IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has launched an IPO to raise up to US$368 million.  </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117721" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-latest-updates-as-the-ipo-process-restarts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:136469" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts</a>. </li>
<li>The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO. </li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has launched an IPO to raise up to US$368 million.  
We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case and ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts. 
The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO. 


Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.</li>
<li>New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA</li>
<li>Updated JD.com general status from last week's China/Japan Note encouraging.</li>
</ul>


Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
Updated JD.com general status from last week's China/Japan Note encouraging.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.</li>
<li>The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.</li>
<li>More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.
The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.
More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.


Vinfast (VFS US) - Some Respite from the US

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. </li>
<li>The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.</li>
<li>Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. 
The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.
Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.


Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
In ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.


United States

Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive technology company. The Company designs and manufactures vans, trucks, and sports utility vehicles, as well as offers software solutions, IT, repair, and maintenance services. Rivian Automotive serves customers in North America and the United Kingdom.

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Rivian Automotive (RIVN US)

ZEEKR (ZK US) IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers' multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO.

Arun George

International Automobile Analysis

China markets showing excellent resilience and could be a good sign for the global economy. Automobile plays that may benefit.

Douglas Busch

Vinfast (VFS US) - Some Respite from the US

More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst...

Angus Mackintosh

Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

Vinfast is big on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 below expectations, and the majority being to related companies. There are...

Angus Mackintosh

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

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