Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

In our previous coverage on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/religare-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14799:1" rel="noopener">Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/religare-enterprises-sustained-red-flags" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53530" rel="noopener">Religare Enterprises: Sustained Red Flags</a> , we highlighted the red herrings that had tainted the group's image and valuation as a whole. In the two years i.e. F17-19, REL has witnessed a bunch of malpractices and poor asset quality, which led to a demise in the value of stock. The distressed state of affairs had almost corrupted its NBFC arm, as RBI had placed a cap on the operations. The NBFC business was also tarnished by its auditors in the last few years, having constantly been on the receiving end of qualified opinions, several of them being repeated year on year. 
However, with the exit of 'recognisable promoters' and the entrance of the 'new management', REL has stepped up to clean itself, undergoing several measures to reinforce the confidence. Since most of the damage relating to the lending business is been done, and that other segments are doing better than ever including insurance IPO which just might be the savior, REL is set for a turnaround when one looks at the overall scheme of things.

In our previous coverage on Religare Enterprises (RELG IN) in Religare Enterprises: Sustained Red Flags , we highlighted the red herrings that had tainted the group's image and valuation as a whole. In the two years i.e. F17-19, REL has witnessed a bunch of malpractices and poor asset quality, which led to a demise in the value of stock. The distressed state of affairs had almost corrupted its NBFC arm, as RBI had placed a cap on the operations. The NBFC business was also tarnished by its auditors in the last few years, having constantly been on the receiving end of qualified opinions, several of them being repeated year on year. 
However, with the exit of 'recognisable promoters' and the entrance of the 'new management', REL has stepped up to clean itself, undergoing several measures to reinforce the confidence. Since most of the damage relating to the lending business is been done, and that other segments are doing better than ever including insurance IPO which just might be the savior, REL is set for a turnaround when one looks at the overall scheme of things.

Religare Enterprises: Will Fortunes Change?

Forensic Accounting

Religare Enterprises / Forensic Accounting

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/religare-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14799:1" rel="noopener">Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)</a> is a conglomerate which provides all sort of financial services such as investments, broking, lending, insurance etc. The subsidiaries over the years may have contributed heavily to the topline (Consolidated total income amounted to INR 25.3 bn vis a vis standalone income of INR 1.2 bn in F21), but along with large contribution, these subsidiaries have also brought in some shady red herrings that tarnish the balance sheet and governance.The results for year ended F21 have stated several auditor red flags, both quantitative and qualitative in nature. Whats worrying is that these red flags have been persistent since few years, and they are heading nowhere.

Religare Enterprises (RELG IN) is a conglomerate which provides all sort of financial services such as investments, broking, lending, insurance etc. The subsidiaries over the years may have contributed heavily to the topline (Consolidated total income amounted to INR 25.3 bn vis a vis standalone income of INR 1.2 bn in F21), but along with large contribution, these subsidiaries have also brought in some shady red herrings that tarnish the balance sheet and governance.The results for year ended F21 have stated several auditor red flags, both quantitative and qualitative in nature. Whats worrying is that these red flags have been persistent since few years, and they are heading nowhere. 

Religare Enterprises: Sustained Red Flags

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/174/original/daniel%201.png?1488984550" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22174"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: CEIC</div>What may be more of a surprise is that…

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)Source: CEICWhat may be more of a surprise is that…

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

India

Religare Enterprises Limited is a holding company for one of India's diversified financial services groups. The Company offers an integrated suite of financial services through its underlying subsidiaries and operating entities, including loans to SMEs, capital markets, wealth management, life and health insurance, and asset management.

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Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)

Religare Enterprises: Will Fortunes Change?

REL was traumatized by the red flags of its NBFC arm, but if one looks at the overall scheme of things, the parent entity faces no more risk. REL's...

Nitin Mangal

Religare Enterprises: Sustained Red Flags

F21 results have stated several auditor red flags, both quantitative and qualitative in nature. Whats worrying is that these red flags have been...

Nitin Mangal

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December...

Daniel Tabbush

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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Market Cap (USDm)

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