043/154/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-29%20at%208.30.30%20AM.png?1517176854" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="43154"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
At 2.6% q/q SAAR,<a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp4q17_adv.pdf" target="_blank"> the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP</a> was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…
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At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correcting Excess Optimism

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: Is This the 2008 Crash in Reverse?

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to...

Peter Beuttell

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Mr Trump's Black Elephant

If market economists and the media are to be believed, the biggest threat to stock market performance is a sudden upsurge in ‘inflation’. We use...

Dr. Jim Walker

Chart of the Day: What Lies Beneath

At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look....

Richard Iley