Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.</li>
<li>One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).</li>
<li>Friday's move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here. </li>
</ul>


With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.
One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).
Friday's move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger - Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.</li>
<li>Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-march-2023-review-olc-jal-renesas-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97041" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.</a> </li>
<li>That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).</li>
<li>Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rohm is increasingly an automotive semiconductor maker. Its business should hold up reasonably well in the downturn and grow significantly in the long term.</li>
<li>Capital spending risks excess capacity in the coming year, but sets the stage for long term growth. Possible investment in Toshiba a positive. </li>
<li>Weak quarters ahead. Buy on weakness for the long term. </li>
</ul>


Rohm is increasingly an automotive semiconductor maker. Its business should hold up reasonably well in the downturn and grow significantly in the long term.
Capital spending risks excess capacity in the coming year, but sets the stage for long term growth. Possible investment in Toshiba a positive. 
Weak quarters ahead. Buy on weakness for the long term. 


Rohm (6963 JP): Gearing Up in the Downturn

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japanese-consortium-makes-final-offer-on-Toshiba-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>’s Board.</li>
<li>Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).</li>
<li>The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)’s Board.
Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).
The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

SHINKO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets advanced electronic materials, such as semiconductor packages, including leadframes, and PLP(Plastics Laminated Packages).  The Company markets its products worldwide through a network of sales offices in such places as the Philippines, Germany, and Hong Kong.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

RORZE CORPORATION manufactures printed circuit board conveyers and wafer handlers for semiconductor manufacturing.  The Company also produces sorters and vacuum chamber robots, as well as controllers and stepping motor drivers used in various automation systems.  Rorze provides parts replacement and repair services for its products.

TOKYO SEIMITSU CO., LTD. manufactures and sells semiconductor manufacturing equipment and measuring instruments.  The Company produces wafer probing machines, wafer dicing machines, electron beam lithography systems, wafer inspection systems, and chemical mechanical planarizers (CMP) systems.

ULVAC, Inc. manufactures vacuum devices for industries such as semiconductor, electronics, chemical, pharmaceutical and food.  The Company's products include pumps, valves, gas analyzers, leak detectors, and surface profile measurement.

MICRONICS JAPAN CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets probe cards, which are used to inspect semiconductors and integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company also makes wafer probers, probe card testers, IC handlers, and inspection devices used for liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing.

Mitsui High-tec, Inc. produces integrated circuit leadframes, assembly parts, and related equipment.  The Company also manufactures and sells precision machine tools, such as metal molds for presses and machine tools. Mitsui High-tec also operates a real estate business.

TOWA CORPORATION produces semiconductor manufacturing equipment including mold packaging, IC inspection units, precision molds and dies, and plastic molds. The Company also provides technical consultation.

Japan Material Co., Ltd. mainly provides gas management system services for semiconductor and liquid-crystal factories.  The Company also develops and makes application software products for CAD/CAM and three-dimensional data processing.

Flat Glass Group Co., Ltd is a PV glass manufacturer. The Company also markets float glass, household glass and architectural glass.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Diodes Incorporated manufactures and supplies discrete, logic, and analog semiconductor devices to consumers in the electronics, computing, industrial, communications, and automotive markets. The Company's products include diodes, transistors, MOSFETs, single gate logic, LED drivers, and USB switches.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

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ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger - Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review is changing shape. Toshiba deal is announced, which pushes two of three ADDs outside the top 75 - sector balance...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

There could be 3 changes to the NKY in Sep. Lasertec, ZOZO, Nitori could replace MatsuiSec, MitsuiE&S, NipponSheetGlass. There are other stocks...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

The March 225 Rebalance is out so the Sep 2023 Review is fair game. I see three ADDs (Lasertec, Toshiba, and Nitori) and three DELETEs (Mitsui E&S,...

Travis Lundy

Rohm (6963 JP): Gearing Up in the Downturn

Rohm has become an automotive semiconductor company geared to electric vehicles. Results through Dec-22 were good, but with signs of a slowdown....

Scott Foster

Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to...

Arun George

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