Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the loudest -- it’s the Sector and Group trends. With the exception of Consumer Discretionary, cyclicals continue to outperform.  In addition, bank stocks are recovering from failed breakdowns, aided by a rebound in interest rates and, setting the stage for another leg higher. Asset managers also exhibit strength. In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in both Groups ... pages 9-20

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the loudest -- it’s the Sector and Group trends. With the exception of Consumer Discretionary, cyclicals continue to outperform.  In addition, bank stocks are recovering from failed breakdowns, aided by a rebound in interest rates and, setting the stage for another leg higher. Asset managers also exhibit strength. In today’s report we highlight actionable ideas in both Groups ... pages 9-20

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly: Actionable Banks & Asset Managers

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…</li>
</ul>


Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.
As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.

Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…


'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US President</li><li>The Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.</li><li>The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.</li></ul>

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US PresidentThe Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

<ul><li>The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.</li><li>It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.</li><li>However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.</li></ul>

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

United States

Huntington Bancshares Incorporated is a multi-state bank holding company.  The Company's subsidiaries provide full-service commercial and consumer banking services, mortgage banking services, automobile financing, equipment leasing, investment management, trust services, brokerage services, customized insurance service programs, and other financial products and services.

KeyCorp is a financial services holding company.  The Company provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate and institutional clients.

Citizens Financial Group Inc. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and Institutional customers. The Bank offers consumer loans, commercial loans, mortgage loans, deposit products, internet banking, and trust services.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company and Ironstone Bank.  First-Citizens serves North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.  Ironstone operates in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

East West Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for East-West Bank.  The Bank is a commercial bank specializing in commercial, construction, and real estate lending as well as financing international trade.  East-West operates throughout Los Angeles, Orange, San Francisco and Santa Clara counties.

Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. is a holding company for Pinnacle National Bank. The Bank operates as a community bank emphasizing personal banking relationships with individuals and businesses located in its primary service area, which is comprised of the metropolitan Nashville, Tennessee area and surrounding counties.

Popular, Inc. is a bank holding company that provides commercial banking services through branches in Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the United States mainland. The Company also provides mortgage and consumer finance, lease financing, investment banking, broker and dealer activities, retail financial services, and automated tellers.

First Horizon National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of financial services. The Company offers a variety of commercial banking services and also conducts mortgage banking, capital markets, and transaction processing.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

Regions Financial Corporation is a regional multi-bank holding company.  The Company provides mortgage banking, credit life insurance, leasing, commercial accounts receivable factoring, specialty mortgage financing, and securities brokerage services.  Regions provides banking services throughout the South, Midwest, and Eastern United States.

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Regions Financial (RF US)

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly: Actionable Banks & Asset Managers

The technical narrative of the U.S. equity market remains bullish, and it’s not the S&P 500 and Russell 2000’s new highs that are talking the...

Vermilion Research

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this...

Charles De Trenck

'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance...

Sean Maher

Marketnomix Insights : United States

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the...

Rajan Govil

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last...

Dechert LLP

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