Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming from senior PMs at large funds which I think add value, and which I therefore reproduce below. The two commentaries are tremendous, and I am grateful for their in-depth contributions. … “CDT View” added briefly to clarify my view if needed.*** Response #1 ***Thanks for the piece…  A few responses:-- Know yourself.  Know your style, know your risk…

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming from senior PMs at large funds which I think add value, and which I therefore reproduce below. The two commentaries are tremendous, and I am grateful for their in-depth contributions. … “CDT View” added briefly to clarify my view if needed.*** Response #1 ***Thanks for the piece…  A few responses:-- Know yourself.  Know your style, know your risk…

PM Views & Responses on Portfolio Construction

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

After years of speculation, Jio's launch date has arrived. At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/198" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1">Reliance Industries' (RIL IN)</a> AGM, Mukesh Ambani announced the official launch of their service on September 5th. With the exception of two wrinkles, the launch pricing is relatively close to what we anticipated with very cheap tariffs but focused on those subscribing to very high usage plans. The headlines of INR 50/GB are misleading, Jio is not selling 1GB data buckets for INR 50. Nevertheless, the headlines yesterday were alarming…

After years of speculation, Jio's launch date has arrived. At Reliance Industries' (RIL IN) AGM, Mukesh Ambani announced the official launch of their service on September 5th. With the exception of two wrinkles, the launch pricing is relatively close to what we anticipated with very cheap tariffs but focused on those subscribing to very high usage plans. The headlines of INR 50/GB are misleading, Jio is not selling 1GB data buckets for INR 50. Nevertheless, the headlines yesterday were alarming…

Jio Launches 4G in India. Will Bharti Be Hit?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by about a year, relative to our previous outlook. Fundamentals after 2017 are looking particularly bullish for prices, and an oil price rally in 2018 is looking more and more likely (we've raised our 2018 West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, forecast to $65 per barrel).Even so, the strength of U.S. shale is lurking beneath the surface: Our analysis shows that the recent uptick in rigs and falling shale decline rates together are enough to stabilize U.S. crude production within six months. Remarkably, if activity isn't scaled back, U.S. production will begin growing in 2017 (albeit barely). This underscores the strength of U.S. tight oil: Should a price rally ensue, it is far too strong to not overheat and eventually snuff out any future oil price rally. We remain bearish on oil prices longer term, and we reiterate our midcycle oil price outlook of $55 WTI ($60 Brent).Analyst: Stephen Simko, CFA

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Equity Analyst, TMT & Energy Specialist

HL Tan

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?<ul><li>
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…</li></ul>

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production freeze, in the upcoming informal OPEC meet in Algeria from 26-28 September 2016. We are skeptical on execution, deal or no deal. Nevertheless, any headline news on supply cuts could result in near term oil volatility or fund re-positioning.Who is going to cut?
Collective production quota is difficult to enforce– Despite an explicit OPEC collective…

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

India

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Indian Oil Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil, in addition to manufacturing petroleum & petroleum products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuels, greases, wax, bitumen and asphalt. Indian Oil Corporation has retail outlets throughout India. The greatest majority shareholding in the Company is held by Indian Government.

Coal India Limited produces and markets coal and coal products, as well as provides related consulting services.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and manufactures petroleum and petroleum products. The Company's products, which are sold via outlets throughout India, include lube products, lubricating oil, aviation fuel, hydraulic brake fluid, greases, liquefied petroleum gas and insecticides. The Government of India is the majority shareholder in the company.

Oil India Ltd. explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in India and internationally. The Company is also involved in the transportation of crude oil, production of liquefied petroleum gas, pipeline services, as well as various exploration and production related services.

Petronet LNG Ltd. was formed by the Government of India to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the country. The Company is a joint venture between GAIL, ONGC, IOC and BPCL. Petronet LNG has also selected GAZ de France as a strategic partner. The Company has set up LNG receiving ports in Dahej (Gujarat) and Kochi (Kerala).

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited refines oil and produces petroleum and petrochemicals. The Company is a subsidiary of ONGC. Mangalore Refinery operates a refinery in Mangalore city that produces premium diesel and unleaded petrol of high octane.

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL IN)

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited owns and operates cargo ships. The Company's fleet of vessels includes bulk carriers, tankers and offshore supply vessels. The Company also acts as an agent for a number of foreign shipping companies.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

TOTAL S.A. explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and natural gas. The Company also operates a chemical division which produces polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, rubber, paint, ink, adhesives, and resins. TOTAL operates gasoline filling stations in Europe, the United States, and Africa.

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company with operations in countries located around the world.  The Company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas.  Chevron also refines, markets, and distributes fuels as well as is involved in chemical operations, mining operations, power generation and energy services.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also manufactures and markets a variety of basic chemicals, vinyls and performance chemicals. Occidental also gathers, treats, processes, transports, stores, trades and markets crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, condensate and carbon dioxide (CO2) and generates and markets power.

Reliance Industries Ltd. manufactures petrochemicals, synthetic fibers, fiber intermediates, textiles, blended yarn and polyester staple fiber. The Company also owns a petroleum refinery cum petrochemicals complex in Jamnagar, India that produces a wide range of products such as gasoline, superior kerosene oil and liquefied petroleum gas.

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Reliance Industries (RIL IN)

PM Views & Responses on Portfolio Construction

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming...

Charles De Trenck

Jio Launches 4G in India. Will Bharti Be Hit?

After years of speculation, Jio's launch date has arrived. At Reliance Industries' (RIL IN) AGM, Mukesh Ambani announced the official launch of...

New Street Research

Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms

Crude markets have tightened a good deal in recent months, as strong demand growth and supply issues have pulled forward the industry recovery by...

Morningstar, Inc.

Oil Price - OPEC Deal or No Deal?

Brent Oil prices have rallied by more than 18% since end-July'16 close, after new Saudi oil minister tipped for an 'OPEC deal' on oil production...

HL Tan

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At...

Emad Mostaque

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