Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;</li><li>Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.</li><li>The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.</li></ul>

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s exports to China&nbsp;are undergoing a revolution thanks to inexorable&nbsp;rise of China's middle class.&nbsp;&nbsp;At a time when BHP dropped to a decade low, the news-flow in Australia focussed on &nbsp;the growing shortage on supermarket shelves of Bellamy&rsquo;s baby formula, while overseas arrivals from China continue to surge.&nbsp;Chinese demand for&nbsp;Australia's agri-food products, vitamins, wine, tourism, higher education and other non-commodity goods and&nbsp;services&nbsp;will continue to grow strongly and help diversify our export basket.&nbsp; In an environment where the aggregate supply of growth in Australia is low, the rise of China's middle class is a powerful and seductive investment theme that offers strong growth prospects to Australia's non-commodity exporters.The key macro announcement in Australia in the past week was the stronger than expected employment print for the month of October.&nbsp; Expectations of a December rate cut have consequently diminished.&nbsp; Evidente has been of the view that given the spare capacity in the economy and labour market, the RBA should deliver more monetary stimulus.&nbsp; One strong monthly employment outcome is not sufficient to alter my view that labour market conditions are slack and that another rate cut is necessary.

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

<ul><li>This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;</li><li>I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;</li><li>I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.</li></ul>

This post provides an update of Evidente&rsquo;s currency model.&nbsp; Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also points to deep A$/US$ under-valuation.&nbsp; ASX listed US$ earners have performed poorly despite the renewed deprecation of the A$ over the past six months.&nbsp;I also assess the investment case against Brambles, which generates around half of its revenue in North America.&nbsp; The company will be undergoing a capex hump at a time when its marginal return on capital has been deteriorating to the point of recently turning negative.&nbsp;I examine its remuneration scheme and conclude that the fact that the board, ESG advisory firms and institutional investors endorse complex and opaque Long Term Incentive plans of this kind, suggests that the bloated corporate governance industry has a long way to go to achieving adequate alignment of interests between senior executives and shareholders.

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

United States

Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited produces plumbing products. The Company offers plumbing fittings, water control valves, meters, boosters, couplings, and pipes. Reliance Worldwide markets its products worldwide.

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Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)

Weekly Impressions - Australia's Export Revolution to China's Rising Middle Class

A number of developments in the past week were a stark reminder that Australia’s exports to China are undergoing a revolution thanks to...

Sam Ferraro

A$ buy signal strengthens | Investment case against Brambles

This post provides an update of Evidente’s currency model. Under-valuation of the A$/US$ has now reached an extreme, while the Big Mac index also...

Sam Ferraro

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