Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the past half year. Yesterday, the FOMC signalled an even more hawkish stance, with the dot plot forecasting 2 more rate hikes this year and 3 in 2019, and the removal of 6-year-old language about the Funds rate remaining below its expected long-run rate. Powell also acknowledged that fiscal policy is very stimulative. The tightening of monetary conditions…

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the past half year. Yesterday, the FOMC signalled an even more hawkish stance, with the dot plot forecasting 2 more rate hikes this year and 3 in 2019, and the removal of 6-year-old language about the Funds rate remaining below its expected long-run rate. Powell also acknowledged that fiscal policy is very stimulative. The tightening of monetary conditions…

Fed's Hawkish Hike: Curve-Flattening Recession Risks Remain Despite the Slight Cut in the IOER

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market angst and volatility. The latter, it is claimed, will deny emerging markets and others of the dollars they so desperately require to keep the wheels on the tracks. Combined, the higher rates and dollar shortage will cause global slowing and emerging market currency volatility. Recognise the narrative?Does any of it make any sense? No. For sure, we are in a period of market instability - hardly surprising after so many years of smooth sailing - but are we in market, growth and currency meltdown mode? Not at all.

The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market angst and volatility. The latter, it is claimed, will deny emerging markets and others of the dollars they so desperately require to keep the wheels on the tracks. Combined, the higher rates and dollar shortage will cause global slowing and emerging market currency volatility. Recognise the narrative?Does any of it make any sense? No. For sure, we are in a period of market instability - hardly surprising after so many years of smooth sailing - but are we in market, growth and currency meltdown mode? Not at all.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Risk correlations and post summit pivots<div style="text-align: left;">We wanted to refresh near term risk points as we attempt to coordinate a USD/JPY top, bond price low, USD low and VIX low as noted below with S&amp;P 2,800 tactical fade level. We remain bullish equities but see risk of profit taking on the back of the North Korea/US summit given the G-7 poor outcome.</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/054/941/original/SUMMIT%20RISK%20FOUR.png?1528786670" data-smartkarma-image-id="54941"></figure>USD/JPY - Closed half our recent short at 109.40 yesterday and hit our trailing stop on our 111.30 short at 110.30. We are now flat and looking to sell a spike…
</div>

Risk correlations and post summit pivotsWe wanted to refresh near term risk points as we attempt to coordinate a USD/JPY top, bond price low, USD low and VIX low as noted below with S&amp;P 2,800 tactical fade level. We remain bullish equities but see risk of profit taking on the back of the North Korea/US summit given the G-7 poor outcome.
USD/JPY - Closed half our recent short at 109.40 yesterday and hit our trailing stop on our 111.30 short at 110.30. We are now flat and looking to sell a spike…


Post Summit Hurdles, Pivot Levels and Path to S&P 2,960

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul><li>U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).</li></ul>

U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Refiners & Med Device Makers

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In price terms US equities are in no man’s land with the late January high and the early February low both remaining untested. On the face of it the bearish case is solid. Global trade war concerns refuse to go away, geopolitical tensions are still elevated, and even though investors have celebrated the fact that Italy has finally got a new government, the “tweaked” coalition is still much more Euro sceptic than previous administrations leading many (including us) to think that another…

In price terms US equities are in no man’s land with the late January high and the early February low both remaining untested. On the face of it the bearish case is solid. Global trade war concerns refuse to go away, geopolitical tensions are still elevated, and even though investors have celebrated the fact that Italy has finally got a new government, the “tweaked” coalition is still much more Euro sceptic than previous administrations leading many (including us) to think that another…

The Market Sentimentalist - No Man's Land (Thoughts on US Equities)

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Fed's Hawkish Hike: Curve-Flattening Recession Risks Remain Despite the Slight Cut in the IOER

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Dollar Shortage? Only for the Foolish

The chattering classes have two new themes, higher interest rates and quantitative tapering. The former, it is argued, is what is causing market...