Recession Watch: Fluctuating Trade War on the Verge of Tripping up the World Economy
The US 10y-2y yield curve (a near perfect predictor of recessions 6-24 months ahead) has inverted. We expect early easing action by the Fed to...
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El Paso: Trump's Waterloo
Consequential changes in sentiment in key states underscore the presidential prospects for the Democratic Party primary leader, former Vice...
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Here We Go Again
In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite...
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Democratic Primary: After Running Debate Gauntlets, Biden Emerges On Track
Ramifications of the 2020 US presidential election, 15 months away, will be global. Diverse outcomes are possible given the breadth of the...
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Risk Ripples Below SPX 2950
In this webcast we update levels and momentum triggers in our base case bear scenario post Fed and below SPX 2,950. We started shorting weaker...
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