Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.</li>
<li>There are some doubts over the fate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a>'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. </li>
<li>Don't punt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.</li>
</ul>



NTT (9432 JP) will likely buy back more shares than previously expected as the government sells shares down. Buy dips vs peers KDDI and Softbank Corp. This is a long-term tilt.
There are some doubts over the fate of Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)'s SET50 membership, at present, but it should escape deletion in December 2023. 
Don't punt Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) on the off-chance of a change of control in the wake pf the Forrest split. If anything, there might be a leakage of shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The simplified tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rothschild-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21537:1" rel="noopener">Rothschild &amp; Co (ROTH FP)</a> opened on 24 July and will last until 8 September (inclusive). The ex-dividend offer price is €38.60.</li>
<li>The offer represents 7.22x NTM Fwd P/E (ex-dividend), rather low for the top European M&amp;A player and a high quality business. Merchant Banking division could have a lot of upside.</li>
<li>The enlarged family concert has bought shares in the market and has now c.66%. I anticipate the offer to go according to plan. Gross spread is nil.</li>
</ul>


The simplified tender offer for Rothschild &amp; Co (ROTH FP) opened on 24 July and will last until 8 September (inclusive). The ex-dividend offer price is €38.60.
The offer represents 7.22x NTM Fwd P/E (ex-dividend), rather low for the top European M&amp;A player and a high quality business. Merchant Banking division could have a lot of upside.
The enlarged family concert has bought shares in the market and has now c.66%. I anticipate the offer to go according to plan. Gross spread is nil.


Concordia/Rothschild: Start of Offer Period

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.</li>
<li>Given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">CR Power (836 HK)</a>'s clean energy unit's profitably, a listing should be a significant event, attracting a wide audience, and probably a premium to other listed green energy plays.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chindata-group-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29274:1" rel="noopener">Chindata Group (CD US)</a> is unquestionably cheap. But Bain's indicative Offer is not the answer to long-suffering shareholders.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s Board has a Revised Opinion. It has recommended the Offer for reasons which smack of resignation rather than appropriate deliberation. Investors beware.
Given CR Power (836 HK)'s clean energy unit's profitably, a listing should be a significant event, attracting a wide audience, and probably a premium to other listed green energy plays.

Chindata Group (CD US) is unquestionably cheap. But Bain's indicative Offer is not the answer to long-suffering shareholders.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, China Resources Power, Chindata, Tian An China

<ul>
<li>Concordia has filed the draft offer memorandum and started acquiring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rothschild-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21537:1" rel="noopener">Rothschild &amp; Co (ROTH FP)</a> shares in the market (limit c.8.2 million) to ensure success. All regulatory approvals have been obtained.</li>
<li>The adjusted offer price is €46.6/share, or €38.6/share (ex-extraordinary distribution, 7.6x NTM Fwd P/E, rather cheap, in my view), which will enable the concert to partly finance the offer. </li>
<li>For comparison, Greenhill is being taken at 18.5x Fwd P/E. Nevertheless, I believe the offer will be accepted. Spread is 0.75%/2.78% (gross/annualised).</li>
</ul>


Concordia has filed the draft offer memorandum and started acquiring Rothschild &amp; Co (ROTH FP) shares in the market (limit c.8.2 million) to ensure success. All regulatory approvals have been obtained.
The adjusted offer price is €46.6/share, or €38.6/share (ex-extraordinary distribution, 7.6x NTM Fwd P/E, rather cheap, in my view), which will enable the concert to partly finance the offer. 
For comparison, Greenhill is being taken at 18.5x Fwd P/E. Nevertheless, I believe the offer will be accepted. Spread is 0.75%/2.78% (gross/annualised).


Concordia/Rothschild: Simplified Offer Filing

<ul>
<li>Concordia (38.9% stake) points out that none of Rothschild's businesses require a high amount of capital thus a listing brings more troubles than advantages (the enlarged family concert owns 54.5%).</li>
<li>Lo and behold, a possible €48/share cash offer, partly financed with Rothschild's cash holdings (via dividend and extraordinary dividend) is the solution, arguably cheap for a high-quality firm.</li>
<li>My conservative Fwd P/E-based SOTP valuation is €53.9/share. There's some margin to improve the offer. Spread is 2.3%/5.6% (gross/annualised). I would be long the shares.</li>
</ul>


Concordia (38.9% stake) points out that none of Rothschild's businesses require a high amount of capital thus a listing brings more troubles than advantages (the enlarged family concert owns 54.5%).
Lo and behold, a possible €48/share cash offer, partly financed with Rothschild's cash holdings (via dividend and extraordinary dividend) is the solution, arguably cheap for a high-quality firm.
My conservative Fwd P/E-based SOTP valuation is €53.9/share. There's some margin to improve the offer. Spread is 2.3%/5.6% (gross/annualised). I would be long the shares.


Concordia/Rothschild & Co: Back to the Origins

France

Rothschild & Co provides global financial advisory (mergers & acquisitions and financing advisory), wealth management, asset management for third parties, merchant banking, as well as some credit and specialized financial services activities.

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Rothschild & Co (ROTH FP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Delta Electronics, Fortescue Metals, Nomura Real Estate

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Concordia/Rothschild: Start of Offer Period

The offer period will run until 8 September. Although the offer price seems low for a high-quality business, I believe the offer will go according...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, China Resources Power, Chindata, Tian An China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Concordia/Rothschild: Simplified Offer Filing

On 8 June (within the target), Concordia filed the draft simplified tender offer memorandum with the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). All the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Concordia/Rothschild & Co: Back to the Origins

Concordia, the holding company of the Rothschild family (38.9% stake in Rothschild & Co, plans to file a simplified tender offer at €48/share (cum...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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