Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace Inc, Intuitive Surgical</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace Inc, Intuitive Surgical


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace, Intuitive Surgical

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&amp;P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell 2000 (1,448), ushering-in additional downside. We view these levels as logical areas of potential short-term resistance moving forward.   In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Services: Pharmaceuticals, Mega- &amp; Large-Cap , Biotech , Diagnostic &amp; Test Products, Diagnostic &amp; Test Services, and Education Svcs., China

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&amp;P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell 2000 (1,448), ushering-in additional downside. We view these levels as logical areas of potential short-term resistance moving forward.   In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Services: Pharmaceuticals, Mega- &amp; Large-Cap , Biotech , Diagnostic &amp; Test Products, Diagnostic &amp; Test Services, and Education Svcs., China

United States

Repligen Corporation is a bioprocessing company focused on the development, production, and commercialization of innovative products used in the process of manufacturing biologic drugs. The Company's customers include life sciences companies, global biopharmaceutical companies, and contract manufacturers worldwide.

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Repligen Corp (RGEN US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace, Intuitive Surgical

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: Repligen, Snap, Dynatrace, Intuitive Surgical

Eric Fernandez, CFA

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: Long-Term Oversold

Major indexes broke below the key support levels we were watching on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,855), DJI (24,681) and Russell...

Vermilion Research

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