Founder, TPW Advisory

TPW Advisory

Founder

Independent Investment Advisory Boutique

TPW Advisory is an independent investment advisory boutique located in NYC offering asset allocation & portfolio strategy advice, white label research and global, multi asset ETF based model portfolio delivery services.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I have been consistently vocal in my bullish outlook for risk assets for much of the past two years</li><li>COP26 may not have been all climate activists hoped for but it was far from a nothing burger</li><li>Worries of an imminent US recession are on the rise driven by a huge gap between consumer &amp; investor confidence</li></ul>

I have been consistently vocal in my bullish outlook for risk assets for much of the past two yearsCOP26 may not have been all climate activists hoped for but it was far from a nothing burgerWorries of an imminent US recession are on the rise driven by a huge gap between consumer &amp; investor confidence

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Risks as I See Them

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). </li>
<li>Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). 
Gold miners (GDX) are attractive bottom-fishing candidates as price and RS show signs of bottoming -- add exposure. We are bullish as long as the GDX is above $31
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, Gold, GDX, AMZN, NFLX, JD, VIPS, SSTK, OSTK, KL, BTG, AGI, PVG, EGO, SA, IAG, NGD, GFI, AU, and HMY


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<p>Fears of stagflation have risen, thereby implying a potential return to the negative correlation between US Treasury yields and equity prices that prevailed in the 1970s.  The 1967 to 2000 period of the negative correlation witnessed powerful secular bull and bear markets for Treasuries and equities that can be explained by the behaviour of inflationary expectations.</p>
<div>The high starting point for declining bond yields and inflation prolonged the period of disinflation that extended the duration of the negative bond yield-equity price correlation, as well as boosting equity valuations. After the global financial crisis, quantitative easing was supposed to reduce bond yields and boost risky asset prices, but, although equity valuations have risen, the impact on the bond yield-equity correlation has been less profound than popularly perceived. Significant deflationary external shocks in late-1990s and the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000 ushered in a prolonged period of a positive correlation between bond yields and equity prices that has proven to be difficult to reverse.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Treasuries and equities were viewed as competing asset classes in the 1970s and 1980s due to much higher expected returns. Thereafter, the growth of multi-asset portfolio management over the past 20 years is a testimony to investors viewing bonds and equities as complementary asset classes, while the positive bond yield-equity correlation provides a convenient backdrop to mitigate portfolio volatility and, consequently, risk.</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div>Fears of a return to stagflation began in mid-February temporarily produced a negative bond yield-equity correlation, but the Fed acted quickly to calm markets. Rising inflationary expectations, falling Fed credibility and excessive monetary tightening are probably all required to push the correlation into negative territory. Expected returns of US Treasuries also need to offer more compelling competition to equities in order to produce a negative correlation, an unlikely outcome for the time being.</div>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>Currently, investors still have great faith in the Fed, but the inflation outcomes over the next 12-24 months will be crucial in determining the path of hitherto well-anchored inflationary expectations and, consequently, the relationship between bonds and equities.</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>

Fears of stagflation have risen, thereby implying a potential return to the negative correlation between US Treasury yields and equity prices that prevailed in the 1970s.  The 1967 to 2000 period of the negative correlation witnessed powerful secular bull and bear markets for Treasuries and equities that can be explained by the behaviour of inflationary expectations.
The high starting point for declining bond yields and inflation prolonged the period of disinflation that extended the duration of the negative bond yield-equity price correlation, as well as boosting equity valuations. After the global financial crisis, quantitative easing was supposed to reduce bond yields and boost risky asset prices, but, although equity valuations have risen, the impact on the bond yield-equity correlation has been less profound than popularly perceived. Significant deflationary external shocks in late-1990s and the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000 ushered in a prolonged period of a positive correlation between bond yields and equity prices that has proven to be difficult to reverse.

Treasuries and equities were viewed as competing asset classes in the 1970s and 1980s due to much higher expected returns. Thereafter, the growth of multi-asset portfolio management over the past 20 years is a testimony to investors viewing bonds and equities as complementary asset classes, while the positive bond yield-equity correlation provides a convenient backdrop to mitigate portfolio volatility and, consequently, risk.


Fears of a return to stagflation began in mid-February temporarily produced a negative bond yield-equity correlation, but the Fed acted quickly to calm markets. Rising inflationary expectations, falling Fed credibility and excessive monetary tightening are probably all required to push the correlation into negative territory. Expected returns of US Treasuries also need to offer more compelling competition to equities in order to produce a negative correlation, an unlikely outcome for the time being.


Currently, investors still have great faith in the Fed, but the inflation outcomes over the next 12-24 months will be crucial in determining the path of hitherto well-anchored inflationary expectations and, consequently, the relationship between bonds and equities.





Positive Correlation Between US Bond Yields and S&P500 Suggests Investors Do Not Expect Stagflation

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<p>We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (<strong>IWM</strong>) and Industrials (<strong>XLI</strong>) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (<strong>MCHI</strong>) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.</p><p>Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK</p>

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Financial crises are essentially<strong> scrambles for liquidity</strong>
</li>
<li>Liquidity supply has lately been <strong>dominated by Central Bank infusions</strong>
</li>
<li>Post-1990s crises triggered by <strong>tight Central Banks</strong> and foreign capital outflows</li>
<li>Pre-1980s crises triggered by <strong>high inflations</strong> and private sector cash drains</li>
<li>Worsening inflation and the <strong>upcoming Fed taper</strong> need to be watched.</li>
</ul>


Financial crises are essentially scrambles for liquidity

Liquidity supply has lately been dominated by Central Bank infusions

Post-1990s crises triggered by tight Central Banks and foreign capital outflows
Pre-1980s crises triggered by high inflations and private sector cash drains
Worsening inflation and the upcoming Fed taper need to be watched.


United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Risks as I See Them

I have been consistently vocal in my bullish outlook for risk assets for much of the past two years. Of course, I have tried to pay attention to...

TPW Advisory

Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold

Our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). We continue to believe we have...

Vermilion Research

Positive Correlation Between US Bond Yields and S&P500 Suggests Investors Do Not Expect Stagflation

Stagflation was associated with a negative correlation between US bond yields and equity prices. Correlations have been stubbornly positive since...

DeSaque Macro Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD...

Vermilion Research

What Triggers Financial Crises?

We show what to watch for in order to spot a coming financial crisis. Deteriorating liquidity is key. Latest data warn that 41% of Central Banks...

Michael J. Howell