Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside resistance, the EM vs. EAFE ratio is bullishly inflecting, and the US dollar (DXY) exhibits signs of breaking down. Russia (RTS), Taiwan (TAIEX), and Brazil (Bovespa) are deserving of overweights in the EM realm, though China (MSCI China) appears to be bottoming as well -- add exposure. EM Sectors: Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leadership -- overweight. Communications is the next most attractive EM Sector thanks largely to improvement in Tencent (700-HK) -- add exposure. Lastly, Materials exhibits early signs of potential price and RS bottoms -- add selective exposure

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Special Situations, Content Strategist, Smartkarma

Crispin Francis

Special Situations, Content Strategist

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

Official Announcement:Taiwan, Hsinchu &ndash; September 7, 2015 &ndash; MediaTek Inc. (TSE: 2454) announced its Board of Directors had approved a Letter of Intent (&ldquo;LOI&rdquo;) with Richtek Technology Corporation (TSE: 6286; hereinafter &ldquo;Richtek&rdquo;) today. Per the LOI, MediaTek and/or its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively and individually, hereinafter, &ldquo;MediaTek&rdquo;) shall launch a tender offer for Richtek common stock.This offer has two-stages:Stage 1 - Partial Tender offer at TWD 195/share for 51% of shares outstanding with 35% minimum acceptance condition.&nbsp;If Stage one goes through;Stage 2 - Tender Offer or Scheme for remaining shares outstanding at TWD 195/share.

Official Announcement:Taiwan, Hsinchu &ndash; September 7, 2015 &ndash; MediaTek Inc. (TSE: 2454) announced its Board of Directors had approved a Letter of Intent (&ldquo;LOI&rdquo;) with Richtek Technology Corporation (TSE: 6286; hereinafter &ldquo;Richtek&rdquo;) today. Per the LOI, MediaTek and/or its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively and individually, hereinafter, &ldquo;MediaTek&rdquo;) shall launch a tender offer for Richtek common stock.This offer has two-stages:Stage 1 - Partial Tender offer at TWD 195/share for 51% of shares outstanding with 35% minimum acceptance condition.&nbsp;If Stage one goes through;Stage 2 - Tender Offer or Scheme for remaining shares outstanding at TWD 195/share.

Taiwan

RichTek Technology Corp. designs, tests, manufactures, and markets analog ICs (integrated circuits).  The Company's products include power conversion ICs, power management ICs, power protection ICs, drivers, and amplifiers.

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Richtek Technology (6286 TT)

Shift Exposure From EAFE to EM

We are recommending a shift from developed international markets (EAFE) to emerging market equities, as the MSCI EM index is breaking topside...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

Two-Stage Taiwanese Deal

Official Announcement:Taiwan, Hsinchu – September 7, 2015 – MediaTek Inc. (TSE: 2454) announced its Board of Directors had approved a Letter of...

Crispin Francis

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