Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024</li>
<li>This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023</li>
<li>Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.</li>
</ul>


The current semiconductor market meltdown can be expected to continue through the end of 2024
This will reduce 2022 market growth to 5%, and will drive a decline of 19% in 2023
Stocks will be unevenly influenced by this, with the most dramatic declines hitting makers of volume commodities, smaller declines in differentiated products, and a weak impact on older technology products.


2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast
</li>
<li>OVERSEAS: Holidays last week - low liquidity, stocks+bonds higher, USD lower; This week: deluge of data with Employment key; MSFT-Activision deal in doubt; Apple production headwinds; China COVID unrest spreads </li>
<li>JAPAN: SHOCK !  Samurai Blues lost 0-1 to Costa Rica - A nation in pain;   Kishida support continues to wane; EPCO collusion fines;  Earnings pressure ahead for Shippers.</li>
</ul>


Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast

OVERSEAS: Holidays last week - low liquidity, stocks+bonds higher, USD lower; This week: deluge of data with Employment key; MSFT-Activision deal in doubt; Apple production headwinds; China COVID unrest spreads 
JAPAN: SHOCK !  Samurai Blues lost 0-1 to Costa Rica - A nation in pain;   Kishida support continues to wane; EPCO collusion fines;  Earnings pressure ahead for Shippers.


<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan.  FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
</li>
<li>
OVERSEAS: US Thanksgiving holidays;  US out but rally continues: STOXX Europe 600  +0.46%;  US Equity Futs +0.26%;  China Covid #s hit record high ; Rare China covid protest; Twitter Amnesty </li>
<li>
JAPAN: NISA 2x expansion to ¥56trn targeted;  START UPS: Govt tgts 100k start-ups/ ¥10trn investments; EV: Aisin Seiki expanding E-Axle production; NINTENDO: Pokemon hits 10m sales</li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan.  FOLLOW US to keep abreast!


OVERSEAS: US Thanksgiving holidays;  US out but rally continues: STOXX Europe 600  +0.46%;  US Equity Futs +0.26%;  China Covid #s hit record high ; Rare China covid protest; Twitter Amnesty 

JAPAN: NISA 2x expansion to ¥56trn targeted;  START UPS: Govt tgts 100k start-ups/ ¥10trn investments; EV: Aisin Seiki expanding E-Axle production; NINTENDO: Pokemon hits 10m sales


Good Morning Japan | US Thanksgiving but Rally Continues in Europe

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With just over two months left in the review period, we expect three changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>As with the last rebalance, there will be a large funding trade estimated at JPY 417bn. There are many stocks with over 0.5x ADV to sell.</li>
</ul>


With just over two months left in the review period, we expect three changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Lasertec Corp (6920 JP), Oriental Land (4661 JP) and Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) could replace Toyobo Co Ltd (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) and Toho Zinc (5707 JP).
As with the last rebalance, there will be a large funding trade estimated at JPY 417bn. There are many stocks with over 0.5x ADV to sell.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Three Potential Changes & Large Funding Trade

<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast. 
</li>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX rallies on signs of FED hike pace slowing; Strong US retail earnings lift sentiment; China locks downs  AGAIN- Long road ahead; HP cuts 10% of workforce-PC weakness</li>
<li>WCup: Japan 2-Germany 1 ! BANZAI!  NKY Catch time.. +2% day?; Mazda splashes out ¥1.5b EVs; Toyota Dec prod plans weak; -ve Chugai's Hemlilbra on imminent approval of competing product </li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast. 

OVERSEAS: SPX rallies on signs of FED hike pace slowing; Strong US retail earnings lift sentiment; China locks downs  AGAIN- Long road ahead; HP cuts 10% of workforce-PC weakness
WCup: Japan 2-Germany 1 ! BANZAI!  NKY Catch time.. +2% day?; Mazda splashes out ¥1.5b EVs; Toyota Dec prod plans weak; -ve Chugai's Hemlilbra on imminent approval of competing product 


Good Morning Japan | Dovish Fed+ Strong US Earnings = Catch up Time Japan

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

2023 High Conviction: Semiconductor Down Market

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Jim Handy

Good Morning Japan | Samurai Blues

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | US Thanksgiving but Rally Continues in Europe

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (March): Three Potential Changes & Large Funding Trade

There should be 3 changes to the NKY in March. The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and there will be large pre-positions on...

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan | Dovish Fed+ Strong US Earnings = Catch up Time Japan

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

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