Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

Following the hawkish surprise at the last meeting, the Chilean central bank is likely to raise the pace of tightening even further at the MPC meeting tomorrow. Inflation has been rising steadily as the recovery picked up strongly on the back of the strong fiscal and monetary stimulus. More worrisome for the central bank is that long-term inflation expectations have deteriorated. The currency depreciation meanwhile has picked up pace as political uncertainty has risen, adding to inflationary risks. The central bank is thus likely to raise rates very aggressively to anchor inflation expectations and the currency in our view and is possibly evaluating a currency intervention program. Our bullish recommendations on the currency have taken a hit lately.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

Following the hawkish surprise at the last meeting, the Chilean central bank is likely to raise the pace of tightening even further at the MPC meeting tomorrow. Inflation has been rising steadily as the recovery picked up strongly on the back of the strong fiscal and monetary stimulus. More worrisome for the central bank is that long-term inflation expectations have deteriorated. The currency depreciation meanwhile has picked up pace as political uncertainty has risen, adding to inflationary risks. The central bank is thus likely to raise rates very aggressively to anchor inflation expectations and the currency in our view and is possibly evaluating a currency intervention program. Our bullish recommendations on the currency have taken a hit lately.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Chilean Central Bank Is Set to Deliver Another Hawkish Surprise

With the US dollar appreciating on rising risk aversion, it is important to see which EM currencies are more vulnerable and which are less if the dollar strengthening continues. To do so, we look at the systematic risk or beta of each EM currency and how it has evolved. We find that the beta has increased for Central European currencies and Asian currencies with the exception of the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee. It has also increased for the Turkish lira but has dropped for the Mexican peso and the Russian ruble, providing us with a template of which currencies to go long or short.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the US dollar appreciating on rising risk aversion, it is important to see which EM currencies are more vulnerable and which are less if the dollar strengthening continues. To do so, we look at the systematic risk or beta of each EM currency and how it has evolved. We find that the beta has increased for Central European currencies and Asian currencies with the exception of the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee. It has also increased for the Turkish lira but has dropped for the Mexican peso and the Russian ruble, providing us with a template of which currencies to go long or short.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: How Have the Sensitivities of EM FX to US Dollar Evolved?

With the dollar strengthening this month, EM currencies have suffered, which is reminiscent of a similar episode in Q1. However, there is greater differentiation this time around, both on a regional basis as well as at the country level. We go over the outliers to identify the reasons they did not react entirely based on their respective betas. If there is no explanation for the deviation, then the idiosyncratic behavior is likely not justified and may represent a trading opportunity.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the dollar strengthening this month, EM currencies have suffered, which is reminiscent of a similar episode in Q1. However, there is greater differentiation this time around, both on a regional basis as well as at the country level. We go over the outliers to identify the reasons they did not react entirely based on their respective betas. If there is no explanation for the deviation, then the idiosyncratic behavior is likely not justified and may represent a trading opportunity.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Winners and Losers in EM FX Amidst Dollar Strengthening

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Olivier Desbarres

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4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

US macro data, including measures of US inflation, non-farm employment, retail sales, manufacturing output, ISM PMIs and consumer confidence indices, have been far less volatile since the peak in global risk aversion in March-April 2020 when the first national lockdowns decimated global growth. However, volatility in most of these monthly metrics remains high relative to history. This is particularly true for core CPI-inflation, non-farm employment, consumer confidence and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Yet volatility and directionality in US Treasury yields, including at the short-end of the curve, and in particular the Dollar has been modest in recent months. The Dollar NEER has oscillated in a range of just 1.7% for the past 11 weeks and within that range daily volatility has been very low. Moreover daily volatility in most major currencies has fallen further in the past month, with only a few notable exceptions. Volatility in the S&amp;P 500 has recently picked up but remains broadly in line with the past 12 months and has arguably been spurred by the Evergrande saga rather than by US (or global) macro data releases. Finally volatility and directionality in Brent crude oil prices have also been far more limited in recent weeks.That is of course not to say that US macro data have not mattered and will not matter going forward. They have and they will. At the very least macro data are a key input into Federal Reserve monetary policy which in turn has a strong bearing on US and global financial markets, as evidenced by markets’ reactions to the Fed’s 16th June policy. However, our analysis suggests that financial markets have become somewhat more detached from US macro data releases, even when these have materially deviated from consensus forecasts. At the very least their direct impact on US equity and interest rate markets and global FX and commodity markets has been modest in recent months.

US macro data, including measures of US inflation, non-farm employment, retail sales, manufacturing output, ISM PMIs and consumer confidence indices, have been far less volatile since the peak in global risk aversion in March-April 2020 when the first national lockdowns decimated global growth. However, volatility in most of these monthly metrics remains high relative to history. This is particularly true for core CPI-inflation, non-farm employment, consumer confidence and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Yet volatility and directionality in US Treasury yields, including at the short-end of the curve, and in particular the Dollar has been modest in recent months. The Dollar NEER has oscillated in a range of just 1.7% for the past 11 weeks and within that range daily volatility has been very low. Moreover daily volatility in most major currencies has fallen further in the past month, with only a few notable exceptions. Volatility in the S&amp;P 500 has recently picked up but remains broadly in line with the past 12 months and has arguably been spurred by the Evergrande saga rather than by US (or global) macro data releases. Finally volatility and directionality in Brent crude oil prices have also been far more limited in recent weeks.That is of course not to say that US macro data have not mattered and will not matter going forward. They have and they will. At the very least macro data are a key input into Federal Reserve monetary policy which in turn has a strong bearing on US and global financial markets, as evidenced by markets’ reactions to the Fed’s 16th June policy. However, our analysis suggests that financial markets have become somewhat more detached from US macro data releases, even when these have materially deviated from consensus forecasts. At the very least their direct impact on US equity and interest rate markets and global FX and commodity markets has been modest in recent months.

Macro Data Dog Not Wagging FX Market Tail

With the US dollar and EM currencies on aggregate trading in a range for much of the year, their volatilities have dropped to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Since a drop in volatility engenders a carry-trade environment, we test this hypothesis on EM currencies and conclude that indeed currencies with high risk-adjusted carry have been outperforming, and vice versa. A currency that we continue to like from the perspective of improving carry is the Chilean peso.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the US dollar and EM currencies on aggregate trading in a range for much of the year, their volatilities have dropped to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Since a drop in volatility engenders a carry-trade environment, we test this hypothesis on EM currencies and conclude that indeed currencies with high risk-adjusted carry have been outperforming, and vice versa. A currency that we continue to like from the perspective of improving carry is the Chilean peso.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Are EM Currencies in a Carry-Trade Environment?

Russia

The Russian ruble is the official currency of The Russian Federation. 

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FX Dashboard: Chilean Central Bank Is Set to Deliver Another Hawkish Surprise

Following the substantial deterioration of long-term inflation expectations along with the sharp currency depreciation, we expect the central bank...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: How Have the Sensitivities of EM FX to US Dollar Evolved?

We look at the systematic risk or beta of each EM currency to the US dollar and how it has evolved to identify currencies that are more or less...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Winners and Losers in EM FX Amidst Dollar Strengthening

In the latest bout of dollar strengthening, we go over the outperformers and underperformers among EM currencies to identify potential trading...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Macro Data Dog Not Wagging FX Market Tail

US Dollar, Treasury yields, US equities and even crude oil price detached from still volatile US macro data (inc inflation, payrolls and consumer...

Olivier Desbarres

FX Dashboard: Are EM Currencies in a Carry-Trade Environment?

As the volatilities of the US dollar and EM currencies have dropped, we test the hypothesis and conclude that EM FX is in a carry-trade...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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