European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos <strong>didn't show a clear trend during March</strong>. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). </li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't show a clear trend during March. Discounts: C.F.Alba, 14.9% as of 31 March (vs 14.1% as of 28 February); GBL, 37.6% (vs. 38.7%);
Heineken Holding, 11.2% (vs. 13%); Industrivärden C, 2.9% (vs. 5.1%); Investor B, 4.2% (vs. 2.3%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.9% (vs. 38.1%); Rio DLC 21.7% (vs. 17%). Vivendi 40.1% (vs. 38.7%). 
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);
Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

<ul>
<li>The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.</li>
<li>Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.</li>
</ul>


The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.


Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 45.3% (vs. 44.5% as of end of June); </li>
<li>GBL, 42.2% (vs. 43.6%); Heineken Holding, 16% (vs. 18.4%); Industrivärden C, 2.2% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 7.5% (vs. 9.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 34.6% (vs. 35.8%), Porsche SE reports 13 August. </li>
<li>Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.1% (vs. 20.7%). What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 45.3% (vs. 44.5% as of end of June); 
GBL, 42.2% (vs. 43.6%); Heineken Holding, 16% (vs. 18.4%); Industrivärden C, 2.2% (vs. 2.4%); Investor B, 7.5% (vs. 9.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 34.6% (vs. 35.8%), Porsche SE reports 13 August. 
Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.1% (vs. 20.7%). What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

United Kingdom

Rio Tinto plc is an international mining company. The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO AU.

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Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2025 Report, Adding Vivendi

​March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Digging Deeper: The Vote Failed, But the Value in Rio Tinto’s Dual Listing Remains Untapped

Rio Tinto’s dual listing trades at a 23% gap—structurally unjustified and politically fragile. Long plc / short Ltd offers asymmetric, catalyst...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July-Aug. 9 '24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos generally tightened during July and first week of August. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

March discounts to NAV of covered holdcos showed no clear trend. Interesting points include Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN...