Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates</li>
<li>Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?</li>
<li>With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding</li>
</ul>


By some measures, combined Jan-Feb volume growth slowed vs recent trend growth rates
Volume leader ZTO rejoining volume share game in FY25, -ive implications for pricing?
With concerns about mainstream price growing, we continue to favor only SF Holding


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a>, the world's largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a target="_blank" rel="noopener">CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.  </li>
<li>In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.</li>
</ul>



Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), the world's largest supplier of EV and ESS batteries, is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
In CATL H Share Listing: The Investment Case, a leading market position, forecasted return to growth, peer-leading profitability, cash generation, peer-leading FCF margin and an attractive valuation are highlighted.  
In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its H Shares compared to the A Shares.


<ul>
<li>In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns</li>
<li>In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business</li>
<li>In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing</li>
</ul>


In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns
In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business
In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing


Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

<ul>
<li>Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong</li>
<li>We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses</li>
<li>We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time</li>
</ul>


Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong
We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses
We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time


Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Combined January-February parcel volume growth moderated, but it's too early to say this is a departure from trend. We're now more concerned about...

Tracking Traffic

CATL H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

CATL is potentially launching an H Share listing on Tuesday to raise US$5 billion. In this note, I examine the likely discount CATL will offer its...

Arun George

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic