IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> IE considers Bain’s A$3.20 (A$3.08 excluding paid dividends) offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of $2.83 to A$3.21 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is subject to FIRB and possibly aged care industry approvals. The MAC clause risk, particularly around material regulatory events, is diminishing.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Estia Health (EHE AU) IE considers Bain’s A$3.20 (A$3.08 excluding paid dividends) offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of $2.83 to A$3.21 per share. 
The offer is subject to FIRB and possibly aged care industry approvals. The MAC clause risk, particularly around material regulatory events, is diminishing.
This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Scheme Meeting on 15 November

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> has entered a SID with Bain Capital at A$3.20 per share, a 49.5% premium to the undisturbed price (21 March).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. The offer is also attractive in comparison to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japara-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14760:1" rel="noopener">Japara Healthcare (JHC AU)</a> precedent transaction. </li>
<li>The MAC clause, particularly around material regulatory events, could be risky. At the last close and for an end-of-December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.7% and 9.5%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Estia Health (EHE AU) has entered a SID with Bain Capital at A$3.20 per share, a 49.5% premium to the undisturbed price (21 March).
The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. The offer is also attractive in comparison to the Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) precedent transaction. 
The MAC clause, particularly around material regulatory events, could be risky. At the last close and for an end-of-December payment, the gross and annualised spread is 3.7% and 9.5%, respectively.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.20 per share, a 6.7% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$3.00 per share.</li>
<li>The revised offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. The offer is also attractive in comparison to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japara-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14760:1" rel="noopener">Japara Healthcare (JHC AU)</a> precedent transaction.   </li>
<li>Bain has been granted exclusive due diligence. Bain’s reengagement suggests a committed bidder. Expect a binding offer. At the last close, the gross spread is 10.3%.</li>
</ul>



Estia Health (EHE AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.20 per share, a 6.7% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$3.00 per share.
The revised offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples. The offer is also attractive in comparison to the Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) precedent transaction.   
Bain has been granted exclusive due diligence. Bain’s reengagement suggests a committed bidder. Expect a binding offer. At the last close, the gross spread is 10.3%.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s Revised A$3.20 Offer

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Estia Health (EHE AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Lian Beng (LBG SP), SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Penguin International (PBS SP).


Merger Arb Mondays (22 May) - HKBN, Newcrest, InvoCare, United Malt, Golden Energy, Penguin, Shinsei

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arteria-networks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27807:1" rel="noopener">ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hailan-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39776:1" rel="noopener">Hailan Holdings (2278 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a>, Arcland Service.
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads  111 Inc (YI US), ARTERIA Networks Corp (4423 JP), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK).
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU),Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Penguin International (PBS SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU), Arcland Service.



Merger Arb Mondays (15 May) - SBI Shinsei, Arteria, Toshiba, Yitai, Hailan, Allkem, Lian Beng

Australia

Regis Healthcare Limited is a treatment program that offers Family Therapy, Clinical Psychology, Education and Occupational Therapy.

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Regis Healthcare (REG AU)

Estia Health (EHE AU): Scheme Meeting on 15 November

This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

Arun George

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s Binding Proposal

The A$3.20 offer is attractive compared to historical share prices and multiples. At the last close and for an end-of-December payment, the gross...

Arun George

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s Revised A$3.20 Offer

Bain has been granted exclusive due diligence. Bain’s reengagement suggests a committed bidder. Expect a binding offer. At the last close, the...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (22 May) - HKBN, Newcrest, InvoCare, United Malt, Golden Energy, Penguin, Shinsei

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (32.1%), Estia (16.7%), HKBN (14.3%), United Malt (12.9%), Hailan (8.7%), AAG Energy (7.6%), Origin...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (15 May) - SBI Shinsei, Arteria, Toshiba, Yitai, Hailan, Allkem, Lian Beng

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (34.8%), ARTERIA (24.9%), Estia (21.5%), United Malt (13.9%), AAG Energy (8.8%), Hailan (8.7%),...

Arun George

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