Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the stock price ahead of Q3 earnings</li>
<li>We expect the company to surprise the market given stronger volumes and pricing trends</li>
<li>If Toyota is having problems securing a stable supply of chips, we believe that industry inventories are much leaner than most believe</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the stock price ahead of Q3 earnings
We expect the company to surprise the market given stronger volumes and pricing trends
If Toyota is having problems securing a stable supply of chips, we believe that industry inventories are much leaner than most believe


Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Acquisition of Steradian Semiconductors complements Renesas' partnership with Tata Group and expands its presence in India. </li>
<li>Follows purchase of Reality Analytics of the U.S. and Celeno Communications of Israel. Global footprint growing, technological sophistication rising to meet ADAS, AI and IIoT requirements.</li>
<li>P/E below 10x on current guidance, but vulnerable to semiconductor down-cycle. Accumulate for long-term potential.</li>
</ul>


Acquisition of Steradian Semiconductors complements Renesas' partnership with Tata Group and expands its presence in India. 
Follows purchase of Reality Analytics of the U.S. and Celeno Communications of Israel. Global footprint growing, technological sophistication rising to meet ADAS, AI and IIoT requirements.
P/E below 10x on current guidance, but vulnerable to semiconductor down-cycle. Accumulate for long-term potential.


Renesas (6723 JP): Steradian Acquisition Supports Alliance with Tata

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.</li>
<li>Affiliate and former subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.</li>
<li>Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.
Affiliate and former subsidiary Kioxia (6600 JP) announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.
Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. 


<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Renesas (6723) | Bullish Toyota Troubles

If Toyota is having problems securing a stable supply of chips, we believe that industry inventories are much leaner than most believe. We stay...

Mark Chadwick

Renesas (6723 JP): Steradian Acquisition Supports Alliance with Tata

Purchase of Steradian complements alliance with Tata in India. Third acquisition in a year to meet global ADAS, AI and IIoT opportunity. Exposed to...

Scott Foster

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

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