Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.</p><p>The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.</p><p>We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.</p><p>Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.</p>

The Indian mutual fund industry has assets of almost INR 7.93 trillion (US$106.3bn) across Multi cap, Large Cap, Large and Mid Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Flexi Cap equity schemes. Equity schemes classified as large cap need to have at least 80% of their assets invested in large cap stocks, large and mid cap schemes need to have at least 35% of their assets in large cap stocks and at least 35% in mid cap stocks, mid cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in mid cap stocks, and small cap funds need to hold at least 65% of their assets in small cap stocks. Flexi cap funds can invest across market caps.The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) publishes the list of the stocks in each market cap segment in January and July each year and mutual funds have one month to rebalance their portfolios to adhere to the new categorization.We are just past halfway through the review period for the second half of 2021. Using data to the close on 4 October, at the next recategorization in January 2022, we see 10 stocks moving from the mid cap segment to the large cap segment, 11 stocks moving from the large cap segment to the mid cap segment , 11 stocks are expected to move from the small cap segment to the mid cap segment, with16 stocks moving from the mid cap to the small cap segment. Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will be a part of the large cap universe, while 4 other newly listed stocks will be a part of the mid cap universe.Historically, stocks moving to a higher market cap category have outperformed stocks that migrate to a lower market cap category over the back half of the review period. In some cases, the outperformance continues past the announcement of the changes as well. This can be attributed to fund managers realigning their portfolios to meet the new categorization. This provides opportunities to pre-position for the move and unwind post the announcement of the reclassification.

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), LKP Securities

LKP Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>crystallizing into NPLs in coming quarters. However, the provisioning expense of 14.3bn (7.7bn in 4QFY21) has translated into substantial improvement in PCR to 76.3%. Moreover, the covid provisioning (6.5bn) stood 114bps of net advances. The Bank witnessed 19bps improvement in NIMs to 4.36% because of healthy YoA (11.6% v/s 11.2% sequentially) and reduction in CoF (5.27% v/s 5.45% sequentially). As expected, the bank reported a credit de-growth of 3.6 % sequentially. We estimate the growth to remain tepid for FY22E but adequate provision is likely to give comfort to the balance sheet.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

crystallizing into NPLs in coming quarters. However, the provisioning expense of 14.3bn (7.7bn in 4QFY21) has translated into substantial improvement in PCR to 76.3%. Moreover, the covid provisioning (6.5bn) stood 114bps of net advances. The Bank witnessed 19bps improvement in NIMs to 4.36% because of healthy YoA (11.6% v/s 11.2% sequentially) and reduction in CoF (5.27% v/s 5.45% sequentially). As expected, the bank reported a credit de-growth of 3.6 % sequentially. We estimate the growth to remain tepid for FY22E but adequate provision is likely to give comfort to the balance sheet.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

RBL BANK ....upfront provisioning with high coverage build-up

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Chola Securities

Chola Wealth Direct

<p>Background: RBL bank (RBL) came into operations in 1943 and was incorporated as a small, regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kohlapur and Sangli. Post the change in the management team in 2010, it has been one among the fastest growing private sector banks and now has 435 interconnected branches and 380 interconnected ATMs spread across 28 Indian states and union territories serving ~9.8mn customers.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Background: RBL bank (RBL) came into operations in 1943 and was incorporated as a small, regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kohlapur and Sangli. Post the change in the management team in 2010, it has been one among the fastest growing private sector banks and now has 435 interconnected branches and 380 interconnected ATMs spread across 28 Indian states and union territories serving ~9.8mn customers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Edelweiss Broking Limited

Edelweiss

<p>Accelerated provisioning leads to loss</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Accelerated provisioning leads to lossContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

<p>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s decision to grant a 1-year <a href="https://ir.rblbank.com/pdfs/regulatory/ReappointmentofMDCEOMrVishwavirAhujaFinal2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extension</a> to  Vishwavir Ahuja, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rbl-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22856:1" rel="noopener">RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN)</a> is similar to the 1-year extensions it provided to <a href="https://www.dcbbank.com/pdfs/BSENSEReAppointmentOfMDANDCEOApril2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Murali Natarajan</a>, CEO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcb-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1557:1" rel="noopener">Dcb Bank Ltd (DCBB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/d8768272-3bd1-4d07-808b-43b725fcdc69.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shyam Srinivasan</a>, CEO <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)</a>. In recent times, Udak Kotak, CEO-founder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>(KMB) enjoys the unique distinction of getting a <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/d5faa2b3-1886-42a9-af9d-960ff207a4ce.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3-year</a>  extension by the regulator, despite having been a CEO for over 15 years, contradicting RBI’s <a href="https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12078&amp;Mode=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">policy</a>  regarding the maximum tenure for bank CEOs.</p><p>There are three issues raised by RBI’s conduct. Firstly, the decision to favour Uday Kotak and KMB is plainly <a href="https://thewire.in/banking/uday-kotak-ceo-kotak-mahindra-bank-rbi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">partisan</a>, undermining the credibility of the banking regulator. Secondly, by granting three private bank CEOs only a 1-year extension, is the regulator indicating to the banks its displeasure with the existing CEOs and the need to find a replacement in the course of the year? Although the RBI granted Shyam Srinivasan a second 1-year extension last year, the Federal Bank board of directors has <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/federal-bank-board-seeks-another-3-year-term-for-ceo/articleshow/81639243.cms?from=mdr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sought</a>  a 3-year extension when his term ends on September 29, 2021, indicating that the bank has chosen not to read the regulator’s tea leaves – or that the RBI did not give any such indication to the bank to look for a successor. If the RBI were to approve a further term to Shyam Srinivasan, it would raise questions about the regulator’s competence; what was the justification for repeated 1-year extensions? Thirdly, RBI’s policy of renewing CEOs with 1-year tenures unnecessarily introduces uncertainty in a bank’s future strategy: the existing CEO and the bank can plan for only one year, as the RBI may insist on a replacement at the end of the year.   Such short-term planning, especially in the current environment of economic stress, can be disruptive to the bank and its stakeholders, and it is unfortunate that it is being caused by the regulator’s decision to approve only 1-year extensions, without any explanation to the public.</p><p>The capital market plays an important role for private banks, and the regulator must either be more transparent in explaining its decisions or it should reconsider its policy of granting 1-year extensions even when the candidates are conforming to the regulator’s norms of age and tenure for the CEOs. It is tragic that the RBI’s credibility as an impartial regulator has reached a nadir. Latest developments -- the favoured treatment it has meted to Uday Kotak, and its inability to comprehend the significance of its decision to renew CEO tenures for only  one year -- take its credibility even lower.</p>

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s decision to grant a 1-year extension to  Vishwavir Ahuja, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN) is similar to the 1-year extensions it provided to Murali Natarajan, CEO, Dcb Bank Ltd (DCBB IN) and Shyam Srinivasan, CEO Federal Bank (FB IN). In recent times, Udak Kotak, CEO-founder, Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)(KMB) enjoys the unique distinction of getting a 3-year  extension by the regulator, despite having been a CEO for over 15 years, contradicting RBI’s policy  regarding the maximum tenure for bank CEOs.There are three issues raised by RBI’s conduct. Firstly, the decision to favour Uday Kotak and KMB is plainly partisan, undermining the credibility of the banking regulator. Secondly, by granting three private bank CEOs only a 1-year extension, is the regulator indicating to the banks its displeasure with the existing CEOs and the need to find a replacement in the course of the year? Although the RBI granted Shyam Srinivasan a second 1-year extension last year, the Federal Bank board of directors has sought  a 3-year extension when his term ends on September 29, 2021, indicating that the bank has chosen not to read the regulator’s tea leaves – or that the RBI did not give any such indication to the bank to look for a successor. If the RBI were to approve a further term to Shyam Srinivasan, it would raise questions about the regulator’s competence; what was the justification for repeated 1-year extensions? Thirdly, RBI’s policy of renewing CEOs with 1-year tenures unnecessarily introduces uncertainty in a bank’s future strategy: the existing CEO and the bank can plan for only one year, as the RBI may insist on a replacement at the end of the year.   Such short-term planning, especially in the current environment of economic stress, can be disruptive to the bank and its stakeholders, and it is unfortunate that it is being caused by the regulator’s decision to approve only 1-year extensions, without any explanation to the public.The capital market plays an important role for private banks, and the regulator must either be more transparent in explaining its decisions or it should reconsider its policy of granting 1-year extensions even when the candidates are conforming to the regulator’s norms of age and tenure for the CEOs. It is tragic that the RBI’s credibility as an impartial regulator has reached a nadir. Latest developments -- the favoured treatment it has meted to Uday Kotak, and its inability to comprehend the significance of its decision to renew CEO tenures for only  one year -- take its credibility even lower.

RBI’s 1-Year Extensions to Bank CEOs: Creating Uncertainty and Short-Termism

India

RBL Bank Limited operates as a commercial bank. The Company offers banking products and services such as savings accounts, fixed deposits, personal and business loans, debit and credit cards, insurance, investment management, and mobile banking. RBL Bank serves customers throughout India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN)

India: Stock Reclassification & Active Portfolio Management (Dec 2021)

Halfway through the review period, we take a look at stocks that could migrate across the large, mid and small cap segments. With over US$100bn of...

Brian Freitas

RBL BANK ....upfront provisioning with high coverage build-up

crystallizing into NPLs in coming quarters. However, the provisioning expense of 14.3bn (7.7bn in 4QFY21) has translated into substantial...

LKP Securities

EARNINGS UPDATE- RBL BANK LTD 1QFY22

Background: RBL bank (RBL) came into operations in 1943 and was incorporated as a small, regional bank in Maharashtra with two branches in Kohlapur...

Chola Wealth Direct

RBL Bank Ltd. Rs Q1FY22 Result Update

Accelerated provisioning leads to loss

Edelweiss

RBI’s 1-Year Extensions to Bank CEOs: Creating Uncertainty and Short-Termism

The favoured treatment RBI has meted to Uday Kotak, and its inability to comprehend the significance of its decision to renew CEO tenures for only ...

Hemindra Hazari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)