New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for.</li><li>The ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last five years was driven equally by (1) WIP build up, and (2) poor cash recycling.</li><li>Our detailed analysis of the debt accumulation causes suggests that the announced pivot to less high density villages and less care should be enough to get back to 100% cash recycling</li></ul>

We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for.The ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last five years was driven equally by (1) WIP build up, and (2) poor cash recycling.Our detailed analysis of the debt accumulation causes suggests that the announced pivot to less high density villages and less care should be enough to get back to 100% cash recycling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Covenants are not created equal; we do not forecast any breaches, and if it gets close, we expect leniency from the banks</li><li>Level of debt likely a key driver of performance over next 18 months — OCA and RYM best positioned</li><li>In theory an inflationary environment should be good news for aged care stocks</li></ul>

Covenants are not created equal; we do not forecast any breaches, and if it gets close, we expect leniency from the banksLevel of debt likely a key driver of performance over next 18 months — OCA and RYM best positionedIn theory an inflationary environment should be good news for aged care stocks

Aged Care Sector: Tide Is Going Out; Debt Coming to the Surface

<ul><li>Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six months</li><li>Pricing buffers consumed by falling house prices</li><li>Low turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices</li></ul>

Our MI index remains flat: Year-on-year growth for our MI-aged care pricing index to February has fallen to only +3% and the index has been flat over the last six monthsPricing buffers consumed by falling house pricesLow turnover and elevated days to sell are no signs of a "proper" bottom in house prices

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>IPO activity appears to be picking up across the region, with deal in Japan, Hong Kong, US and Indonesia being lined up.</li>
<li>Placements as well picked up pace, despite the ongoing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s mega deal set to suck liquidity out of the system for a while. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
IPO activity appears to be picking up across the region, with deal in Japan, Hong Kong, US and Indonesia being lined up.
Placements as well picked up pace, despite the ongoing Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s mega deal set to suck liquidity out of the system for a while. 


ECM Weekly (12th Mar 2023) - Meituan, Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, JFW, Ventia, Doosan, DXN, DPC

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

Ryman Healthcare / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryman-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10590:1" rel="noopener">Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)</a> announced a US$569m (NZ$902m) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to reset the firm’s capital structure and reduce its gearing. </li>
<li>The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the shares have held up above the entitlement offer price since the deal was announced.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) announced a US$569m (NZ$902m) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to reset the firm’s capital structure and reduce its gearing. 
The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the shares have held up above the entitlement offer price since the deal was announced.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.


Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Retail Shortfall Manageable

New Zealand

Ryman Healthcare Limited provides private health care services through its development, management and operation of retirement villages, nursing homes and geriatric hospitals.  The Company's facilities are located in Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Wellington.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ)

Ryman Healthcare: Changing Its Stripes

We believe Ryman Healthcare (RYM) is changing its stripes more than the market is giving it credit for; the ~NZ$2bn of debt built up over the last...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Tide Is Going Out; Debt Coming to the Surface

The three aged care stocks with March year ends (Ryman [RYM], Arvida [ARV] and Oceania [OCA]) have tripled net debt over the last five years; As a...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index (15-March-2023)

Another tough month for the aged care stocks, down between -10% and -15%, has likely been driven to a significant degree...

Forsyth Barr

ECM Weekly (12th Mar 2023) - Meituan, Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, JFW, Ventia, Doosan, DXN, DPC

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Retail Shortfall Manageable

Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) managed a US$569m (NZ$902m) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to reset the firm’s capital structure and reduce...

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)