Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The two big surprises are the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The two big surprises are the inclusion of Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) and Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, there could be 30 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and S&amp;P/ASX 300.
The forecast adds have hugely outperformed the forecast deletes. Borrow recall on the deletes and increased borrow availability on the adds could result in underperformance following announcement of the changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

<ul>
<li>With nearly 80% of the review period complete, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.</li>
<li>There is a lot of stocks for passive trackers to trade on the index changes with the largest impacts on the potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions by a LOT over the last few months and continued positioning could lead to further gains.</li>
</ul>


With nearly 80% of the review period complete, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September.
There is a lot of stocks for passive trackers to trade on the index changes with the largest impacts on the potential changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletions by a LOT over the last few months and continued positioning could lead to further gains.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Moelis Australia Ltd

MA Moelis Australia

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Moelis Australia Ltd

We are an ASX-listed financial services firm specialising in asset management, lending, corporate advisory and equities. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Given this payment appears one-off in nature there is minimal impact to our valuation.</li><li>Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m); and (c) drop-through of incremental software sales.</li><li>Buy rating maintained, $2.04 target price (prev: $2.03). Our thesis comprises: (a) operating inflection reached, with strong organic growth outlook supported by deep up/cross-sell opportunities; (b) flagship 'asset maintenance' solution considered industry-leading within its niche; (c) ~$35m net cash B/S with buyback in place.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Given this payment appears one-off in nature there is minimal impact to our valuation.Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m); and (c) drop-through of incremental software sales.Buy rating maintained, $2.04 target price (prev: $2.03). Our thesis comprises: (a) operating inflection reached, with strong organic growth outlook supported by deep up/cross-sell opportunities; (b) flagship 'asset maintenance' solution considered industry-leading within its niche; (c) ~$35m net cash B/S with buyback in place.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

<div><ul><li>FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint, and EBITDA guidance (before management incentives) upgraded by $1m to range of $18.5m to $20.5m (prior $17.5m-$19.5m) implying 30% growth YoY.</li><li>Subscription and maintenance ARR ended 1Q24 at $56m (+$1m vs. Jun-23). 1Q24 new software TCV was $13.2m (1Q23: $5.2m).</li><li>RUL starts 2Q24 with $133m in pre- contracted &amp; non-cancellable software revenue.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint, and EBITDA guidance (before management incentives) upgraded by $1m to range of $18.5m to $20.5m (prior $17.5m-$19.5m) implying 30% growth YoY.Subscription and maintenance ARR ended 1Q24 at $56m (+$1m vs. Jun-23). 1Q24 new software TCV was $13.2m (1Q23: $5.2m).RUL starts 2Q24 with $133m in pre- contracted &amp; non-cancellable software revenue.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Limited is a technology company that provides integrated technology services (software), mining consulting and training the area of mining planning.

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RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

There could be 28 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes by a...

Brian Freitas

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m)

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint

MA Moelis Australia

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

There could be 30 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes and...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September

There could be 28 changes for the ASX indices in September with a lot to trade for passive trackers. The adds have outperformed the deletes by a...

Brian Freitas

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - FY24 Guidance Upgrade

Across FY24e, we assume EBITDA growth of ~$8.7m is driven by (a) the aforementioned one-off payment (+$3m); (b) strong advisory demand (+$3m)

MA Moelis Australia

RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd - Advisory-Led Upgrade to FY24 Guidance

FY24 revenue guidance upgraded by $2m to range of $107m to $112m (prior $105m-$110m) implying 11% YoY growth at midpoint

MA Moelis Australia

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period Nearly Done; Big Impact Changes

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes from Now to September